“Changes are coming inevitably”.. What awaits Iraq after January 20?

“Changes are coming inevitably”.. What awaits Iraq after January 20?

2025-01-06 05:38

Shafaq News/ “Changes are coming inevitably, and Iraq will be part of the new Middle East,” this is what a number of observers expect about the next stage after Donald Trump assumes the US presidency on Monday, January 20.

Based on the analysis of the head of the “Political Thinking” Center, Ihsan Al-Shammari, “Trump’s strategy towards Iraq differs from his first term, in which he used the strategy of maximum pressure and direct intervention on the Iraqi ground, but currently it is not possible to talk again about the possibility of adopting this strategy.”

Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, he indicated that “the current approach will depend on several levels. The first will target Iran’s allies and undermine them politically inside Iraq. The second level will be dismantling the factions with Iraqi conviction or through an imposition process that may be carried out by including more of these factions and their leaders on the terrorism lists. The third level will be restricting their financial assets and monitoring their economic fronts.”

He added, “Trump’s strategy will depend on severing the relationship between Iraq and Iran once and for all. That is, Trump will not rely on the gray area in which Iran’s allies maneuvered in the past. Therefore, the current and future Iraqi government will have to reveal the truth about its relations with the United States of America, and Trump will not accept a government that is an enemy of the United States of America.”

He stresses that “Trump considers the factions to be a threat to American interests, and he still remembers the bad relationship with them when he was President of the United States, including the attack on the embassy and the bombing operations, so Trump will present a more solid strategy than Biden’s strategy, which relied on flexibility.”

Al-Shammari continues, “If Al-Sudani’s government does not abide by Trump’s conditions, there may be some alignment between Washington and Tel Aviv to stop this Iranian influence inside Iraq, and it is likely that Iraq will be part of the new Middle East regardless of Iraqi internal speeches or positions.”

“Changes are coming”

For his part, academic and researcher in Iranian and regional affairs, Dr. Jalal Jaraghi, says, “Changes in the region are inevitably coming during Trump’s presidential term, and these changes will be in the interest of the Zionist entity, which will have a wide scope to implement its policies and plans in the region at the expense of Arab regional governments.”

“Trump works alone and sometimes exceeds American rules and the framework of the usual and declared policies of the United States, so it is expected that Trump will overcome the obstacles facing the current American administration headed by Biden,” Jaraghi told Shafaq News Agency.

Jaraghi expects that “Trump’s policies towards the region will be towards establishing stability and calm, because he previously announced his desire to end wars in the region, but this does not mean at the expense of the Zionist entity, rather he will work in the interest of the entity at the expense of regional countries.”

However, the director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, Hussein Al-Momani, believes that “it is too early to judge Trump’s second presidency, and that most of the judgments issued on Trump’s policy are from his first presidency, but when talking about the year 2025, there are many variables in the region and the world as well as within the United States, so he will not resort to his previous policy in light of the current developments.”

Al-Momani added to Shafaq News Agency, “Despite Trump’s pledge to bring peace to the region, it is expected that there will be an American clash there.”

“The coming days are politically tense”

This is also what the Turkish political analyst, Jawad Gok, confirms, as he expects during his interview with Shafaq News Agency, that “the coming days will be politically tense, in light of the American threats to the Iraqi political parties affiliated with the resistance, as well as its threat to Hamas and the necessity of releasing the Israeli detainees it holds.”

For his part, the international law consultant, Dr. Hadi Issa Dalloul, says, “Trump will move on Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. As for Iraq, he will turn the occupation into an investment, and in Syria, he will work to create a clash between the new authority and ISIS to enter it under the pretext of securing civilians.”

Daloul added to Shafaq News Agency, “As for Lebanon, Trump will work to bring a president and appoint a prime minister who are in line with America.”

Jordanian political analyst Hazem Ayyad explains Trump’s expected dealings with Iraq and Iran, saying, “Trump wants to exert more pressure on the Iranian side and achieve more gains in terms of harsh economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran, or by threatening to go further by exerting military pressure, as some people close to this administration say.”

Ayyad continued to Shafaq News Agency, “This trend of imposing more pressure on Iran and using a harsher policy means putting pressure on the Iraqi side, as Iraq is part of the lung through which Iran breathes economically through the so-called exceptions to the economic sanctions that Iraq enjoys in its dealings with Iran regarding gas imports and some commercial transactions.”

He explains that “this policy gained momentum after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime towards trying to exert more pressure on the Iraqi arena to reshape and engineer the internal scene in a way that allows for the economic and political pressure on Iran and even to restrict its influence in the Iraqi arena.”

Dealing with Iraq depends on Syria

Ayyad added, “But these trends may face difficulties, as the scene in Syria is still ambiguous and may create more complications for America in its relationship with Turkey or with the government in Damascus, especially in light of the existence of a crisis file related to the (SDF) forces and their fate in the northeast of the Euphrates, as this file may develop in a negative way that weakens the American policy directions to exert pressure on the Iraqi side and disperses the American administration’s ability to do so.”

He continued, “Therefore, the American side must adopt a policy with a greater degree of flexibility to support its presence in Iraqi territory through its military bases, which are the starting point for its activity in Syria. Therefore, the American administration may need Iraq to draw certain balances with Damascus.”

He explains, “Although there is a possibility of rapid shifts and transformations in American policy, especially since Trump shows a volatile mood, especially when things reach the brink of war and attrition, this does not mean that Trump will not resort to harsh methods in Iraq at certain stages, but this approach will remain in a state of fluctuation between Syria and the Iraqi arena.”

Ayyad asserts that “any rapprochement between Syria, Turkey and Iran will reflect on Iraq and will strengthen the position of these countries in dealing with the American side, meaning that the ability of these countries to cooperate with each other will narrow the room for maneuver for the Trump administration, and this requires Iraq and Iran to take the initiative towards Syria and Turkey in the next stage, and perhaps it will be one of the solutions that contribute to restricting the next American administration and curbing its tendency to escalate towards Iraq or Iran.”

Ayyad concluded by saying, “This requires a great deal of dialogue between the Iraqi, Turkish, Iranian, and Syrian regional parties, and this step is still missing in its complete form that could contribute to narrowing the margin of maneuver for the next US administration.”

shafaq.com