Maliki is making progress in a relatively elections and winning a third term needs to be a “miracle”
Maliki is making progress in a relatively elections and winning a third term needs to be a “miracle”
Posted 06/05/2014 01:44 PM
BAGHDAD – Fadel ÇáäÔăí *
Despite the declared figures conflicting results of the general elections held on April 30 last year, denied the Independent Electoral Commission of those numbers, the more preliminary results of informal indicate progress relative to the leader of a coalition of “state law” and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in most provinces of central and southern Iraq, with a majority Shiite rivals, coalition representatives “citizen” led by Ammar al-Hakim, the current Liberal movement and lists supporting him. Whatever the number of seats by al-Maliki to outperform rivals, that is not enough to guarantee winning a third term as prime minister.
Observers believe that the al-Maliki in need of something like a “miracle” to achieve this, especially with the Federal Court’s interpretation in 2010 the concept of “largest bloc” who considered it bloc in the House of Representatives and not winning the largest number of seats in the elections. Therefore, the coalition of “state law” Maliki is incapable of the Declaration of winning the final even with receiving supposedly the largest number of parliamentary seats.
addition, the nature of the system of political consensus and proportional representation, which produced the era after the American occupation in 2003, is designed in a way so strict do not allow for the party, no matter the number of parliamentary seats, which obtained, uniqueness authored the government. If Maliki could, for example, to get between 80 and 100 of the total seats of the 328 House of Representatives, will be in need a two-thirds majority (219 seats) to choose the President of the Republic in the first ballot and a majority of half plus one (165) at the second ballot in If no agreement in the first round, the same number he needed to vote on the president and cabinet members. Even if you got the seats “blocking third” (109 seats), can his opponents, that they wanted, beyond that. Understanding of the practical need to have 165 seats, just to pass the posts of presidents and ministers. Perhaps all of that imposed by the data on the ground, especially with the existence of “quasi-consensus” among the various factions, both within the Shiite house, or in the circles of the Kurdish blocs and the Sunni Arab, to deny al-Maliki for a third term. However, that does not reduce the importance of international and regional factor, Maliki managed during the 2010 elections of the kidnapping of the second term at the expense of his rival, Iyad Allawi, with the help and support of a U.S. – Iranian. It is not clear yet what is the nature of the movements of the two countries over the next prime minister, but a lot of speculation linking categorically put Iraq on the one hand and the situation of the Arab region, especially in Syria and Lebanon, and there are stresses that the issue of choosing a prime minister next, representing the axis linking files between the three countries.
altahreernews.com
