Clear Iranian loss in Kurdistan elections

Clear Iranian loss in Kurdistan elections

10-24-2024

Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan) – Iran and its allies in Baghdad have failed in their plans to influence the elections held in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq by supporting the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and seeking to reduce the number of seats held by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in the regional parliament. Iran’s loss in its bet on consolidating its influence in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq comes within a regional context marked by a decline in the Iranian role.

The Independent High Electoral Commission in Iraq announced during a press conference on Monday that the Kurdistan Democratic Party won the parliamentary elections in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, obtaining 809,197 votes, far ahead of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which obtained 408,141 votes. This shows that the Democratic Party maintained its usual leadership, and that the Union did not achieve what it had planned to achieve, supported by Tehran and Baghdad.

The election results were in line with what the Democratic Party considered the culmination of a series of important achievements made by Masrour Barzani’s government in the region. The Iranians were betting on strengthening the fortunes of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, a long-time ally, amid leaks indicating generous support that enabled the party to secure regular salaries for its Peshmerga forces.

Tehran pushed its allies in Baghdad to move to secure the PUK’s control of parliament to change the system of government or at least balance the results with the KDP, which did not accept to move under the Iranian umbrella. But the Kurds, including those in the area bordering Iran controlled by the PUK, chose the moderate KDP, which is closer to the West and capable of balancing the region’s interests with Iran and its ruling parties and militias in Baghdad.

A Union victory would have automatically put the region under Iranian influence and strengthened the central government, which had withdrawn the region’s elements of power, i.e. oil exports and disposal of its revenues, and put the Kurds under pressure by controlling the salaries of employees and Peshmerga forces. In Sulaymaniyah, which is controlled by the Union Party, the authorities’ decision to force the militants of the Kurdish parties opposed to Iran and their cadres to forcibly evacuate all their headquarters in southern Sulaymaniyah and disarm them angered the Kurds.

Observers of Kurdish affairs believe that this fact, which was an implementation of Iranian pressure, was influential in voting against the union and supporting its democratic opponent or giving confidence to other parties. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan made changing the course of government in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq a main theme of its election campaign, backed by Iranian promises of support.

Qubad Talabani, a leader in the party, said that during the past three years, the union, under the leadership of its president, Bafel Talabani, has been able to reorganize itself to effectively change the style of governance in the Kurdistan Region. The Iranian parties in Baghdad helped the Patriotic Union obtain the position of governor of Kirkuk, a strategic province that has always been the focus of sectarian and ethnic conflict, and this was done in the absence of representatives of the Democratic Party, Turkmen and some Arab members.

Officials in the Democratic Party did not hide their fear that the legal and procedural amendments approved for the regional elections were an echo of the relations of the Talabani Party leadership with the militias linked to Iran, which have great influence within the institutions of the federal state, including the judiciary.

After the announcement of the preliminary results of Sunday’s elections, the President of the region, Nechirvan Barzani, called for the formation of a new government capable of enhancing stability and building a stronger economy, in a move aimed at gaining time and not leaving any opportunity for any vacuum that Iran and its arms could exploit to confuse the Kurdish political scene.

Barzani stressed, in a press statement, the formation of a government that also works to “achieve more rights, which is an urgent necessity and a priority at this stage to confront the current challenges and build our common future, and achieving this requires enjoying the spirit of cohesion, solidarity and cooperation between all political parties and components.”

The position of the Kurdistan Regional President was supported by the United States. US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said that Washington is urging political parties in Iraqi Kurdistan to engage in dialogue to form a stable government quickly. “What we saw was a high turnout and elections that took place without major security incidents,” Patel said in a press briefing. The preliminary results of the elections have drawn criticism from some political parties and entities, in light of what they considered an unexpected increase in votes for the two main parties.

◙ The Kurds, including those in the area bordering Iran controlled by the Union, chose the moderate and project-driven Democratic Party.

Entities such as the People’s Front, the Position Current and the Kurdistan Justice Group say they will take all necessary measures to object to the results. Ali Hama Saleh, head of the Position Current, which split from the Change Movement, confirmed in a press conference that the election results were skewed in favor of political parties, noting that the results of some centers caused social problems among some families and couples, to the point of using oaths, because the number of votes contradicted the announced results, which proves the lack of integrity and transparency of the election process.

Saleh revealed that as head of the Al-Mawqif Movement list, he received more than 50,000 votes in the Sulaymaniyah district alone, but according to the results, he only received 16,000 votes. More than two million voters out of about 2.9 million registered to vote in the four districts in the region’s elections, according to the commission, voted to elect 100 members of parliament, no less than 30 percent of whom are women.

The Chairman of the Board of Commissioners of the Independent High Electoral Commission, Omar Ahmed, said on Monday, during a press conference in Baghdad, that “the voting rate in the general and special elections reached 72 percent (…) and the results constitute 99.63 percent of the total results of the stations.”

The first phase of voting, known as the “special vote” for security forces, took place on Friday, with more than 208,000 voters casting their ballots, with a turnout of 97 percent, according to the commission. The second phase, known as the “general vote,” took place on Sunday.

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) had a relative majority in the outgoing parliament with 45 seats and formed alliances with deputies elected under a quota system for the Christian and Turkmen minorities, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) held 21 seats. The New Generation movement held only eight seats. Turnout in the 2018 legislative elections was about 59 percent, according to the official website of the Kurdish parliament.

Tehran has lost the power of its most prominent arms in the region, in light of Israel’s strikes on Hamas and Hezbollah, dismantling their military capabilities, eliminating their most prominent leaders, and targeting the Iranian presence in Syria in a way that led to the killing of prominent leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, as happened in the attack on the Tehran consulate in Damascus. The Houthis are constantly exposed to American strikes, the latest of which was by B-2 bombers that targeted underground weapons depots.

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