You can have the victory in Mosul, “October surprise” of Obama?
You can have the victory in Mosul, “October surprise” of Obama?
September 2, 2016
Recent progress of the forces Peshmerga Kurdish east of Mosul, as well as pledged Reese Minister Iraqi Haider Abadi to “raise the Iraqi flag” over Mosul, increased speculation about an imminent battle to regain the city.
Washington – With keep less than 150 days to hand him over “Oval Office” to his successor, President became US Barack Obama puts the fight against the “Daesh” in his administration ‘s strategy center in Iraq and Syria.
speaks experts , research centers, and retired generals and administration officials about the battle looming for the Liberation of Mosul; the second largest city in Iraq, before the end of this year. And it can serve the restoration of Mosul “Daesh” to improve Obama ‘s legacy, and perhaps serve as an “October surprise” to help the Democrats in the US presidential elections in November (November). However, experts warn that a good preparation for the battle of Mosul remains more important than the exact timing.
Began to fuss about editing Mosul in April when Obama told the television station (CB.. S): “My expectations are that we will have created, by the end of the year, the necessary conditions to enable the fall of Mosul in the end. ”
recent progress made by the peshmerga forces in the east of Mosul, as well as Iraq ‘s prime minister vowed, Haider al – Abadi, to” raise the Iraqi flag “on the connector, increased speculation about an imminent battle to regain the city of Mosul . The United States also increased the number of advisers and trainers Americans who are working with the Iraqi army; and in July, it was announced the US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, the 560 additional soldiers will be sent to Iraq to help prepare for the restoration of Mosul , an Iraqi – led.
Says Vladimir van Vilgnburg , an analyst at the Jamestown EST in Washington, which runs from northern Syria, said Mosul , “must surround first before you can launch a real process.” “The supply lines ‘Daesh’ between Iraq and Syria must be cut … there is a need for a large force.”
It is expected that these forces consist of a “Kurdish forces, and fighters from the Sunni tribes, and the Iraqi army and Shiite groups backed paramilitaries from Iran , ” he says Vilgnburg, though the differences and disagreements between these groups may hinder such a process.
logistically, will launch a Kurdish forces’ operation in southern Chengal, while hurtling Iraqi security units to western Anbar to control the Syrian border gate in Qaim, and then moves in the direction of Baaj , “according to Van Vilgnburg, who warned that they” can not afford to launch a process to be completed siege of Mosul. ”
political talks on the restoration of Mosul , began to try to coordinate the affairs of government and regional authorities in the city. The lack of good governance and a lack of confidence in the security agencies are among the factors that helped “Daesh” to seize Mosul very quickly in June 2014.
In the last period, hosted the president of Iraq ‘s Kurdistan Regional Government, Massoud Barzani, talks between the United States and officials Iraqis and representatives of Sunni tribes and Kurdish forces in Erbil, to discuss the post – military operations in Mosul. In a statement after the talks, Barzani said that “following the liberation of Mosul will not accept the old order , ” and that “drastic changes must be conducted for the benefit of the people of Mosul.” Among the possible changes, re – administrative division of the province of Nineveh , and create the structure of a more inclusive political power in Mosul. The
term “October surprise” refers to a political incident have a last – minute impact on the November elections (in November), which is something that some call “Mosul process.” He requested anonymity , a US official said Obama himself looked to eliminate a foothold “Daesh” in Mosul as ” a crucial part of his legacy , ” but he denied any connection to that date of US elections.
However, “Politico” magazine reported in an article entitled ” be prepared to’mphajoh October ‘Obama” in Iraq, the Mosul attack , “now tentatively to begin sometime in early October (October) at the time, with the fight a final battle at the end of that month.” Said retired Major General of the Army, Michael Barbero, told the “Washington Times” that “some US officials in Baghdad believe that the Obama administration is speeding up plans to attack Mosul until it is implemented before the presidential election in November (November).”
Will be a step of this such a total surprise, is also believed to Larry Sabato, director of the policy Center at the University of Virginia. He pointed out previous efforts by former presidents while they are in position to inject the issue of national security in the presidential race, as happened in 2004, when George W. raise. Bush ‘s state of alert just days before the vote to secure a second term .
Now, all the polls almost give presidential candidate Hillary Clinton ‘s progress over Republican rival Donald Trump, and will enhance the liberation of Mosul Democrats ‘ chances of retaining the White House.
But the Vigheinburg warns of rushing in a military operation in Mosul, and it emphasizes the importance of readiness and preparedness and encircle the city first. While the swift victory in Mosul can have a positive steel For Democrats, the short effort considering can bring catastrophic repercussions on each of the legacy of Obama and the Democratic ticket in the elections alike.
Joyce Karam
Al-Ghad
rawabetcenter.com
