American experts evaluate the goals of Al-Kazemi’s visit to Washington and the chances of its success
American experts evaluate the goals of Al-Kazemi’s visit to Washington and the chances of its success
08/18/2020 13:59:18
{International: Al Furat News} A busy agenda characterizes the important visit that Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi begins today to the American capital, in which he is expected to meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday evening, in addition to holding a new round of strategic dialogue between Washington and Baghdad that will start tomorrow, Wednesday.
Today, Tuesday, Al-Kazemi left the capital, Baghdad, heading to the United States of America, at the head of a government delegation, in response to an official invitation.
The future of the US military presence in Iraq is the core of the visit files, which were considered by American experts to go beyond the two-state relations, to include important regional files, especially those related to the US-Iranian confrontation in Iraq and the Gulf region.
Al-Kazemi’s visit to Washington comes weeks after an important visit to Tehran, during which he met with the Leader of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which garnered great attention in the American capital.
It is expected that the file of completing the withdrawal of the American forces – the number of 5,200 soldiers – from Iraq will top the agenda of the visit of Al-Kazemi and his accompanying delegation.
Commenting on this, Kenneth Katzman, an expert on Iraq and Iran affairs at the Congressional Research Service Center, suggested, in a press statement, that “the two parties agree to reduce Washington’s forces in Iraq without announcing a complete US withdrawal.”
For his part, Michael Rubin, an expert on Iraqi affairs at the American Enterprise Center, and a former official in the US Department of Defense (Pentagon), considered that “a complete withdrawal from Iraq is not the goal of the two countries in the current period.”
Rubin added that the most important question is: How can the two countries continue the partnership at a time when the challenges that Iraq faces today differ from those it faced before, when comprehensive negotiations and discussions were held between the two parties at this level on the future of their relations more than a decade ago.
Michael Brigent, a researcher at the American Hudson Institute, took a more rigid stance towards the idea of a complete withdrawal of his country’s forces from Iraq, and told Al-Jazeera Net that “if the Americans are asked to leave and leave Iraq, the United States will leave Iraq on the brink of economic collapse.”
For his part, the military expert at the Center for the Near East and South Asia of the American National Defense University, David de Roch, ruled out that the meeting between Trump and Al-Kazemi would come out with an agreement on a complete withdrawal.
De Roch said, “There will be a statement of the conditions that must be met if there is a withdrawal, and it is possible that the United States will not be able to withdraw.”
De Roche said it is likely that the meeting will strengthen Al-Kazemi’s call for early elections, but he also expected that there will be strong American condemnation of “corruption, election fraud and external disturbances.”
Most American experts questioned Al-Kazemi’s electoral fortunes, as Katzman believes that “the prime minister does not have a strong sectarian, tribal or partisan constituency in Iraq. I do not think that strategic dialogue with the United States will increase his chances of winning the next elections.”
But Katzman believes that “if the powerful Shiite factions cannot agree on the person of a new consensual prime minister after these elections, they may agree to Al-Kazemi and allow him to remain prime minister, but it will not be his decision, but rather the decision of the powerful factions.”
Robin agrees with the previous proposal, asserting that “Al-Kazemi’s visit to Washington and his meeting with President Trump has nothing to do with his electoral fortunes. Simply, after there is an election date, Al-Kazemi must begin to achieve tangible results and achievements on the ground, because he has very little tangible success until Now, since his accession to the post of prime minister. ”
“Al-Kazemi calls for early elections, which are dominated by the coalition of some parties, and he would not have allowed them to take place unless it was in their interest,” says Brigent.
He added that “the United States and the international community should press for the adoption of a new election law.”
Multiple reports indicated that Iraq and Al-Kazemi enjoyed everything that is required to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran, as the prime minister has lines of communication with the various conflicting capitals in the region, which is what Washington can benefit from during the visit.
Michael Rubin believes, “Most Iraqi leaders focus on their own interests instead of focusing on playing a mediating role,” noting that “Oman and Switzerland have always bridged this gap well, and therefore there is no need or desire for Iraq to play this role.”
De Roche asserts that “the Trump administration wants to remove all US forces from Iraq, but that will not happen if it means that we will have to return if ISIS’s influence increases again.”
During a meeting with the US Institute of Peace a few days before Al-Kazemi’s visit, the Commander of the US Army’s Central Command, Kenneth McKenzie, affirmed that his country’s military presence in Iraq “will change in coordination with the Iraqi government,” adding that Al-Kazemi is likely to move in the right direction and the United States should support it.
alforatnews.com
