Iraq: Will reform lead to an earthquake or to the collapse of the state?
Iraq: Will reform lead to an earthquake or to the collapse of the state?
2026-07-11 05:22
Sirwan Saad
Caught between the hammer of fragile compromises and the anvil of entrenched poverty, the citizen remains trapped in the role of the “victim.” Iraq stands today at a pivotal historical juncture, one that transcends mere corruption; it reaches the point of resembling the “building of a new system” within the very foundations of the state.
What is happening in Iraq is not just an increase in theft or a decline in service delivery; it is a radical transformation in the “method of governance.” The formal institutions have been replaced by a “shadow system.” This system is not a recent phenomenon; it is the result of two decades of the conflation of power and money. Now, ministries and directorates resemble investment fiefdoms run according to a quota-based mentality. They are governed by transnational networks of influence, networks that have mastered legalized corruption—that is, transforming organized crime into administrative procedures that meet paperwork requirements. Corruption continues to obstruct development in Iraq; the reason is the reliance on “mutual protection.” Every official possesses enough files and secrets to topple an entire system. This creates a “balance of terror” and prevents any real accountability. The networks thrive on fictitious contracts and projects that exist only on paper. They have the ability to easily restructure themselves, exploiting loopholes in laws designed to provide refuge for corruption. Automation and digitalization have become powerful adversaries of this system because they know very well that
Moving to digital governance means revealing what was hidden and removing the secrecy of the corrupt.
In the midst of this minefield, the recent movement led by Ali al-Zaidi poses an existential question: Can we eradicate corruption without dismantling the system that created it? Or, in other words, how will we confront the system that spawned it? The challenge facing Ali al-Zaidi is not merely technical or legal; it is also a political and existential one. Those who stand to lose from any serious reform have media outlets, tools for exerting pressure on the ground, and the ability to paralyze the vital institutions of the state. In my view, political history demonstrates that change from within a besieged system is a perilous step unless it is founded on broad popular legitimacy that transcends all divisions. The judiciary remains under political pressure despite its efforts; unless it receives unwavering public support, it will not back down or remain a passive observer. The continuation of this situation pushes the country toward a point of no return in social disintegration. Citizens lose faith in the concept of the state, and corruption transforms from a clandestine activity into a pervasive culture, seen as the only path to survival when justice is absent and opportunities for equality vanish. We face a genuine danger: the erosion of state sovereignty in favor of the supremacy of private interests. This danger threatens a complete collapse of the social fabric, because society has lost confidence in everything official.
Saving Iraq from this dark tunnel requires neither temporary solutions nor seasonal clean-up campaigns. What is needed is the re-establishment of the principle of accountability. No one is above the law. Remaining in office must be contingent upon complete transparency. Furthermore, the international community must participate in tracking down funds smuggled through international tax havens. Iraq now faces not only a financial crisis, but also a crisis of legitimacy within its institutions. This crisis can only be resolved by a political earthquake that puts an end to the era of exceptions and subjects everyone to the law. If this change does not occur, investigations will continue as mere palliatives for a body ravaged by corruption to the bone. The stakes today are not who assumes power, but rather the people’s ability to dismantle the network of forces that has transformed Iraq into a republic of shadows. Breaking this network will require immense sacrifices and decisions that could forever alter the future of Iraqi politics.
In light of this stark diagnosis, do you believe that the political elite has the capacity to reform the system it built itself? If it cannot reform the system, does radical change require a “political earthquake” from outside the traditional rules?
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