Analysis detailing the reasons for the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar over 21 years
Analysis detailing the reasons for the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar over 21 years
2025-02-28 02:04
Shafaq News/ The “Iraq Al-Mustaqbal” Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations attributed, on Friday, the reasons for the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dinar against the US dollar in the parallel market over more than two decades in the country to internal and external factors.
This came according to an analysis issued by the institution, in which it explained these fluctuations from 2005 until 2024.
The institution stated in its analysis that “the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar in the parallel market witnessed noticeable fluctuations over the course of 21 years, as it was affected by a group of factors ranging from political, legislative and economic.”
The analysis added that “supply and demand were the most influential, as the patterns of exchange rate changes differed according to the months of the year as a result of internal and external factors, such as the timing of the launch of the general budget and official holidays in major countries exporting goods to Iraq, such as China and Iran.”
He pointed out that “by analyzing the exchange rate data in the parallel market from 2005 to 2024, there appears to be a recurring pattern that reflects the dinar’s value being affected by specific months more than others.”
According to the institution, “December was the month with the most frequent increase in the value of the dinar, as it witnessed a decline in 13 years out of 21 years, followed by: August and June with increases in the value of the dinar against the dollar in 11 years, then April 10 times, while October and November witnessed an increase 9 times, and March 8 times.”
May was the month with the least frequent decline in the value of the dinar, as its value rose only 4 times during the period studied, which gives a semi-impression that the prices of the dinar against the dollar rise in the months of February, March and April, then decline again against the dollar in May as a result of the strong return of demand in May.
The institution warned in its analysis that “despite this clear seasonal impact on the exchange rate, there are other factors that cannot be ignored, such as the levels of dollar sales by the Central Bank of Iraq, which directly affect the size of the money supply in the market, as well as political and financial factors such as the timing of the release of general budget funds, in addition to geopolitical situations that may cause sudden disturbances in the demand for foreign currency.”
The analysis concluded that “the seasonal effect remains one of the main elements in determining the exchange rate trends in Iraq, as a recurring pattern appears at the end of the year and the beginning of the fiscal year, in addition to being affected by official holiday periods in countries exporting goods to Iraq. However, other factors, such as monetary policies and political and economic developments, remain a direct influence on the parallel market, which makes it necessary to monitor all these variables to understand exchange rate changes more accurately.”
shafaq.com
