US intelligence shade: the forthcoming reshuffle could destabilize the balance of the blocks

US intelligence shade: the forthcoming reshuffle could destabilize the balance of the blocks and components and exacerbate protests

3.24.2016 20:02

Iraqi GovernmentLong-Presse / Baghdad
Suggested American institution concerned with strategic analysis, on Thursday, “the inability of the” Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, to satisfy all political parties ministerial change expected, who plans to do, and while I came back that it may “prejudice,” “minute” formula which was formed on the basis of the current government, and “angry” many of the blocks and components, predicted continued protests by followers of the Sadrist movement and expansion.
It Stratfor STRATFOR Foundation, the analytical study today, followed up (range Press), “The upcoming government of technocrats, which intends to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, its formation would satisfy all the political parties, and would lead to instability in Baghdad,” likely “continuation protests in Iraq even after the formation of that government. ”
The organization, known as the “Central Intelligence Agency CIA in the shade”, that “Abadi plans to conduct a reshuffle in his government,” noting that it could “cause a disturbance in the balance of the current government, which form carefully.”
She Stratfor, that “the government of al-Abadi, has faced mounting pressure from protesters citizens, since announcing the beginning of February 2016, its intention to replace the nine ministers of his government with others from professionals (technocrats) and academics,” indicating that “the demand for reform and protests against corruption has increased, despite efforts Abadi effort to consult parliamentarians and leaders of the political blocs on the reshuffle, which requires him to act with caution to avoid any other possible disturbances. ”
The Foundation explained, “The MP Mehdi al-Hafez, announced (23 March the current 2016), providing for the election committee parliamentary government of technocrats, a list of candidates for the Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, to express an opinion about them,” pointing out that “Abadi will provide the elected candidates of before him in (the 27 of March current), which may lead to change the representation of political parties in the country, of ethnic and racial groups, especially if the situation in priorities to provide along with academic expertise on political affiliation, what could have faced angry reactions from all sides. ”
Considered Stratfor, it is “theoretically possible to minimize the seriousness of the consequences of changing the political representation using a technique that is used by the parliament in the selection of candidates,” afterthought that “Abadi had previously asked all constitutional bloc in the country to submit their nominations of technocrats and political and religious point of reference itself.”
We institution, however, the “Abadi no pledges support for political quota currently on the scene,” usually that “silence Abadi about the problem raises the nerves of a lot of Iraqi politicians.”
She stressed the institution, on the need to “follow up and monitor the reactions of several characters and groups within the Iraqi political department, to see the extent of the impact that will be generated reshuffle the stability of Iraq,” unexpected “lack of conviction of the Sadrist movement, the Ministerial amendment, especially its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, called for a thorough change , not nine ministers only. ”
Fears of escalating protests and tension as a result of breach of the representation of the blocks and components
Stratfor, and suggested that “continues to supporters of the Sadrist movement, their demands for a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle”, and that “the Sadrists protests evolve and expand if the current positions were part of the cabinet reshuffle.”
He went America Foundation, in its analysis, saying, “The Kurds are worried about their part of the reshuffle, which has negatively affected the farmers some ministries they occupy now, he rejected the Minister of Culture and Tourism and Antiquities, Faryad Roandozi, leave the office, and the possibility of giving ministerial seats occupied by the Kurds, who is also Finance include and Displacement and migration, a non-Kurdish figures, it may damage the relationship with Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government. ”
According to Stratfor, “The same thing applies to the share of the Sunni community in the country, to the possibility that the reshuffle leads to reduce their representation in the government, which could aggravate their opposition to the Abadi management, and feeds the broader Sunni tension in the country.”
Abadi will not be able to satisfy all the parties achieve or perceptions concerning the technocrat government
Enterprise also said, “The Abadi if managed inauguration candidates technocrats nearly successful, the new government may be in a better position to manage the economic challenges in the country’s future,” afterthought “But despite the fact that any personal has chosen Abadi to be in the next government , it would be impossible for him to satisfy all the political blocs in Iraq, and ultimately, any change will certainly may not be as Abadi wanted him in the first instance, or efficient envisaged by observers who are interested. ”
Stratfor concluded, that “Abadi efforts will not provide anything to dissuade protesters from the Sadrist movement, which protests are expected to continue over the coming weeks.”
The followers of the Sadrist movement are continuing their sit-in in front of the Green Zone gates, since last Friday, (the 18th of March current 2016), calling for reform and the fight against corruption and a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle or “Hla gouge” He also called for that the current leader, Muqtada al-Sadr.