Maliki wins and loses numerically the third term

Maliki wins and loses numerically the third term


Maliki wins and loses numerically the third termBAGHDAD / bright Abbas

Will not be able to block any Iraqi political rival of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to win in the parliamentary elections, which starts today. But a coalition of political forces led by the leader of the “citizen” Ammar al-Hakim may succeed in snatching the next prime minister, al-Maliki is not alone, but from “the Dawa Party,” which centered on strategies that position.

According to information of the Electoral Commission and observers of political entities, that the voting trends in the special ballot, which included about 850 thousand security element, and arrive 23 deputies out of 328 to the Parliament recorded a surprise, as it did not get his coalition, the largest share, as expected, while the distributed votes Iraqis abroad, which was attended by about 109 thousand voters and affect the results in almost 3 seats, a number of political entities without registration offers clear a particular party.

It was Maliki’s coalition conducted polls continued throughout the months that preceded and followed the eruption of the crisis Anbar beginning of this year, proved the possibility of receiving a 100-seat, at least, but this built his election to devote the concept of “government of the majority” that require 165 deputies, at least for the renewal of the mandate for the third time, In addition to supporting the formation of a number of coalitions collocated in arenas Sunni and Shiite, and succeed in the delivery of 40 deputies overtime, backed by 15 deputies in alliance with the “National Union” led by President Jalal Talabani, who is locked in a sharp conflict against the Kurdish government and the Party of Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani, and the movement of “change.” .

But data in recent weeks suggest the difficulty of winning more than Maliki’s bloc of 70 deputies. And increased chances stumbled fatwa issued by Sheikh Bashir al-Najafi (a reference to the four major Shiite) prohibiting the election, and to support the coalition, “the citizen” led by al-Hakim.

The crisis of the state-Maliki third are not related to the size that Senallh Shiite, but in the opinion trends do not refer to the possibility of achieving the lists of alternative and collocated or those eligible for an alliance with the year, such as the existing “Arab” led by Saleh al-Mutlaq, and the “coalition of Iraq,” the results of a large, compared to Bechtel rejected early alliance with al-Maliki, such as “united” and “Iraq” and “dignity” and others. Will not greatly affect the security situation does not fatwas to boycott the elections, the last of which was launched yesterday, Sheikh Abdul-Malik al-Saadi, in combination map Sunni forces (about 65-70 seats).

Data prior to Election Day in turn, indicated that the block may be wise horse winner in the race, they may apply to twice the weight of former parliamentary (16 seats), while not expected to occur to the Sadr bloc fundamental change (currently 40 seats).

Can not measure the impact of a fatwa Najafi in digital form on the orientations of the voting base for al-Maliki popular, especially to those affected by today’s Al Qaeda Anbar repercussions of the crisis, and the inability of the Prime Minister to resolve the battle there as he had promised his audience, and this is reflected in the vote of the security forces.

And traded among close to Sistani reference that will have a role in determining the personal names of the next prime minister from outside the traditional circles of the religious parties (SCIRI and al-Sadr and the call), but it will not put pending the outcome of the vote.

Today the Iraqi electoral term, may reshape parliamentary different to the one formed by the 2010 elections, for the first time, there are chances for small powers, most notably “The current civil” and independent figures, in winning a number of seats will make the development of alliances adult task more complicated.