Disqualification Maliki doubled the responsibility of Washington in Iraq
Disqualification Maliki doubled the responsibility of Washington in Iraq
06/09/2014 (00:01 pm)
Translation term
The decision by al-Maliki withdraw his candidacy for a third term as prime minister is an important step forward for Iraq, but it was a necessary condition – not enough – for progress. This means that al-Maliki is no longer an obstacle to reform the political system to re disaffected Sunnis and Shiites and Kurds into the political process. Even so, these reforms still need a lot of work.
We do not know precisely what is accepted by these components, but have a long list of demands. These demands can be summarized in three broad issues and the task is; define the powers of the central government (in particular the powers of the Prime Minister’s Office); switch to a federal system truly possesses the Iraqi provinces and territories the powers (including military and financial); and comprehensive reform of the security services to make sure not to use it as a tool to suppress any of these components. May be easy to write these demands, but the implementation is very difficult, we do not know whether Prime Minister-designate Haider Abadi, the level of this challenge.
Abadi was working behind the scenes, and Homarov being smart and practical but it’s never been chief executive or political leader known widely. Moreover, many of the demands of the Sunnis and the Kurds seem very reasonable for them (and for many of the foreigners in view of the treatment they received under al-Maliki), but it looks difficult for many Shiites.
This suggests that Iraq can enter into a long period of negotiations – hope that comes after the inauguration of a new government, but that may not happen. Even if the negotiations came after the inauguration, it could cripple the government and prevent it from actor’s performance against the deep and urgent challenges facing Iraq today. And when it is finally reached deals, some of the reforms may need to constitutional amendments, and this can be argumentative and time-consuming. In other words, Iraq is still a long road in front of him to cut it.
The biggest challenge now is to maintain the progress the Iraqis on the political front and at the same time fight Daash and other armed groups. The danger is that most of the former opposition – Sunni and Kurdish and Shiite – want to work in tandem; political reforms first, and after that will be settled are unhappy will begin work on the bodice offers Daash and others. This seems quite reasonable for them where they will have the greatest influence to ensure those changes by withholding their participation in a joint military campaign.
This process may extend for a very long time, has never reach the end of the occasion. To this must be on hand to convince them what to move toward political reform and military counter-attack at one time, and this party must be the United States.
The Obama administration deserves praise for adopting the correct strategy and dealing with the Iraq crisis well since the month of June (this does not mean to acquit her of the disastrous role in bringing about the current crisis as a result of the disastrous policy toward Iraq before June).
But the truth is that the Iranians and the religious authority of the two Americans brought to this point, they are called from the Shiite militias to stop the Trooping the Daash attack on Baghdad, as united in Tehran and Najaf, the Shiite leadership eventually forced Maliki to step down. It is true that Washington played a role in it, but he was only a supporting role.
The ball today in the court of Washington, because the Kurds and Sunnis are must now offers major concessions, where they had to agree to fight at a time when negotiating in Baghdad, not the Iranians and bookmark influence over them, but can the United States and the Sunni Arab states and Turkey that affect them.
So the next steps in Iraq requires the participation of large American and effective and more determined (and perhaps at a high level) in order to succeed. Here the United States has the source of the influence of an important new, Valdharbat air carried out in defense of Kurdistan, was influential and is considered an important element in stopping the progress Daash enabled the Kurds to regain the territory of the task (including the Mosul Dam), also provided arms and advice to the Kurds has impressed Iraqis all.
For the first time the Obama administration announced its willingness to allocate military resources to save Iraq, and that the Arabs of Iraq – Shiites and Sunnis Almatdelan- will want something from this support in their fight against Daash. This gives Washington the first real influence.
The key for the United States is to demonstrate to the Iraqi military support what you want to presenting them in the event their desire and ability to fight as a group united against the extremists.
So far the Americans was very specific about what they want from the Iraqis and very vague on what the United States wants presented to them in return. This also undermined America’s influence in Baghdad so far.
It is very important that the Iraqis are beginning to look at this ambiguity as a signal that the United States will not provide the same level of support to any anti-Iraqi attack, as it did in defense of Kurdistan.
The other thing is that the United States, Turkey and Sunni Arab states to convince the moderate Sunni Arabs in Iraq to accept hints of goodwill by the new Iraqi government and not to wait for the achievement of political reform process is complete. For example, instead of a complete overhaul of the Iraqi armed forces, the United States should try to convince the Sunnis to accept the output of 15-20 military commander of the leaders of al-Maliki’s most corrupt and sectarian lines, with the commitment of advisers and trainers Americans under the guidance and re-training of the Iraqi formations.
This can be done similar concessions in other areas – for example, by passing and implementing a list of provincial powers suspended in Parliament for a long time, or solve Office of the Adjutant General of the Armed Forces who used al-Maliki in a lot of nefarious deeds against his political rivals.
Again, it was a concession Maliki good first step, but that this is a journey of a thousand miles and the Iraqis to go down this road quickly. Iranians and gave them the first batch of reference, now it’s up to the United States and its allies in maintaining their progress.
for: Brookings
almadapaper.net
