“Last-minute pressure”: Washington holds its breath ahead of Iraq elections
“Last-minute pressure”: Washington holds its breath ahead of Iraq elections
2025-11-08 04:04
Shafaq News – Washington/ Mustafa Hashim
As the November 11th election day approaches, which will determine Iraq’s fate in the coming years, Washington’s decision-making circles are looking towards Baghdad with apprehension and concern.
From the American perspective, these elections are not just a routine procedure, but a pivotal moment in a broader “geopolitical vision” that may redraw the map of influence in a region that is being completely reshaped.
Betting on “nationalism” and stability
Frank Mismar, professor of political economy and chairman of the advisory council at the University of Maryland, told Shafaq News that Washington’s main concern is the emergence of a stable, representative, and nationalist Iraqi government that is willing to curb Iranian influence and ensure that all armed groups operate under the authority of the state.
This view aligns with that of political analyst Nabil Mikhail, who confirmed to Shafaq News Agency that “Washington wants the Sudanese government to continue in order to ensure stability, especially given the positive indicators it has observed in the economy and governance during his term.”
Mismar adds that if Sudan is able to continue its reconstruction program and reduce dependence on Iranian gas, “it will be positive for Washington,” with which it has a strong working relationship.
This is what former US Ambassador to Iraq, James Jeffrey, emphasized: that Washington prefers to continue cooperating with Mohammed Shia al-Sudani because of the strong working relationship it has with him, and believes that his victory or the continuation of his current course would be a positive outcome.
He also views Baghdad’s restraint during the recent war between Israel and Iran positively as evidence of Iraq’s independent decision-making, according to his remarks at a lecture organized by the Washington Institute last Wednesday.
Concerns are very much present
Meanwhile, Mismar warns that the Trump administration, within its vision of the “New Middle East,” seeks a stable government in Baghdad to prevent a “security vacuum” that could lead to popular unrest or the re-emergence of groups like ISIS, especially after recent developments in Syria that could exploit this vacuum to return to the Iraqi scene.
Ambassador James Jeffrey says the United States wants the Iraqi elections to produce a stable and representative government that limits Iranian influence and maintains a political balance that prevents a return to tyranny, considering that the Iraqi parliamentary system, despite its flaws, constitutes a guarantee against autocratic rule as in Iran or Syria.
Haifari warns that instability in Iraq could open the door to popular unrest and increased Iranian influence.
A spokesperson for the US State Department told Shafaq News Agency that “the outcome of the elections is up to the Iraqi people,” but stressed at the same time that Washington is urging the Iraqi government to disarm, deprive of influence, and dismantle the militias allied with Iran.
On Friday, Mark Savaya, the US President’s envoy to Iraq, expressed his country’s support for Iraq as it moves towards a future “free from militias,” as he described it, in a post on the “X” website.
“The stick and the carrot”
In the face of Iranian influence, Mismar points to Washington’s “carrot and stick” approach, which combines offers of security and economic partnership with pressure to curb armed groups, noting that future security cooperation may be linked to the issue of integrating the Popular Mobilization Forces into the state forces, and commitments related to accountability for violations.
Robert Golotti, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, told Shafaq News Agency that the most radical possibility is that “the United States may decide not to recognize” the next government if it sees it as being “excessively inclusive” of Iranian-backed groups.
From Jeffrey’s perspective, Iranian influence in Iraq has declined but remains influential, and Tehran will try to capitalize on it after the elections. However, its ability to transform it into an actual regional power is limited, as the Popular Mobilization Forces are not an effective tool against Israel or the United States like Hezbollah or the Houthis. Therefore, Washington sees containing the Popular Mobilization Forces within the state without hostile military activity as an imperfect but acceptable situation.
Mikhail does not rule out that the Trump administration will exert “some last-minute pressure” to try to make the lists supporting al-Sudani successful, as part of a broader strategy aimed at weakening Iran by undermining the influence of its allies through the ballot box.
It is believed that a Sudanese electoral defeat would constitute a “major loss” for the Trump administration, which might prompt it to undertake a “comprehensive reassessment” of its policies in Iraq, the Gulf region, and the Middle East.
But he rules out the option of sanctions to avoid “burning” the Sudanese politically by showing him linked to American interests, despite its fear of the militias returning to play a political role.
On Friday, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein hinted that six Iraqi factions designated as “terrorist” by the United States would not be represented in the next government.
Hussein explained in a television interview that the decision was issued by the American side to classify 6 factions within what he called the “prohibited” list.
He explained that in order to ensure a successful diplomatic relationship for Iraq with the international community, this matter must be taken into consideration, so that dealings with all countries will be easy.
The role of the Kurds
According to Jeffrey, the unity of the Kurdistan Region has been a crucial stabilizing factor in Iraq and the deciding voice in post-election negotiations in the past, but current divisions may prevent the Kurds from playing this role.
However, the United States may exert some pressure on them to guide the course of government formation, as Washington has more influence over the Kurds than Baghdad, but the current state of Kurdish political turmoil may limit the effectiveness of this influence.
Mismar points out that Washington is concerned about the “low voter turnout” in the elections, as it is an indication of the “continued disappointment” among the public with the political system due to corruption and poor services.
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