An American expert told Shafaq News: Withdrawal from Iraq is unlikely and disarmament is “impossible” except under certain conditions.
An American expert told Shafaq News: Withdrawal from Iraq is unlikely and disarmament is “impossible” except under certain conditions.
2025-12-28 07:21
Washington – Shafaq News – Mustafa Hashim
A prominent American expert on Middle Eastern affairs ruled out the complete withdrawal of US forces from Iraq by the end of 2026, attributing this to President Donald Trump’s “intense hostility” towards Iran and the control of its allies over the Iraqi political scene, describing the current situation as an “intractable dilemma.”
Professor of Middle East Studies, Paul Davis, told Shafaq News Agency in an exclusive statement that “the complete withdrawal of US forces by the end of 2026 is not likely in my opinion, despite President Trump’s strong desire to finish the Iraqi file, as he harbors a great deal of hostility towards Iran, which now controls – as is well known – the largest bloc of parliamentary seats after the recent elections.”
Davis linked the fate of disarmament to the formation of a new Iraqi government, predicting a lengthy delay in its formation. He said, “The first issue that needs to be resolved is the formation of a new government, and currently, it doesn’t seem that this will happen before mid-2026.”
He added that “the manner and timing of the formation of this government will be a key determinant of the course of disarming or integrating the factions,” while pointing at the same time to another influential factor, which is “Iran’s internal politics, which now appear to be in flux, which may cause Tehran’s interest in internal affairs to overshadow external issues.”
In response to a question about whether any Iraqi government had the “political or military capital” to disarm the factions entrenched in the state, Davis was unequivocal: “The short answer is, of course, no.”
The American expert explained that “the number of militias is estimated to be between 150,000 and 250,000 members. Under a previous agreement, the Popular Mobilization Forces were supposed to be integrated into the regular security forces under the direct control of the Prime Minister instead of the military leadership, but this did not happen, and the militias remained under the control of Iran.”
Davis warned that “unless Iranian control is disrupted, politically and financially, any real progress towards disarmament is unlikely.”
Regarding the timing of the current escalation and the factions’ condition that foreign forces leave before handing over weapons, Davis described the situation using the term “Catch-22” – a vicious cycle from which it is impossible to escape.
He said: “The continued rhetoric from groups like Kataib Hezbollah says they will not disarm until all American and foreign forces leave, while the United States says disarmament is a condition for withdrawal. This puts the situation in a stalemate and takes us back to Iran and its control.”
“Another worrying thing comes from history,” Davis said, recalling the experience of the Awakening Councils, saying: “When the Iraqi government disarmed the Sons of Iraq/Awakening Councils, it opened the door for ISIS to seize large swaths of Sunni Iraqi territory with little resistance.”
He added: “Time will tell what will happen, but I am not optimistic.”
shafaq.com
