Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 12-12-14
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions 12-12-14
12-12-2014 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 The Kurds speak of independence…the Kurds speak of not using IQD because of the 3 zeros…Every MAJOR foreign country and investor (even Kuwait) are going into the Kurd region FIRST for investments…So riddle this…How does this fair for the CBI and lost revenue if everyone in Kurdistan is floating around Euro and USD…What does that do for the CBI …the market rate…? I guess they will need to depend on Basra…Then the threat of ISIS announcing their own coins to circulate…what if those coins have more value then the CBI $$$…and people start to accept them because they are gold and silver…The CBI is in a tough spot…Best make your currency desirable with value…AND QUICK !!
12-12-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Zebari: the dinar exchange rate remains stable” Quote: “so our priority at this meeting to give a comprehensive picture of the economic and financial reality of Iraq” They are sure making a big deal about currency stability. Why do you think that is? Because the IMF demands that they meet the 2% spread for compliance. We all know Iraq tries to get things without doing the work. Does everyone remember Iraq called for removal from UN Chapter 7 for over two years before they actually meet the conditions? IMO, this is the same thing…the IMF said….your doing good, but your 2.6% and that is not good enough. And the CBI went..shucks. Now the hype is starting to try and bend the rules. Unlikely the IMF will give an inch, I stick with February 28th date…BTW, November 24th the market rate dropped to 1198. So technically, the countdown could begin then and end February 24th. To be sure, I am giving it the full month.
12-12-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Believe me the CBI does what the IMF says. One way or another, they do it…as for 90 days. Here is the fact…the IMF charter clearly states a member country must hold the 2% for 90 days. This is in Iraq’s best interest as the magnitude of failure could be catastrophic if they do not know what they are doing when they go to Article VIII. That being said, I have not found it written in any document “specific” to Iraq that I can prove it. Could there be a special arrangement? Sure…do I think there is? No. 90 days.
12-12-2014 Newshound Guru Stryker The Arbain ceremony in Karbala has been attended by millions but will end today and the 2015 Budget will be front and center once again in tomorrows Council of Ministers meeting. Iraqis are not lined up outside banks, they are not celebrating in the streets and the Iraqi TV stations are not scrolling monetary reform is almost completed. The facts are, there are still a few things that need to be done before we see the RV take place. Also, there is no 60 or 90 day wait period put on the 2% parallel rate before the RV can take place.
12-12-2014 Newshound Guru wmawhite [do you have opinion on this 2% issue?] One particular person I consult in is a very successful financial type of person told me that the 2% requirement does not apply to Iraq because it applies to exchange rates. The IQD does not have exchange rates. Instead, and because it has a programed buy and sell value the 2% rule is mute.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru wmawhite JMO, if we listen to what is being told to us by the CBI, PM, CoM, they are giving us a multitude of clues as to what their intentions are. [Do you think the apparent “shrinking” of ISIS will help bring on the R/V?] This will be a financial event not a political event…look around the middle east at far worst countries and their currency is at a higher value than the IQD. The CBI will do this when they are ready financially. Again, the clue…indications… their actions…they are preparing for this to take place. The CBI cares about the stability on the financial sector. The CBI is driving this boat…all of the political folk are now trying to catch up because their boat is getting ready to leave.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru wmawhite [Why would Iraq even think of revaluing its currency when it is making such huge progress at the imposed rate? Not to mention, all the international help its getting to keep it going?] Because will need a currency to enter the international trade markets to start with…no currency…no trade…second, if they have to pay 1166 IQD for every 1 USD of goods…they will be broke within weeks. [what is your opinion of how much IQD is actually out there?] I have never stated how much IQD the USA has because I don’t know…the CBI knows exactly how much is outside of Iraq because they are the ones who sold it…and they don’t care how many people own it or if one person owns it…it is all the same to them. However, they have told us that they are bringing the note count down ALOT…like down to 1 billion notes. To me…that indicates a fixed RI/RV and no float.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru wmawhite [do you think were still 4 months out like some are saying?] I honestly believe that they are pushing hard all across the financial and political fronts to get this done and remember, that budget is useless…no good outside of Iraq unless the CBI does their thing first. In other words…I believe this may happen at anytime. I believe the CBI has a time frame they are targeting and they need to coordinate their moves with many other entities outside of Iraq.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni …some overnight RV…It’s not…going to happen., It’s going to gradually rise (float) from the current rate at 1166. This statement direct from the IMF Article IV Consultation is very clear…”staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect,”. No where in that statement does it say staff says RV then float, or staff wants the CBI to RV and then gradually raise the value. What they DO say is…”Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate”.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [ I read iraq is having a cash crisis. They are cutting their pay. How does this affect the dinar rv?] There’s no cash “crisis” from what I have read – actually, the opposite. The bigwigs have elected to take a pay cut, most likely understanding that doing so will free up cash and budget to help the CBI increase the value of the dinar, so in reality they aren’t taking a “cut” – they are taking a STAND for the increase of the value!
12-11-2014 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 I just read Kaps [reference Guru Kaperoni’s post 12-11-2014] NEW take on the Market Rate… That said…You mean to tell me that all the hoopla posted before about them being at 2% of compliant was wrong…and now they need to be under 1200 for at least 90 days starting errrrrr yesterday… The FACT is that most MAJOR market economies float their currency…Iraq is not even close yet…And that is why IMO there will be NO float!! And from economist and the CBI past articles…The BEST time to raise the 3 zeros is at the beginning of the year…NOT IN THE MIDDLE!! This has been a statement several times in the past…And in addition to that is Barzani saying…Kurdistan will not open and operate the ISX under 3 zeros…(but yet the ISX is being tied in with the ESX so how will that work??)…Barzani has a history of doing what he says…And I believe him on this currency issue, he was quite clear!
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday THE IMF…INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND…ENDING THE WORK IN IRAQ AND THE HUGE WORK WITH THE WORLD BANK TO FUND PROJECTS AND THE SPEED ON THE BUDGET OF COURSE ARE ALL THINGS THAT EXPLAIN WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW. THE WORLD BANK IS WORKING WITH MOUS TO GET IN INVESTORS AND BANKS ARE OPENING THAT ARE INTERNATIONAL BANKS AND WE KNOW THAT THE GOV HAS ASKED THAT THE CBI DOES NOT GIVE OUT ANY NEW BILLS UNLESS IT COMES WITH THE PROGRAM OF REMOVING THE THREE ZEROS. THEY ARE IN A HUGE HURRY TO GET THE BUDGET DONE DUE TO DEMANDS OF MILITARY SO THEY ARE WORKING ON IT NOW. WE KNOW THAT LACK OF NEWS IS ALWAYS A ROAD TO LOADS OF BIG NEWS OR AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST.
12-11-2014 Newshound Guru Aggiedad77 Article: “Assurances parliamentary passage of the budget in the coming days” “In the coming days”…”in two days”…”next week”…are they working on a budget for 2015…you betcha…are they ready to show us the budget…I doubt it…maybe the “next week” scenario works…after the Cabinet meets next Tuesday in their regular meeting…will the Parliament suddenly grow wings and get this budget approved before the end of the year…possible…they have proven they are capable I think…time will tell.