Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions. 9-16-2013
Iraqi Dinar Guru opinions. 9-16-2013
9-16-2013 Newshound Guru Doc Before all the “RV rate in in the budget” rumors heat up lets put it to bed now. Here is a recent article quote “Committee member Rep. Nora Bijari said in a statement (morning) that the draft budget next year (2014) be found at the Ministry of Finance a budget large, as amounting to nearly 146 trillion dinars, and the ministry will send a copy of the budget to the Council of Ministers for the purpose of voting on them”.
9-16-2013 Newshound Guru Doc Notice the amount of 146 trillion dinar. If it contained a RV rate of $1 the budget would be in the range of 150 billion dinar and if it contained a rate of $3 the budget would be around 50 billion dinar. Most likely the 2014 budget is being compiled with an assumed rate of …1166, the current program rate. This is just further evidence that the most likely path forward for currency reform is a gradual rise via a float rather than an immediate step change to a high value like $3+. We report, you decide.
9-15-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: “Expectations of the adoption of the 2014 budget year early” It can only happen if they do what they need to do first. And if that happens, we wont care about the budget.
9-15-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar Article: “Expectations of the adoption of the 2014 budget year early” It would not surprise me if they complete this budget in early October. If as we have been told that the budget is based on 1.16 dinars per dollar it would be to their advantage to complete it as soon as possible. IMO there appears to be a rush now to put the economic house in order including put the legality of the governorship of the CBI.
9-15-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Article: “The Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation on Monday launching ceremony 2013-2017 five-year development plan in the presence of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki” MoP are the ones who have openly advertised a “rate” – 1.13, with “re-appreciation” by competent authorities some time after that.
9-15-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 i…expect to hear great news in the coming days. I have been told from a great source that given the committee’s that are meeting daily finish with agreements ready to place in front of the full parliament when they next convene. if all goes as planned we will at this time be planning our exchange of currency before the end of sept. if these committee’s don’t reach agreements prior to the next full parliament meeting then we could see further delays into october.
9-15-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 I have received a message today from a great source that they could possibly make a rate change next week. He was not sure of this timing but he had been told last wed. that a push was being made to meet monday as a deadline. he stated that he had never been told that the meetings had completed their task or not and that they may have already completed the agreements and if so then all the parliament would need to complete is the vote on banking laws and the hcl so the public can get paid. EITHER WAY…WE CAN SEE THAT OUR WAIT IS ABOUT OVER AND THE BLESSING IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER FROM WHERE WE ARE TODAY.
9-15-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru Arthur Although no one can know for sure the way this is gonna start till after the fact, IMO there are several problems with the float from 1166 theory… I have looked at the articles in question and am not seeing enough evidence to make that leap mainly because it is totally contradictory to other things they have done and are doing toward preparing for this revaluation.
9-15-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru Arthur Why would the Finance Committee be clamoring almost daily for a stronger dinar commensurate with its oil production and exporting capacity, its gold, and its foreign currency reserves if you were just gonna float it from toilet paper? Why would you need to form a new committee just 72 hours ago to set what they called “the equal price of the dollar to the dinar” if all you were planning to do was float it from where it was? They could’ve done that anytime without passing the new RV laws they are about to pass.
9-15-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru Arthur Article Quote: “Which will enhance confidence of the world.” Just opening up the dinar from the worthlessness it is to a floating regime will not “enhance the confidence of the world” and do it “in the coming weeks” as they clearly just announced. IMO the finance committee who controls the CBI is saying that their economy is about to have POSITIVE GROWTH which could be directly attributed to the improvement in the rate of the Iraqi Dinar which will then, IN THE COMING WEEKS, give the world a new confidence in their economy. Seems to me they are in effect announcing a full blown RV in the coming weeks.
9-15-2013 Newshound Guru Doc Many rumors continue and time has proven all false. Obviously the “at any moment” crowd has been shown inaccurate. Other arguments which are incorrect are the value will “increase to that of Kuwait because if it is lower then Iraq will not be getting equal value for its oil” and hence it has to RV at $3+. This statement simply reflects a lack of understanding of global currency markets and can easily be seen as false when looking at Saudi. Saudi’s currency is $0.27. Does this mean Saudi gets less for its oil then Kuwait? Of coarse not. The fact is oil is priced in USD and not the local currency. Each country receives USD and then converts to local currency. It is irrelevant the value of their local currency.
9-15-2013 Newshound Guru Doc We had our currency experts do an interesting exercise. They calculated today’s value based on starting with the value during Sadam’s reign and adjusting for increased money supply, inflation and current oil output. The results were in the range of 50 cents to $1. This is telling in that all mid term goals stated by the CBI, SIGR, etc. has not changed from the $1 target. Our opinion remains that the immediate $3+ opinions have no concrete foundation. The most likely scenario and one the CBI has indicated is a float which we believe will progress to the $1 range gien appropriate time including oil output increases. Unfortunately even this scenario is awaiting the GOI to do its part and pass the necessary supporting laws. We report, you decide.
Guru Critic, Doc is stating more eloquently than I did a few days ago about the falsie of the Iraqi dinar needing to be equal to the Kuwaiti dinar. He is in my opinion the most level headed guru out there, thanks Doc.