Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 11-18-15
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 11-18-15
11-18-2015 Newshound Guru Millionday Article quote: “Denied the parliamentary Finance Committee, on Tuesday, re-draft federal budget law for 2016 to the Cabinet for discussion.” THE REPORTS OUT THAT THE 2016 BUDGET HAS BEEN SENT BACK HAS BEEN DENIED — THE SECOND READING HAS BEEN DONE AND THEY EXPECT VOTE THURSDAY. REMEMBER THAT THE RADICAL REFORMS THAT THE WORLD BANK IS CALLING FOR IS ALSO TO REDUCE THE 2016 BUDGET DEFICIT AND FIGURES ETC — SO FOR THIS TO BE READY FOR VOTE — IT SHOWS HUGE PROGRESS AND PREPARATION FOR THE ECONOMIC REFORMS IMO.
11-18-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 …THE WORLD BANK AND IMF HAVE STATED THEY (IRAQ ) MUST INCREASE GDP AND GROW ECONOMY TO SHORE UP THEIR FINANCIAL STABILITY. TO ME THAT SAYS THEIR CURRENCY MUST INCREASE IN VALUE TO GAIN THAT STABILITY TO SUPPORT THE LOANS THEY HAVE ALREADY BEEN APPROVED ON. RV PEOPLE NOW THATS A WHOOPOW.
11-18-2015 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Finance Committee: the central bank to issue any financial category offset by the withdrawal of classes 10 and 25 000 dinars” This is very important IMO that we have a directive from the IMF (remove restrictions) so the CBI can get into Article VIII…and the subsequent days after the signing of the MoU we have the CBI issue the 50k note in efforts to strengthen the banking system and create demand (by reducing the physical dinar (10k, 25k) which will reduce the spread. All of which is hoped to be accomplished before mid 2016. Very good news for sure.
11-18-2015 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG [doesnt a currency need to be “tradable ” to float?] …one would assume that is accurate… without a “tradable” value to others it would be a very weak “float value” indeed.
1-18-2015 Newshound Guru Adam Montana Aside from what I discussed the last two weeks, the only thing worth spending time on is the 50k notes. I have a theory: When the RV is announced, the CBI will want to reduce the supply of larger notes (currently 25k and 10k) as quickly and efficiently as possible. One very easy way to do that is to release one larger denomination, the 50,000, and introduce that either immediately before, during, or after the rate change. By “immediately”, I mean hours, not to exceed 24 hours. The new 50k notes should be just as technologically advanced as the current 25/10k notes, if not more. This will help avoid a lot of problems with counterfeiting while at the same time controlling the paper money supply.
11-18-2015 Newshound Guru Adam Montana I would expect that transition to happen over the course of maybe 30 days, at which time there will probably be a demand that all 50k notes are turned in for smaller denominations, or even more likely, deposited into digital accounts. This allows the CBI to continue to control the paper money supply and also the rate… really, it’s just how a central bank works. It’s actually quite a simple concept if you’re familiar with how fiat currencies work. The bottom line is simple – in my opinion, the 50,000 dinar notes could be a very powerful tool to help the CBI control the RV process, and the timing couldn’t be better.
11-18-2015 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article quote: “the Fund shall provide technical assistance to the Iraqi authorities for the implementation of policies related to foreign currency and the removal of restrictions on him.” The IMF is clearly stating they signed the MoU to help remove the remaining restriction on Iraq from moving to Article VIII…only one restriction remains, and that is the auctions and 2% spread. …the IMF spread or 2% in this case is the difference between the official rate at the CBI and the market rate (street rate) in Iraq…in order for the CBI to be in compliance with the IMF, they must keep that rate within 2%…and the IMF is going to Iraq to help them overcome that issue.
11-18-2015 Newshound Guru Kaperoni And we know from another IMF article they expect Iraq to enter the market by mid 2016…very very good news…there is clear proof that the IMF will help them get in compliance and move to Article VIII within the next 6 months…the auctions will end…the auctions can only stop when their is an alternative…and the float will also start…as already stated by the US Treasury and the IMF and several Iraqi economists and members of the Finance Committee. …once they move to Article VIII, what happens to the dinar is yet to be determined.
11-17-2015 Intel Guru Delta …a while back we said there would be no 50k note…we were wrong…the 50 dinar note will be coming in the future…so it looks like their plans have changed…the IMF is also trying to help them at this time…the plan before they wanted to do the LD’s and come out the door at 85 cents or 1 to 1 but they have changed things…with the help of the IMF…they are now looking at a free float as their best route at this time. …if you remember when Dr. Shabibi said we are wanting to get the IQD to where it was in the ‘70’s and ‘80’s…it was around that $2.60 to $2.80…remember when Saddam was in power the IQD rate at his time was around $3.20 and it was believed to be inflated as a rate so the $2.60 – 2.80 is plausible. …exciting times ahead…Iraq is blessed to have the help and support from IMF others in this process.
11-17-2015 Intel Guru Frank26 …within the 2 weeks of December we believe the economic reforms in Iraq will be in full speed in progress…we believe the movement from the RI to the RV will start sometime during that time frame…we believe there is a time frame when they jump from the RI to the RV. IMO…we think they may start at something like 40 cents…at the meeting on the 10th…they suggested 10 cents, 20 cents…but were told no…maybe they start at 40 cents…that period from the RI to RV we believe will take maybe 7 to 10 days and you may not even see this suggestion of 40 cents…because it is electronic and you won’t see it. In that time is when we believe the IQD will be moved into its natural rate position and then it will be free floated at a 2% monthly margin to increase it…that is up to you which to see how fast you can jack it up to its natural rate position…is that $3.22…
11-17-2015 Intel Guru Frank26 the Minister of Planning and Minister of Finance suggested $1.13 to $1.17 with a gradual increase to a 3+ range. …you may be surprised that the natural rate will come out later for the IQD. I like this 40 cent rate…that would make every 1 million IQD would be equal to $400,000. If they do this, we believe we will not see this…it will be in this 7-10 day time frame…they will introduce the LD’s and coins but after they finish the float that you will not be able to see until the currency is in its NATURAL RATE POSITION…then they will cap it…my teams are saying, in their opinion…the capped rate will be higher than Kuwait.
11-17-2015 Newshound Guru wmawhite […has the IMF demanded that they RV the currency by such and such a date?] the IMF has already told you when they expect this to happen. the IMF made a statement that it is expected that Iraq will re-enter the economy market/global market prior to the first half of 2016. IMO…this is as much a date as any of us will ever hear.
11-17-2015 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Parliamentary Integrity: the central bank has taken no action against “corruption” in the process of selling currency” Since the CBI cannot even put a dent in stopping this, they need to work towards ending the auctions and floating the dinar…the sooner the better. Those articles last week and the week before calling for the float are the correct solution.
11-17-2015 Intel Guru Frank26 IOO (in our opinion)…the LD’s that were moved from the US to Baghdad…IOO…were distributed to all the banks on Friday that Dr. Shabibi wanted them delivered to. It is said today that Maliki will be tried in the International Criminal Court. This is yet another step that was awaited…their laws are taking them in that direction of international flavor… what they want, international recognition…Justice is good and necessary.
11-17-2015 Intel Guru Frank26 We…did not forget about this meeting on the 10th with PM Abadi, Dr. Shabibi, the IMF, the World Bank, and others from Iraq. …the meeting itself established the 2015 reform steps and going into 2016…that is why I told you they are so poised for 2016, but my God are they ready in 2015. In that meeting they talked about a free float….they talked about maybe in the month of December they can walk out of the RI into the RV…let us free float our currency.
11-17-2015 Intel Guru Frank26 …they issued the 50k last week…you know what the 50k mission is…this 50k is on a suicide mission to collect all the 000’s and it is very obvious it has done its job. This is the beginning of the lifting of the 000’s… the US…told the Iraqis they would help them with their MR process….for one year. It looks like they have decided to go with a float. There is a change coming to the currency rate from the RI to the RV…this change will be a free float…they told you this…we don’t believe it will be 85 cents, we don’t believe it will be 1 to 1…WE SURELY DON’T BELIEVE IT WILL BE A LOP…it is going to be an increase…understand that.
11-17-2015 RUMOR Guru Mnt Goat There is a mandate from the CBI to banks that they will use these new 50k and 100k notes for very large inter-banking and commercial transactions since once they collect all the large old 3 zero notes they will no longer have the very large 3 zero notes for this purpose( 5k, 10k 25k). The 50k notes will coincide indefinitely with the new lower denominations ($5, $10, $20, $200, etc) in circulation as the new Iraq currency going forward.
11-17-2015 Intel Guru MarkZ Liquidity is gone, the can, can not be kicked down the road any further.
11-17-2015 Newshound Guru wmawhite Article quote: “Warns a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, of the consequences of “the continuation of the central bank dollar auction to sell the currency,” it is that it “threatens to fall in foreign exchange, which sees the International Monetary Fund’s reserves to be dangerous.” the message continues…”it is time to stop the auctions”…IMO. If the auctions stop the amount of USD on the streets dry up and they are left with primarily IQD…”single payor window”.
11-17-2015 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 Article quote: “because all the accounts of the budget will be recorded in accordance with the new currency. ” IN WHICH CASE IS A STRONG POINT AND VERIFICATION OF WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SAYING…THE APPROPRIATE TIME TO LIFT THE ZEROS IS AT THE START OF THE YEAR…NOT THE MIDDLE OF A QUARTER OR MIDDLE OF THE YEAR…THOSE WERE SHABIBI’S WORDS…EXACTLY!
11-17-2015 Newshound Guru Millionday THIS IS WHAT CBI SAYS ABOUT THE 50,000 DINAR: Quote: “The Central Bank of Iraq, Sunday, that the issuance of 50 thousand dinars category paves the way for the deletion of zeros from the currency, and among it will reduce the demand for the dollar, he pointed out that there is no link to the financial crisis with the new version.” IT IS PAVING THE WAY TO PULL THE THREE ZERO CURRENCY AND IS PART OF THE NEW VERSION. THIS WAS PART OF THE PLAN FOR YEARS. THE NEW DINAR SERIES WILL REDUCE THE DEMAND FOR THE US DOLLAR. IT COULD TAKE A YEAR FOR IRAQ TO HAVE ALL THE THREE ZERO CURRENCY RETURNED TO THEM. THIS IS PART OF THE MONETARY STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENT. THEY ARE INCLUSIVE OF THE SMALL DENOMS AND COINS ACCORDING TO WHAT I HAVE READ…
11-17-2015 Newshound Guru Millionday THE PRICES OF PRODUCTS IS WHAT RAISES THE DEMAND FOR WHAT DENOM — IT IS NOT A PROBLEM THAT THEY ARE RELEASING THE 50,000 — IT IS PART OF THE ENTIRE PLAN — MEANING THIS IS GOOD NEWS. THE BUYING POWER AND HEIGHTENED VALUE OF THE DINAR WILL BE A RESULT OF TRADE ETC BUT ALSO FROM THE GLOBAL PRICING INDEX BEING CALCULATED — THE DEMAND FOR THE DENOMINATION COMES FROM THE PRICES AND A MARKET ECONOMY — GLOBALLY — REQUIRES FAIR TRADE ACCORDING TO THE INTERNATIONAL EQUATION THAT DETERMINES THE FLUXUATION ON THE FOREX MARKET FOR ALL CURRENCIES. THE DINAR WOULD NEED TO BE CALCULATED TO ITS TRUE VALUE FOR THEM TO GO TO A MARKET ECONOMY. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE PLANNED RATE IS OF CBI.