Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 12-10-15
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 12-10-15
12-10-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste Article quote: “but who got to the monetary authority continued to approach raising the value of the dinar against the dollar (ie reduce the value of the dollar denominated in dinars) after the decline in the rate of inflation and to control it and install the official exchange rate at a level may not necessarily reflect the level of equilibrium in the market.” The author appears to be asking the rhetorical question: Who decided to place the rate artificially low at 1166 to 1? His unstated answer is clearly that the CBI itself has done this. His opinion is that the time has come to let market forces begin to work through the Iraqi economy so that the value will rise, which he clearly expects will happen. It is my opinion that this is, therefore, a “setup” argument for what the IMF/CBI plans to do shortly after the beginning of the new year: float the currency officially.
12-10-2015 Newshound Guru Enorrste …some laws still need to be in place and…investment won’t come in prior to changing the exchange rate regime. It’s like the chicken and the egg story: which do you do first? It seems to me that without a floating and internationally recognized currency the investment won’t come to Iraq in any significant way. At the same time, it is the foreign investment that will be the driving force to raise the value of the dinar. Thus I conclude that the IMF/CBI has concluded that they will have to have a “dirty exit” in order to get the investment started. Let’s just hope I’m right…
12-10-2015 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG [IYO, what does the window look like to you?] CBI market/sell rate is in compliance with IMF guidelines – miraculously… AND there has been an obscure caviat to the IMF 3 month “waiting period” under such compliance before moving to next step…which I said would happen. PLAINLY…when it’s time – they will have everything in place to go. I will just leave this here…
12-10-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 “Iraqi Official Gazette published the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism law” …we have an official posting in the Gazette of the AML [Anti Money Laundering]. The debate of it had been published and is law is over. It has now been published..
12-10-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 I TALKED WITH A BAGDAD FRIEND…AND HE IS STILL SAYING THAT A NEWS PAPER ARTICLE THERE STATED LOWER DENOMS…ARE BEING DISTRIBUTED TO ALL BANKS LAST WEEK BUT NO DATE ON WHEN THEY ARE TO BE INTRODUCED TO THE PUBLIC. GOOD THINGS ARE ABOUT TO HAPPEN.
12-10-2015 Newshound Guru OOTW “Our Certification Mark Once certified, clients can display our Certification Mark to promote and demonstrate compliance with international standards” THIS IS FURTHER EVIDENCE (VIA THE MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT) THAT IRAQ IS WORKING TOWARDS PRODUCING AND SHIPPING GOODS TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS. MAY NOT SEEM LIKE MUCH, BUT THESE TYPES OF STEPS ARE EXACTLY WHAT WE NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE CURRENT LEGISLATION OF THE 2016 BUDGET STATES THAT THE GOI PLANS ON IMPLEMENTING THE TARIFF’S IN 2016.
12-9-2015 Newshound Guru wmawhite [so why do they join the WTO…IMF is going to force IRAQ to join?] The IMF does not force any country to do anything…however, if a country wants the IMF’s “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”…then a country must follow the requirements (articles) of the IMF.
12-9-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 LIKE I SAID I BELIEVE RATE TO BE VISIBLE AND USABLE BY OR BEFORE JAN 1.
12-9-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 What we do know is that they have made it very clear that they intend/need…the budget…passed before the first of the year. What we do know is Shabibi had said the time to lift the 3 zeros is at the start of the fiscal year. What we do know is the IMF, World Bank, and Japan are all loaning several billions of dollars…but to come after the first of the year. And we know that this past March the CBI gave the green light to start the process to lift the 3 zeros…AND Shabibi said in his day that the plan was in 3 phases…each phase taking approx 6 months…IMO…the new year starts phase 3.
12-9-2015 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [Could you please give us your thoughts on all of the turmoil going on in the mid east. What I am really interested in is if the fighting over there is a problem for the RV?] My opinion on the turmoil stays pretty consistent – they will never stop fighting, regardless of the value of their money. They don’t fight for money, so it’s kind of irrelevant. Of course it makes a difference, but now that the GOI is reasonably stable, the CBI has a strong hold on the rate, Iraq is getting along much nicer with themselves… things are going well.
12-9-2015 RUMOR Guru Mnt Goat Many events seem to converge on the month of December, and in particular mid December, so let’s pay close attention to what is happening this month. I believe in retrospect we will say this was a very significant month. I want to keep all of us focused on currency reform. Right now this is exactly what we should be watching in expectation of the launching of the lower denominations. Many sources have told me the plan of the CBI is to launch the lower denominations sometime before or by the end of the year. Will it occur? We can only wait and watch. Our focus must be on the actions of these two agencies – the CBI and the Finance Ministry.
12-9-2015 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article quote: “In response to a question from the hanger on the identification of a specific timeframe to close the currency sale of dollars in the central bank window replied, “that he once available other outlets to provide the dollar in the domestic market such as remittances from the outside to the inside or the export of goods or attract investment that will cover the market need of hard currency sales window will close.” This is a very key statement… In other words, until the laws are in place and the market economy begins to take off (creating an influx of foreign capital into Iraq), he will not float the dinar and end the currency auctions. Unfortunately, it is painful to watch as we all know what they need to do to raise the value and all we can do is sit and watch.