Internal and external debts “exhaust” the Iraqi budget, and experts diagnose the reasons

Internal and external debts “exhaust” the Iraqi budget, and experts diagnose the reasons

2024-09-30 04:37

Shafaq News/ The Iraqi government took a series of measures to reduce the external public debt from the financial surpluses achieved as a result of the rise in oil prices, and succeeded in reducing it. However, in return, the internal debt rose to exceed 70 trillion dinars to bridge the gap in financial liquidity and operating expenses.

Iraq continued to borrow externally after 2003, especially during the oil price collapse that coincided with security operations against ISIS in 2014, in addition to internal borrowing to cover the country’s general budget deficit.

The International Monetary Fund said that Iraq’s internal imbalances were exacerbated by the large financial expansion and the decline in oil prices, noting that Iraq needs to gradually correct the public finances to achieve debt stability in the medium term and rebuild financial reserves.

“Dead” debts

Member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Kojer, said in an interview with Shafaq News Agency, “The external debt found in the reports available to us is a dead debt related to the Gulf War. These debts date back more than 30 years and countries do not demand them, so they are not real debts. If the Iraqi state demands their cancellation, they will be cancelled.”

He points out that “the internal debt, which exceeds 70 trillion Iraqi dinars, is gradually increasing because the state’s revenues are less than expenditures, and despite that, it is not a frightening debt.”

According to official data, Iraq’s internal debts amount to $50 billion, which are collected within the official and governmental financial apparatus, in addition to the existence of outstanding debts to eight countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates and Kuwait, amounting to $40 billion. These debts are questionable from Iraq’s point of view and have not been written off, despite being subject to the Paris Club.

Low external debt

In turn, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, explained in an interview with Shafaq News Agency, that “Iraq is considered one of the countries with very little external debt, as the total debts due do not exceed 10 billion dollars, and these have annual allocations in the federal general budget to extinguish them, and they must be extinguished by 2028.”

“The external debt is the remnants of the pre-1990 settlements,” he added, noting that “Iraq is considered to have high creditworthiness according to the classification of international companies such as S&P Global Ratings and Fitch, and therefore the external debt does not exceed 5% of the gross domestic product compared to the international standard that accepts debts up to 60% of the gross domestic product.”

Saleh points out that “there are internal debts amounting to 76 trillion dinars caused by two financial crises, the first of which was between 2014 and 2017, which was the war against ISIS terrorism and the decline in oil prices, and the second crisis was the Corona pandemic, which led to the closure of global markets and a significant decline in oil prices, and thus large borrowings occurred.”

He stresses that “domestic debt generally does not exceed 30% of the gross domestic product and is a debt within the government and not between the government and individuals or the market, and there are mechanisms to extinguish it within the government’s financial and banking system, and therefore there are no risks.”

Debt is not the perfect solution.

However, the economic expert, Dhurgham Muhammad Ali, sees the opposite of what the financial advisor said, and says in an interview with Shafaq News Agency, “The internal debts also pose a danger because they must be paid and must not exceed 50% of the country’s annual gross domestic product.”

He added, “Expanding domestic borrowing is not the ideal solution to cover the budget deficit, but rather it is an easy way to cover the deficit using primitive but effective methods, as long as they do not exceed the required limit, especially in light of the decline in financial inclusion and the low rates of bank deposits for the Iraqi citizen compared to neighboring countries.”

He explains that “combating corruption and following up on Iraq’s money that has been swallowed by corruption over the past years is slow and ineffective and faces obstacles and challenges, and recovering this money could pay off many internal debts.”

hard currency

For his part, economic expert Hilal Al-Taan confirmed, in an interview with Shafaq News Agency, that “the internal debts do not have a significant impact on the Iraqi economy, and most of them are in favor of the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, and other ministries.”

He believes that “the major impact on the economy is on foreign debts because they are settled in hard currency, unlike domestic debts, which are settled in national currency. The state must first reduce foreign debts.”

The largest part of the domestic debt is owed to the Central Bank of Iraq, the Rafidain and Rashid banks, and the Trade Bank of Iraq, which lent the government large sums of money to cover the federal budget deficit.

shafaq.com