Sistani, Iraq .. excludes al-Maliki from power!!
Sistani, Iraq .. excludes al-Maliki from power!!
Tuesday, May 27th, 2014 16:00
Amid murmurs of information and information counter, leaks uncertain and doubtful about convergences and consensus and secret deals of them and declared, the Electoral Commission in Iraq, will be announced two days after the preliminary results of partial, which can be in the light predict who will be the Prime Minister of Iraq next year.
Compared with the atmosphere of the post-2010 elections, which did not show the split Shiite – Shiite or Sunni – Sunni clear, due to sectarian hardening declared then among the largest alliances, (National Alliance) and (coalition in Iraq), but the last two years have seen Afteraca sharply within the coalitions, What Vkkhma to multiple components, both of which seek to achieve electoral victory on each of them.
While it began, Iraqi Prime Minister outgoing Nuri al-Maliki, his efforts to impose a third term opponents of former allies of the Shiites, and the traditional adversaries of the Sunni Arabs, on the basis of achieved a big difference voices of his closest rival, does not look at the horizon is any indication of such a possibility, after the cut Commission removes all doubt confirm the non-arrival of any political list to 80 seats.
The rejection of ISCI, the Sadrists, and the block are united under the leadership of House Speaker Osama Najafi renewal of the owners a third term, the obstacles harder generally Maliki, the fact that two of them Sdrta for Shi’ite allies from possible can achieve together a large number of seats could be up to more than 70 What seats will destroy the hopes of the arrival of a coalition of state law, the only candidate to the post of prime minister.
If Damascus and Riyadh players strong in naming the prime minister in 2010, the regional situation surrounding Iraq today is totally different, it has been neutralized role of the Syrian and Saudi where because of the Syrian crisis, what makes the regional conflict confined between Tehran and Washington, but not with the same momentum intervention in the former , for several reasons, in the forefront of the Iranian nuclear file and try to flirt with Tehran, Riyadh, since Iran is trying to Rafsanjani, during a visit to Riyadh openness to Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud.
In addition to regional and international players, can not ignore the effects of the Iraqi interior, particularly the reference Najaf and its leader, Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who called on all Iraqis imitators and to change, and the selection of the fittest and most efficient for membership of the Parliament. If the position of the reference anti-Maliki took the third term, does not appear openly and publicly so far, but he did not rule out that this is done soon, especially since the representative reference in Karbala identified, guidelines for the selection of cabinet ministers, as well as the signals and many messages passed by reference Sistani Iran is refusing to give al-Maliki as prime minister for a third term, in order to prevent the outbreak of sectarian strife.
The answer to Mr. Sistani to a question by one of imitators on the vote some of them for the benefit of al-Maliki, despite the rejection of the reference to it, to shed light on the position of reference which will unfold soon for the benefit of an offset-Maliki, when asked Sistani to close this file does not make a reason to sow discord and disagreement.
But both Iran and the reference Najaf urging the need to revive the Shiite alliance, as it matched the views of the two rivals about it, as preserves the unity of Iraqi Shiites, and gives them the power of the largest bloc, which names the prime minister, according to the constitution.
And pre-empted both the Supreme Council headed by Ammar al-Hakim, and the Sadrist movement, announcement of election results by suggesting paper alliance and national cross-sectarian with the Kurds, Sunnis, and Iyad Allawi, which has led to the emergence of the voices of Iranian calls to abandon the idea of insisting on al-Maliki, despite convinced officials the Iranians that the leaders of the Supreme Council The Sadrists are not going to challenge Iran politically, though they continued rejection, the task of negotiating leverage in order to reach their goal.
That the political situation is hard to Sadr and al-Hakim of the prime minister, perhaps for some incomprehensible, it means in the face of change bloc that has captured the power throughout the eight previous years not only was the rejection of Maliki’s nomination for the job, there is (Vito) Tri-Maliki Party ( call) headed by a coalition of (state law), so that can not deliver the presidency of the new government for one of these, but in essence try smart for (infanticide) orientations Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iraq dossier, and the Hawks Tehran regime who wish to remain al-Maliki in office.
The orientations strong (Herald) of the chest and Hakim to form a new government through non-sectarian alliances, spooked Iran, which does not appeal to form this kind of alliances with the national nature, especially if the reference Sistani supports the process of change, but they called him explicitly, which paid to retreat a little, through postpone it pending the final results, even though the Qassem Soleimani, who visited Iraq last March, supports the choice of Maliki for a third term and that he had informed the Iraqi politicians who met the need for the survival of Maliki.
According to the atmosphere of the discussions Shia – Shia on forming a government, that Tehran’s priority is survival (National Alliance) in its current form, and not to risk fragmentation, or split into two fronts, one may choose to search for an alternative to support Tehran. At the same time sent a reference Najaf, clear signals to the Shiite leaders of key since the beginning of last April in favor of a trend that is adopted by the leader of the Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim, and the judge to transfer (the National Alliance) to the institution concerned with the selection of the prime minister, without showing yet a final position of Names raised.
In the corridors of political talks, leads the efforts to restore the power of the National Alliance and restructuring, as one of the most important priorities at this stage, but on the basis of a new make him a strong institution sets the standards and terms of choice of prime minister. In spite of the viewpoints Almottagatotain, between al-Hakim and al-Maliki, about the re-production of the Shiite alliance again, but that prevail in the end, may be for the benefit of the mechanisms that wants Hakim adopted, because they are compatible with what you want reference Najaf, insisting on change also insisted on writing the constitution, Today Iran is well aware that it is not in the position to dictate its will on the Iraqi Shiite forces, which Asttert cloak Sistani.
In light of these variables local, regional and international, looks fortunes of al-Maliki, a third term is promising, despite the leaks on the progress of the coalition of state law on the rivals of the Supreme Council and the Sadrists, but the reasons for the task may prevent that achieves Maliki the finish, so he was on the sidelines of this map triple, there is a strong and streams and other characters such as “Badr Organization” and “Virtue Party” and “Reform Movement” and independents and other allied with al-Maliki. But it is not unlikely to change these forces addressed the alliance in favor of al-Hakim and al-Sadr, in particular the Badr Organization, which is led by Hadi al-Amiri, and may be joined by the head of the independent Hussain al-Shahristani, the addition can not exclude the deep differences that erupt inside the Dawa party, after a bitter defeat suffered by the leaders call for the election, as it was unable to prominent leaders such as Hasan al-Walid and ornaments from getting the votes qualify to get into the parliament again, while Ali al-Adeeb harvested on about 13 000 votes in Karbala, compared to 54 041 thousand defectors Maliki. They certainly blame al-Maliki and his policies for this failing.
However, the most important of the reasons above, the lead position of the reference Sistani firm and decisive about the state of al-Maliki, the third, in terms of its impact on Iran’s stance in support of the owners, since it would be very unlikely to oppose the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s position reference Najaf from the renewal of the owners, and despite Iran’s call for the forces of Shiite the need to form a government within two months, but al-Maliki will remain in a caretaker government for two years, a period that al-Maliki secretly negotiated by Iranian leaders.
The Booz Allen Hamilton Center for Studies and Research of the CIA said in a report after 48 hours at the end of the voting process that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki would sustain a severe loss. The report said that al-Maliki has key allies and angered the religious establishment, led by al-Sistani, the Shiite community reference because of non-implementation of promises which launched four years ago and the ongoing crises with the Kurds and Sunnis. He predicted the loss of the majority he enjoyed receiving and 60 parliamentary seats to the best estimate.
The Center estimates Booz Allen Hamilton for the results of the Iraqi elections, serve as an early announcement of the results announced by the Commission, has been ratified by 100% since 2005 until now.
It is expected to spin the negotiation process after the announcement of the final election results between the two teams, the first aimed at the survival of Maliki in power and the second aims to prevent al-Maliki of the third term, either the issues of supporting the economy and stop the violence and provide services it is far from the attention of the parties, but the negotiations will not be short and will take months, and the problem is not that the time factor affects Maliki, who will remain on the run without government controls governing its work as a caretaker government, but al-Maliki will be outside in the end.
In such an atmosphere contradictory, seems to be the option most likely to agree on a compromise candidate, as in 2006, when it was chosen Maliki, conform to the parties inherent in the Shiite house and the answer, of course, the Iranian standards do not face rejection of Kurdish boycotted, or incite the Sunni Arabs, which means The coming days will confirm that the process of the formation of the Iraqi government are subject to the wills of both external and internal will not only imposed by the ballot box. But the reference Najaf, also emphasizes sources close to them, you want to separate the character from outside the traditional Shiite forces have the mandate and the degree of relative autonomy to work in isolation from the conflicting interests of the parties, to prevent a repeat of what is happening now disable the Iraqi state in all the joints.
And compete in parliamentary elections 0.9032 candidates, including 6425 men and 2607 women, 328 seats, while the number of voters covered by universal suffrage 20 million and 437 thousand and 712 people, and the number of voters covered by the Special vote, one million and 23 thousand, either absentee for the displaced is 26 alpha and 350.
The number of polling stations year 8075 center included 48 thousand and 852 stations, and the number of agents of political entities more than 100 A, either by international observers has been the adoption in 1249 of them, as well as the adoption of 37 thousand and 509 local observers, as the number of media international 278, and Local 1915 media.
Announced the Electoral Commission, that the rate of participation in the suffrage generality of the Iraqi provinces amounted to 60%, and while suggesting participation of more than 12 million voters in universal suffrage, of whom more than 165 000 voters in exile and diaspora.