The wrath of al-Sistani and al-Sadr and al-Hakim alliance will pay the call to replace Maliki

Carnegie: the wrath of al-Sistani and al-Sadr and al-Hakim alliance will pay the call to replace Maliki

12.29.2013 (0:01 pm)

al-MalikiTranslation term

Saw an international research center, a senior al-Maliki’s chances of winning a third term depends to a large extent on the performance of the electoral _khasmah Shiites, the Sadrists and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and their ability to form a coalition of anti-him.
Fadel said Ulkipaúa, in an article in the location of the Carnegie Endowment, he was “as Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to contest the next parliamentary elections for the third time, the looming challenges daunting. Has become al-Maliki, more than ever, a deeply divisive figure in Iraqi politics – opponents many and multi, but faces the strongest opposition, political and religious, of the Shiite sect to which he belongs. ”
He Ulkipaúa a researcher of Iraqi assets, saying that “some indicators show that the spiritual leader of the Shiites in Iraq, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, does not support the survival of Nuri Maliki as prime minister for a third term, but the latter is betting that al-Sistani to distance himself from the intervention. ”
and he felt “despite the fact that al-Maliki seems aware of the disapproval of al-Sistani for his performance, but it exploits abstention Sistani to intervene in politics (even that Sistani does not meet politicians) to deny what is said about losing the support of the religious establishment. ”
The Iraqi writer that “al-Sistani belongs to the Shiite ideology traditional, which is that the role of the reference in the policy is limited to providing advice without bias to one party or another, but if it is exposed the identity of the community Islamic threat, and this is what led him to intervene in the adoption of the Constitution of 2005. ”
However, the representatives of Sistani expressed, he says Ulkipaúa, “dissatisfaction with al-Maliki (without named explicitly), and its performance, especially in matters of national security and national unity (including addressing protests Sunni and mismanagement of security, not to mention corruption). ” He noted that “these criticisms pass in his Friday sermon, in a manner consistent with the approach of al-Sistani.”
He continues Ulkipaúa saying that “Iran played a crucial role in helping al-Maliki to win a second term in 2010 when he needed to the voices of the Sadrists., and shortly thereafter, it was announced Muqtada al-Sadr , the leader of the Sadrist movement, that Iran forced him to vote for the owners, “pointing out that” observers consider that al-Maliki has caused during his second term of stoking sectarian again, and the weakening of national unity, and the exclusion of independent institutions of power. ”
and he felt “in this context, the religious establishment Shia in Iraq, especially Hawza in Najaf, and its reference Ayatollah al-Sistani, is the only Iraqi capable of curbing Iranian hegemony. Moreover, can this institution to raise suspicions among Iraq’s Shiites about the legitimacy of Tehran religious., however, distanced Shi’ite religious establishment itself from interference prevents enable it to respond to Iranian influence, and therefore will remain Sistani’s role in the reduction of Iranian influence in Iraq marginally in the short term. ”
and sees Ulkipaúa that “at the present time, most likely that Tehran would wait for the results of the elections in 2014 to decide who is the which will be supported. Given that the Iranian economy is suffering from the crisis, due to the sanctions, will not allocate Tehran resources to support specific individuals, even if they are allies, during their election campaigns. ”
He Iraqi writer saying that “the threat of electoral largest faced Maliki is from within his electoral base sectarian character, especially from the Sadrists and ISCI. The results of the parliamentary elections and the recent local, which failed the “coalition of the rule of law” (ie, Maliki’s bloc) to get a majority of the seats, indicates that it needs additional support from Avriqa others, and perhaps also from his opponents, to be able to win again in the elections. ”
and saw the political scientist said that “Iran maintains good relations with all parties Shiites key about (the call, and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and the Sadrists). Desiring to increase their gains to the fullest extent, the Ghalib probably they would wait to see if it will appear alliance an anti-owners and gaining momentum. ”
likely Ulkipaúa saying, “If the form of this alliance a threat enough for the owners, it is likely that you are using Iran for more concessions from Maliki exchange for the promise to push it back to power.”
said political analyst that “the chances of al-Maliki stops to win a third term, to a large extent, on the performance of the electoral _khasmah Shiites, the Sadrists and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and their ability to form an alliance of anti-owners., but they miss the political influence needed to commercialize their candidate for prime minister, but would do alliance between them that compels perhaps Maliki’s bloc to nominate a personal alternative from within the party invitation. ”
confirms Fadel Ulkipaúa, is the author of “The role of the Najaf Hawza and Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in the restructuring of the system of government in Iraq after the Baathists,” that this “seems to be the same result he wishes Sistani; Valtabon him in their sermons incite their followers not to vote (for the current corrupt officials) in reference to al-Maliki. ” He added that “can Sadrists and ISCI to use what is rumored displeasure Sistani of al-Maliki in order to ensure that the loss of the latter’s support.”
felt by saying, “If they succeed in achieving this, they may consider the Dawa party of the new to replace the candidate at the last minute, and farewell Maliki final. ”