British reading of the Iraqi position on the Syrian developments: Al-Sudani will suffer

British reading of the Iraqi position on the Syrian developments: Al-Sudani will suffer

2024-12-07 05:50

Shafaq News/ A report by the British website “Amwaj” confirmed on Saturday that the call of the leader of “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” Abu Muhammad al-Julani to the Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani not to interfere in the Syrian fighting, “will not be listened to” in Iraq, but the report stated that al-Sudani will suffer from the position of the Iraqi factions regarding the developments in Syria, just as he suffered from them in the war between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah later.

The British report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, indicated that “despite the call made by al-Julani, who says he has abandoned his ties to al-Qaeda, al-Sudani stressed his continued support for the Syrian government, while at the same time continuing to reject calls from his allies from the Iraqi forces that called for direct intervention against the attack of “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”, which is classified as a terrorist organization by the United States.”

The report mentioned a statement by one of Al-Sudani’s advisors, Hussein Alawi, hours after Al-Julani’s video that he directed to the Iraqis, where the Iraqi advisor said that the Iraqi government will not stand idly by, while the other advisor, Fadi Al-Shammari, said that Iraq will not intervene directly militarily by sending forces from the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Political positions

The report reviewed a group of positions of Iraqi political forces, including the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, who called for avoiding intervention, and former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who said, “We are not neutral and we will fight anywhere in defense of Islam and Muslims. The events in Syria are just the beginning of a new project, and we must protect Iraq from sleeper cells anywhere through national unity.”

The report also discussed the positions of the head of the Popular Mobilization Authority, Faleh al-Fayyadh, and the spokesman for the Hezbollah Brigades, Jaafar al-Husseini, who threatened al-Julani and his organization.

The report stated that Al-Sudani’s clear commitment not to interfere in Syria came after great ambiguity about whether this also applies to the armed groups supported by Iran that fall outside the scope of the Iraqi army or that have an ambiguous relationship with it, although Al-Sudani is considered the supreme commander of the armed forces and the Popular Mobilization Forces are part of the regular forces, but there are differences and competition between the factions within its framework.

The report indicated that since the start of the attack by “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham”, some Shiite political and military leaders have expressed their concerns, recalling the rapid advance of ISIS militants in northern Iraq in 2014, which included large massacres against Shiites and Yazidis, in addition to the violence suffered by other Iraqis, including Sunnis themselves, under the control of the organization.

Axis of Resistance

The report noted that other Iraqi leaders expressed their concerns regarding the “Axis of Resistance” led by Iran, which brings together Iraqi, Yemeni and Lebanese forces in addition to the Syrian government. These concerns are linked to the possibility that the fall of the Assad government will disrupt the supply lines of weapons and fighters between the members and forces of the axis, given the centrality of Syria’s location, which has led some to describe it as the “Achilles heel” of the network of axis countries.

The report continued by saying that in light of these geopolitical dynamics, and with the attack led by the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” organization on the same day that the ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah came into effect, this raised accusations in Iraqi political circles that this Islamic organization is working in cooperation with Israel.

The report concluded by saying, “Al-Julani’s diplomatic campaign, which aims to allay Baghdad’s concerns about the rule of “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” is likely to fall on deaf ears, adding that while al-Julani has sought over the years to present himself as a respected military figure, including severing ties with al-Qaeda and ISIS, it appears that changing his image has achieved only limited success in Iraq.

Regional and geopolitical winds

Therefore, the report said that at the present time, it seems that the current position of the Iraqi government, which is not to interfere in Syria, still stands, but “any shift in regional and geopolitical winds may require Al-Sudani to recalculate his calculations.”

The report concluded by saying that circumstances may also force the Iraqi Prime Minister to do so, noting that just as al-Sudani was unable to prevent the active factions in the “resistance” from attacking Israel, he will also suffer in his attempt to prevent them from intervening in Syria, adding that the possibility of Israeli air strikes on Iran’s allies if they enter Syria is a factor preventing them from doing so.

shafaq.com