A victory without a decisive outcome… Sudan between a “second term” and the balances of the Shiite political establishment
A victory without a decisive outcome… Sudan between a “second term” and the balances of the Shiite political establishment
2025-11-13 05:02
Shafaq News – Baghdad
The preliminary results of the sixth parliamentary elections in Iraq showed that the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by Federal Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, came in first, but without achieving a sweeping victory that would guarantee it the formation of the next government on its own. This brought back to the forefront the question of balances within the Shiite bloc, and the intersection of regional and international wills in shaping Baghdad’s political future .
Although the Sudanese (55 years old) was able to consolidate his position as a key player in the Shiite equation, the absence of the Sadr movement, the multiplicity of competing Shiite lists, and the strong return of the Sunni and Kurdish movements, all make the post-election scene more complicated, and put the country at a crossroads between a second term government, or a new balanced alliance imposed by the precise calculations between the traditional forces .
Observers believe that the electoral equation that took place last Tuesday with a participation exceeding 55% did not produce an absolute majority, as announced by the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq yesterday, Wednesday. Rather, it redrawn the political contact lines between the forces of the Coordination Framework (which brings together the ruling Shiite political forces in Iraq), the Sunni Progress Party led by Mohammed al-Halbousi, and the Kurdish Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani .
” Cautious stability ”
Ahmed Al-Yassiri, head of the Arab Australian Center for Strategic Studies, believes that the high voter turnout in the recent elections does not reflect increased political awareness, but rather “a collective desire to avoid chaos and maintain stability.”
Al-Yasiri, speaking to Shafaq News Agency, points out that “voters did not vote for a bloc capable of deciding the competition or forming a comfortable majority, but rather everyone now needs an alliance.” This is because public awareness was not decisive in empowering the new blocs, while party awareness showed a clear division among the traditional forces .
He adds that the tense regional situation, especially with the escalating tension between Iran and Israel, has led Iraqis to choose “stability instead of risking change,” and therefore “the classic blocs will manage the next phase until the features of the regional and international balance become clear.”
Al-Yassiri warns that the losing blocs that have armed wings “may complicate the parliamentary scene, especially if they feel excluded from political gains,” therefore these forces should be contained by “partially involving them in power to ensure that the country does not slide into a confrontation with the United States or become involved in a conflict that serves regional agendas.”
Under these circumstances, he points out that “the ball is now in the court of the political blocs, which must build their alliances cautiously in light of the presence of Washington and Tehran at the gates of Iraqi decision-making.”
Formation challenges
But Dr. Haitham Al-Hiti, a professor of political science at the University of Exeter in Britain, believes that the election results do not give any party an overwhelming mandate, explaining that the “Reconstruction and Development Coalition” led by Al-Sudani “only obtained 45 seats, despite previous expectations that it would win between 70 and 100 seats .”
Al-Hiti adds to Shafaq News Agency that this means “there is no overwhelming victory, but rather a fragmented parliament comprising dozens of small blocs,” which makes “the process of building a coalition to form the next government an extremely difficult task.”
He points out that Sudan, despite leading the results, “needs to form an alliance with a large number of small and disparate blocs with different visions,” considering that “the real challenge today is the ability to bring these parties together in a cohesive coalition capable of passing a strong government.”
” The largest bloc ”
In this regard, Fahd al-Jubouri, a leader in the National Wisdom Movement headed by Ammar al-Hakim, explains that “the coordination framework has not vetoed any figure, and has not yet discussed the issue of the next prime minister,” and there is an expected meeting of the framework within the next two days that “will determine the criteria for selecting the new head of government.”
Al-Jubouri told Shafaq News Agency that “the Coordination Framework as a whole obtained about 126 seats, while the Reconstruction and Development Coalition obtained 45 seats,” making the framework “the largest parliamentary bloc at the level of the Shiite component.”
As a result, according to Al-Jubouri, “the framework is comfortably able to choose the next prime minister, and an agreement may be reached with Al-Sudani to renew his term, but the final decision will be left to the committee that will be formed within the framework to set the criteria for choosing the next prime minister.”
He affirms that “there are differences in viewpoints and observations on the performance of the current government, but these issues have not yet been raised for discussion, and they are expected to be discussed in the coming days within the ongoing political movement.”
” Separation” from the Sudanese
Mukhtar al-Moussawi, a leader in the Badr Organization, which is part of the Coordination Framework, said that “the forces of the Coordination Framework will announce the formation of the largest parliamentary list or bloc after the official election results are certified.”
Al-Moussawi explained in a previous interview with Shafaq News Agency on Thursday that “the lists of the Coordination Framework obtained votes and seats that enable them to proceed with the largest bloc, which is responsible for naming the new Prime Minister, and it is not necessarily with the Reconstruction and Development Coalition,” without going into more details .
In the same context, a political source told Shafaq News Agency that “the political and party leaders within the coordination framework discussed the mechanism for forming the government after the elections concluded and the official ratification of its results .”
The source revealed that “there is an agreement that none of the leaders of the main lists that win the highest number of votes and parliamentary seats have the right to separate from the coordination framework, and the number of seats will not determine the identity of the head of government, but rather what the forces agree upon according to professional standards, regional and international acceptance, and other standards .”
The political source confirmed that “the next prime minister will be nominated from within the coordination framework and not from outside it .”
A source revealed to Shafaq News Agency the details of a meeting held by the Coordination Forces on Wednesday evening following the announcement of the preliminary results of the parliamentary elections. The attendees discussed some topics related to the elections and the distribution of tasks according to electoral and political weight.
The source explained that the framework “set the general and specific guidelines for the political process in the country, without exceeding the constitutional deadlines, and it is keen to complete the government system before the specified dates,” noting that the issue of the premiership will be decided soon, especially since the initial results revealed the political and parliamentary weights of the framework’s forces and the overall state administration coalition .”
The source did not rule out granting Al-Sudani a second term unless one of the influential forces moves against it, in reference to the position of the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri Al-Maliki, adding that “most of the forces of the framework attended the meeting with the exception of the current Iraqi Prime Minister .”
He explained that the identity of the next prime minister will be determined after the legal ratification of the election results .
He concluded by saying that “the meeting also discussed the issue of understanding with those boycotting the elections (the Shiite National Movement led by Muqtada al-Sadr) and their role in the next stage, and knowing their position on the second term.”
The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq announced on Wednesday evening that the “Reconstruction and Development” alliance, led by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, had made significant progress in the preliminary results, achieving 1,317,346 votes in 12 out of 18 governorates. The Progress Party, headed by former Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi, came in second, and the State of Law Coalition, led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, came in third .
Regarding the Shiite Coordination Framework forces, the Reconstruction and Development Alliance of Sudani won 45 parliamentary seats, followed by the State of Law Coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki with 30 seats, and the Sadiqun Bloc led by Qais al-Khazali with 26 seats, while the Badr Bloc led by Hadi al-Amiri won 19 seats, and the State Forces led by Ammar al-Hakim won 18 seats .
shafaq.com
