“A Crossroads”… US Analysis: Iraq’s Elections Could Shake the Influence of Tehran and Its Allies
“A Crossroads”… US Analysis: Iraq’s Elections Could Shake the Influence of Tehran and Its Allies
2025-10-25 05:34
Shafaq News – Translation
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) warned that “Iraq is at a difficult crossroads,” as lawlessness and the enforcement of a gun policy persist. Recent violence, such as the assassination of candidate Safaa al-Mashhadani, comes amid a heated electoral contest, in which Sunni parties may be seeking to expand their influence against pro-Iranian factions.
The American Institute first recalled the assassination of al-Mashhadani on October 15, followed three days later by the shooting attack on the office of candidate Muthanna al-Azzawi, which injured two bodyguards. It stated that such attacks targeting Sunni members of the Baghdad Provincial Council could signal the beginning of a wave of political violence aimed at intimidating Sunni parties in Iraq.
The report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, stated that these acts of violence demonstrate that Iraq remains lawless, where the politics of guns, not ballot boxes, play a major role. It added that with the November 11 elections approaching, the Iraqi government must prevent further such attacks and rein in militias, including those affiliated with Iran.
The report considered the method of assassinating al-Mashhadani, using a magnetic sticky bomb planted under a vehicle, to be a consistent tactic employed by Iraqi militias. It noted that Iran is believed to have supplied its “proxies” with these weapons since at least 2010.
The report noted that the killing occurred amidst a heated electoral contest, in which Sunni parties are seeking to expand their influence against Shiite factions loyal to Tehran.
Although the report noted that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani ordered an investigation into the assassination, and that the arrest of five suspects was announced, the report concluded that previous precedents do not inspire optimism about achieving justice. Baghdad has for years played the role of both good cop and bad cop, which has strengthened the militias’ ability to terrorize Iraq and the region.
In this context, the report recalled an Iraqi court’s 2023 death sentence for the killer of Iraqi researcher Hisham al-Hashimi, but the sentence was later overturned. This crime was widely attributed to Kata’ib Hezbollah, which is also believed to have kidnapped Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, before releasing her under pressure from the Donald Trump administration.
The report noted that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) accused the Iraqi government of ignoring the recent escalation in drone attacks on its energy infrastructure. The KRG claimed that Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) were behind these attacks in northern Iraq.
According to the report, it is difficult for Iraq to rein in Iran-backed militias, particularly because they are part of the state-run Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The report added that Iraq is attempting to further integrate these groups into the Iraqi security forces. It noted that despite US sanctions targeting most of the most prominent militias within the PMF, they maintain their influence, and Baghdad has even condemned these US measures.
The report concluded by stating, “This places Iraq at a difficult crossroads,” adding that “the elections could deal a blow to Iranian-backed sectarian groups, such as the Badr Organization and its various allies within Iraq’s Shiite political parties.” It noted that “if assassinations continue and political violence escalates, it will become clear that the government is not serious about reining in armed militias.”
shafaq.com
