IMF: the growth rate of the Iraqi economy outlook remains positive despite the current crisis
IMF: the growth rate of the Iraqi economy outlook remains positive despite the current crisis
2015/08/19 17:47
Long-Presse / Baghdad
International Monetary Fund forecast on Wednesday to witness the Iraqi economy “improved modestly” during the current 2015 by 0.5 percent due to the increase of oil production, with incidence more contraction in activity the non-oil sector, and with the exception of the rate of growth expectations in the medium term, is still positive, although it is less than the required rates before the crisis, he stressed that the growth will be determined by the desired increase oil production and recovery rates of growth in other sectors as well as the expected improvements to the security situation and the implementation of structural reforms.
This came in a report by the International Monetary Fund IMF, today, on economic growth indicators in Iraq, and the obstacles they face as a result of lower oil prices and the war against al (Daash), and its forecast for growth for future economic, in the wake of the end of Article IV of the current 2015 consultations , conducted by the executive body of the Fund with Iraq, according to published Fund and I followed (range Press).
The IMF said in his report, he said that “Iraq faces a double acute crisis arising from the organization Daash and falling world oil prices threats”, adding that “the GDP growth rate of GDP in the past in 2014, shrank by 2.1 percent due to the impact of the ongoing conflict in the country, despite the increase few in oil production and exports in 2013 compared to last. ”
Fund predicted that “undergone a modest improvement on the overall Iraqi economic activity for the current year 2015 by 0.5 percent as a result of the expansion in the oil sector,” but he predicted the other hand, “a contraction in activity over the non-oil sector.”
Fund saw, that “the fall in oil prices ed to the decline in Iraq’s reserves of hard currency, including the Iraqi Development Fund allocations, from $ 84 billion at year-end 2013, to $ 67 billion at the end of 2014,” noting that “financial pressures continuing escalate expected expansion in the government budget deficit from 5.3 percent the past year with the record, to 18.4 percent during the current year, to the continued decline in oil prices, and rising spending to cover the humanitarian and security needs. ”
He said the International Monetary Fund, that “the rate of growth expectations in the medium term, is still positive, although it is less than the required rates before the crisis,” noting that “growth will be determined by the desired rise in oil production and recovery rates of growth in the non-oil sector, which will be supported by the expected improvement in the situation security and implementation of structural reforms. ”
Fund promised, that “the risk is still very high,” attributing it to “the escalation of fighting and political tensions and the weakness of the executive policy.”
He concluded advisers executives in the fund, that “the steps taken by the government authorities in Iraq are going in the right direction”, but they “asked for more tireless efforts to address the significant financial gap and maintain the sustainability of the momentum of reforms efforts.”
Fund recommended, the need to “make a rationalization in spending while maintaining a secure level on the priorities for the social aspect and the important things basis, and to achieve an adequate level of social security.”
Within the economic growth indicators in Iraq, predicted the International Monetary Fund, that “GDP growth rate up to 7.6 percent during the next year in 2016, and rise to 8.1 percent during the year 2017 the next,” while predicted that “rising oil production rates from 3.4 million barrels per day during the current year 2015, to 3.8 million b / d by 2016, and that up to 4.3 million b / d by 2017 “.
The Fund also predicted that “the Iraqi source oil prices rise from $ 54.7 per barrel during the current 2015 to $ 62.0 during the year 2016 to $ 67.1 during the year 2017″, and that “continues to climb to $ 69.9 a barrel in 2018 year.”
The oil prices more than 60 percent down compared to the summer of 2014 the past, having reached nearly US $ 120 a barrel, fell to the range of $ fifty now, in conjunction with the takeover (Daash) on more than one third of the country after (the tenth of June 2014) .
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