American reading of the “worst-case scenario”… warning against dragging Iraq into the “regional storm”

American reading of the “worst-case scenario”… warning against dragging Iraq into the “regional storm”

2024-11-27 04:12

Shafaq News/ The American “Soufan Institute” said that the United States is trying to avoid what it called the “worst-case scenario” of dragging Iraq into the “eye of the regional storm”, which would put Washington’s “allies”, Iraq and Israel, in direct conflict.

The American report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, explained that “American officials, whether in the outgoing administration of President Joe Biden, or those who will assume senior positions in the second administration of the incoming President Donald Trump, are facing a possible “worst-case scenario,” referring to the increasing tension between two major allies of the United States in the region, namely Israel and Iraq.”

The report considered that “it is likely that Iraq will become involved in the war sweeping the region in light of the Iraqi government’s inability to put the armed groups directly supported by the Iranian “Quds Force” under its control.”

Threat from Iraq

The report noted that “while Israel is fighting a battle with the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas movement, two key members of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” it has become increasingly concerned about the threat posed by Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups. Recent months have seen an escalation in attacks on Israel by these groups operating under the banner of the so-called “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” with their drone attacks increasing from just six in August to 35 in September and up to 47 by mid-October.”

The report pointed to “regional fears of Iraqi armed groups being drawn deeper into the war between Israel and Iran, which have been exacerbated since Israeli intelligence reports in early November indicated that Tehran may be planning to use its Iraqi militia allies to retaliate against Israel. Satellites reportedly detected Iran transferring ballistic missiles to Iraq, to ​​take advantage of the closer geographical range to launch an attack on Israel, while Israel warned the Iraqi government against allowing Iran to use Iraqi territory for offensive operations, which may be a sign that the Israelis are prepared to attack militia sites in Iraq.”

The report mentioned what the advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Larijani, said last Sunday, that Iran is still preparing to “respond” to the Israeli air strikes on October 26, and that Tehran’s response aims to restore “deterrence.”

After the report mentioned that “Israel warned in a letter to the United Nations that the ongoing attacks from Iraq “could lead to further dragging the region into a very dangerous escalation and pose a major threat to international peace and security,” and that Israel has the right to self-defense, the American report said that these threats to strike pro-Iranian groups inside Iraq have raised concerns in Baghdad and Washington.”

According to the report, since October 7, American officials have tried to prevent the “worst-case scenario” of America’s allies in the region coming into conflict with each other, adding that the Americans immediately tried to prevent both Israel and Iraq from taking any military – or diplomatic – action that would, from Washington’s point of view, serve the interests of Tehran and the “axis of resistance.”

Iraqi government position

However, the report noted that the response of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government to the Israeli threats showed Washington that there was a possibility of a rift in the fragile alliance that the United States relies on to try to achieve stability in the region. The report stated that al-Sudani described in his letter, the Israeli letter to the United Nations, as “a pretext and a pretext to attack Iraq… and expand the war in the region.” Baghdad also stressed that it sought to stay out of the regional conflict with Israel and provide relief to the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples.

The report read that Al-Sudani’s position did not only reflect Baghdad’s opposition to the Israeli violation of Iraqi sovereignty, but also reflected Iraq’s alignment with Iran, other Arab countries, and a large part of the international community in accusing Israel of using excessive force in Gaza and southern Lebanon.

The report indicated that Al-Sudani cited the current Strategic Framework Agreement between the United States and Iraq, under which American forces remain in Iraq, to ​​pressure Washington to prevent Israel from attacking targets inside Iraq, noting that Baghdad urged Washington to “take decisive steps under Section III of the Strategic Framework Agreement to help Iraq defend itself and confront threats against Iraq (the Israelis).”

According to the report, some American officials believed that the failure of the United States to prevent Israel from launching attacks inside Iraq would undermine the sensitive negotiations between the United States and Iraq in order to reach a bilateral defense cooperation agreement under which some of the 2,000 American soldiers could remain in Iraq.

However, instead of pressuring Israel, American diplomats focused on trying to achieve the long-term goal of persuading Baghdad to take action against Iranian-backed militias, with American officials telling Iraqi officials that they had exhausted “all means of pressure” on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prevent him from taking military action against Iraqi groups.

Instead, the report added, Washington urged Baghdad to take swift action to prevent further militia attacks on Israel, and that Washington warned Iraqi officials that if militias based in Iraq continued their attacks on Israel, Israel might launch strikes “soon” against Iraqi resistance factions.

The report concluded by warning that, despite this, there are no indications that Baghdad is willing or able to decisively curb the activities of groups allied with Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah and others.

The report explained that Baghdad’s doing so represents a risk of a rift in relations with Iran, and also the possibility of weakening the Iraqi security forces, which consist of a large number of Shiite elements who view Iran as a major ally against the threat posed by ISIS and other extremist jihadist organizations.

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