The Curse of the Obama doctrine
The Curse of the Obama doctrine
David Rothkopf BAGHDAD translation Anis al-Saffar
the Middle East is a place where we have created the concepts of «known unknown» and »the unknown known.» But even in this region, which today ripple more than ever in mystery and doubt and uncertainty, remain there «About information» have special because it draws upon retrospect image tomorrow serious cause for concern to the max. Importance of
this «more information» also reminds us that the President American (Barack Obama), even at this stage that call for celebration thanks to the deal with Iran, may leave behind a map of the Middle East where this victory seems to have surrounded him on every side defeats and setbacks will increase the negative effect involves worse whenever over time.
What are these «information information »? First, we know that Iran is moving towards a deal success. Some sounds will undoubtedly rise and emerge victorious, but the president of Congress and then take the deal. Second, when we look at the Middle East, which we know we will see that the region is living the worst mess ever known over its recent history. Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya are all in the grip of conflicts may lead to a redefinition of textural features, and extensions of these conflicts should be her burdens and threats to neighboring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the other is going through an impasse, as seems certain that Egypt will witness more trouble and hard times. And the Gulf States also continues to be drawn into a spiral of conflicts in the region, approaching more and more the focus of risk. Even Afghanistan, which are not considered part of the Middle East, according to the technical description but adjacent to Iran, appeared to be heading towards more crises.
I only ask for discussion «Last information known», which is that this situation seriously dangerous will not improve any time soon. Try and you’ll see the truth of what I say, try to imagine the scene after five years from now, then ask yourself: Do you think there is likely to settle Syria? Is there a possibility that Iraq stabilizes during this period? Or Yemen? Or Libya?
For weeks I go I put these questions to a number of experts in the US military and the diplomatic corps, and other countries in the same region, were their responses in all the cases mentioned that «the possibility likely is that the unrest and chaos will continue .. and perhaps for more than five years».
These experts may be wrong in one or two cases, but it seems unlikely to be wrong along the line. So you this «the unknown known» which can be taken socket certainty: that the Middle East is going through a period of crisis and confusion, which will accommodate the lengthened term. As proves to us with each passing day, the damage that branch of it and the effects reflected it will continue to worsen.
Witnessing Syria since now the worst humanitarian crisis in the world after four years of war amounted to price hundreds of thousands of deaths and more than seven million internally displaced. Of course it is clear that all of this will get worse whenever the duration of the war spilled over other months and years. In Yemen exposed nearly 6 million man to famine, and the Libyans crowding in rubber rafts or squashed like sardines crammed in boats hold out hope often frail is to reach Europe. And refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon will become an unbearable burden, and chaos will not only give birth to more chaos. A US military commanders have told me that the organization «Daash» terrorist taking softens his efforts to recruit more fighters because it no longer needs them as long as there are volunteers carrying the seed of extremism. • magazine «Forn-Pulse»