Iraqi Dinar guru opinions 12-28-14
Iraqi Dinar guru opinions 12-28-14
12-28-2014 Newshound Guru Enorrste I do not believe that the CBI has to get into Article VIII PRIOR to floating its currency. On the contrary, by floating its currency PRIOR to entry into Article VIII, it will ENSURE that the street rate and the official rate (now floating, in this scenario) are identical (i.e., less than 2% apart). This makes entry into Article VIII a slam dunk. If, on the other hand, the IMF were to “allow” them to enter Article VIII after 90 days of less than 2% variance, there would still be a risk of failure (back to a greater variance), whereas that risk is eliminated if the float precedes entry to Article VIII. I suspect that the IMF has already informed the CBI that it wants it to move to a new exchange rate regime first. Oh, wait, they already DID THAT, didn’t they?
12-28-2014 Newshound Guru Enorrste …passing the laws alone will not be sufficient to bring in outside capital. The currency MUST be internationally traded before any large investment will enter the country (other than for oil, which is traded in dollars). Therefore, again, the float must occur prior to the introduction of outside investment. Since he [the CBI chairman] is “outgoing” and is to be replaced by Shabibi, anything he says, regardless of how we interpret it, is moot. Furthermore, we KNOW Shabibi’s position. He is the architect of the plan. ‘Nuff said.
12-28-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni I am not disputing that the dinar may some day be $3+, but like I said, it will never get there overnight. Economic and monetary principals do not allow it. Once the CBI begins to start raising the dinar based on market forces (investment, the capital account, etc.) to counter inflationary pressure created it could take years to reach 1 to $1 and even longer to reach 3+.
12-28-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni …once Shabibi is back in his office an had the CBI in compliance with the IMF, he more than likely will move to Article VIII which will allow the dinar to begin to rise based on the new Exchange Regime (some kind of float). That being said, many have said the dinar is undervalued and some sort of correction would occur. The problem is we don’t know what the “correction” is. It could be to .10 cents or $1. No way to tell. In any case, we must wait and see. The important thing is that the GOI must create the environment for the market economy to flourish (laws, security, etc.) Iraq needs to be in a stage of economic recovery for this project to succeed.
12-28-2014 Newshound Guru sczin11 [THE BUDGET IS THE CAR AND THE CBI HAS THE KEY.] AND WHO IN THE CBI HOLDS THE KEY TO START THE ENGINE? IMHO, DR.N SHABIBI HOLDS THE KEY! I STILL SAY RATE BEFORE BUDGET…DR SHABIBI WILL PULL THE CAR OUT OF DRIVEWAY! THEY CAN HAVE WORTHLESS BUDGETS…WHAT WE WANT IS A FULLY VALUED BUDGET.
12-28-2014 Newshound Guru sczin11 [iyo when is shabbs given his position back?] IMHO, HE IS, I REPEAT, IS BACK, WORKING HARD WITH THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS, AND THE ANNOUNCEMENT SHOULD BE FORTHCOMING…S O O N! [Do you think the budget posted at parliament has something special in it we can’t translate?] NO, I THINK ANYONE THAT PROFESSED THE RATE WOULD BE CLEARLY POSTED IN THE BUDGET, HAS NO CLUE WHAT A BUDGET LOOKS LIKE. [Are we close?] IMHO, YES.
12-28-2014 Newshound Guru Arthur The reality of this investment is and always has been that by its very nature there are no definitive dates or rates to be found so all we can do is our very best due diligence in looking at all the veritable information we can see with our own eyes, filter what little veracious and reliable intel we can glean along with the almost indecipherable, intentionally ambiguous articles and make some educated guesses based on empirical evidence over time. Based on that, we can all agree that this is the most exciting time we have ever seen in this investment. End of year excitement is always abundant since that is usually the time when countries implement their annual budgets, but this year is by far filled with the most palpable and positive expectation any of us have ever seen to date.
12-28-2014 Newshound Guru Arthur First of all this is the first EOY we have ever witnessed devoid of the notorious Nouri al-Maliki…this new PM Abadi is proving to be an historically great and eminent leader. How many world leaders actually successfully do what they say they are gonna do on a consistent basis? And how many parliaments or congresses actually assent and collaborate with a leader the way we are witnessing in the case of Iraq? None that I have ever seen which makes for all the appropriate conditions one would think a country aspiring to international greatness could possibly want or need to achieve its stated goals as a global donor nation.
12-27-2014 Newshound Guru sczin11 Article quote: “He said al-Abadi in a speech on the occasion of sovereignty: He Abadi: Iraq is not bankrupt, while noting that the country is facing a cash problem because of the decline in global oil prices, pointing out that the Council of Ministers was able to pass the state budget for the next year in 2015, has been read by the House of Representatives first reading, expecting things to be better than expected.” HERE IS PRIME MINISTER ABADI SPEAKING PROUD OF HIS COUNTRY, THE NEW IRAQ! this MAY VERY WELL HAVE BEEN THE ANNOUNCEMENT WE WERE WAITING FOR. NOW BRING ON DR. SHABIBI!
12-27-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [Could you explain the time frame involved with the procedures requested to get the budget to the Gazette.] I won’t be surprised to see the budget officially in place before the end of the year. [does a 2% spread between the market rate, and the official rate have to be maintained for 90 days before an RV can happen? If so, did we just start over because they fell out of compliance sometime in the last week?] No, that is not an actual requirement to RV. The CBI can make the decision to RV at any time regardless of any spread, rate, or timeline.
12-27-2014 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 Zebari said in a meeting that import taxes would begin on January 20th…( IMO to impose such a tax I would think a monetary change would come FIRST…) Then in an article it was stated that they could not disclose the full budget…so I guess they need to pass it before they find out whats in it. I am on watch from sunday night to the 31st…The ISX reopens on the 7th…All this ties together but we just don’t know for certain how it rolls out.
12-27-2014 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 THE BUDGET IS LIKE IF I WERE TO GIVE YOU A NEW CADILLAC IT WOULD NOT BE OF MUCH USE TO YOU TILL I GIVE YOU THE KEYS TO START IT. WELL THE KEYS TO THE BUDGET IS A RATE AND THEY CAN PASS THE BUDGET BUT IT IS NOT DRIVABLE TILL THEY GET THE RATE. THEY HAVENT HAD ALL THE EMERGENCY MEETINGS AND BEEN PUSHING ALL THESE LAWS AND BUDGET THROUGH FOR WEEKS AND MONTHS TO FINISH AND THEN QUIT. THEY WILL ISSUE A RATE SO THE GOI CAN TAKE THEIR NEW WHEEL FOR A DRIVE.
12-27-2014 Intel Guru Frank26 The 2015 Budget Is Passed! You can wait all You want for the articles to show You methodically…But I’m telling You…It is passed preparing itself for the Gazette.
12-27-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [Do things seem to be “GLITCH FREE” with all aspects of law, currency, HCL, Payments to Kurds,and what ever else can be a potential blocker? In your Knowing Circle, will the rate be available for January 1 2015 or are we before a fork in the road like December 2010?] I don’t think we are coming up on a fork. Abadi has changed the course of Iraq for the better – the future is bright, get your shades ready!
12-27-2014 TOTAL RUMOR Guru On iraq tv 2015 budget ratified to be in official gazette on jan 1.
Fact check, according to numerous articles, the budget is set for the second reading on Jan 7th. It clearly cannot have been ratified.
12-27-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni I believe the most accurate information is coming from the IMF. The articles in Iraq are confusing because we receive many different views. IMO, once the economic laws are in place (hopefully January or February), Iraq’s economy will begin to take off. And the result of investment will initiate the project to reform the currency as stated by the IMF. That is the only sensible way for Iraq to make monetary change and delete the zeros. It’s not overnight, and yet still a few months out, but…as long as it gets there, that’s all that matters.