Will Iraq’s be the largest oil producer in the world?
Will Iraq’s be the largest oil producer in the world?
There is often a debate in ‘Peak Oil’ about the difference between oil reserves and between sources. The sources simply means amounts, in order to debate the oil is located in the land of a particular country, while the reserve is the amount of oil that can be technically and economically extracted from this source. And in this case the numbers differ very significantly, and judge whether it is located is backed up depends on the drilling of the well and see that they can start production or not.
The mere existence of the reserve is not enough in itself. Because the flow of oil from the well declines with the passage of time, it is important to take into account the rate of oil production from this reservoir, and the timing of his arrival within the supply chain. This is particularly true in the discussions on the assistance to be provided by the reserve to ensure there is sufficient supply available when there is a global demand for it. Obviously Usually, the decisions on production are based on geological and economic, but it is foolish not to recognize the existence of other factors. Let us look at the case of Iraq. It is common to find hypothetically says: Iraq’s oil production will rise to a large extent, and others suggest that it will reach levels of Russia and Saudi Arabia, despite the fact that there are those who say: The production will rise to up to 13 million barrels per day, and the presence of decades if fulfilled in time, they can raise the Iraqi production four-fold to reach 12 million barrels per day by the year 2017. In its own report on Iraq last year, and pointed to the International Energy Agency that the country is already the third largest exporter of oil in the world, with the possibility accompanied by the intention to increase production to much further. The agency noted that Iraq has become the second largest oil producer in OPEC, when Iran outclassed the end of last year.
Iraq currently produces about 3.1 million barrels per day of crude oil, and thus With the possible production levels, and its contribution to global reserves and the need for daily supply, still has a route of way. With the abundance of oil that can be reached, and with the lack of knowledge of the rate at which Saisalh, it is worth studying the conclusions reached by the International Energy Agency before the current increase in violence. This new wave of attacks came after a pause, as a result of decreased violence in the country, and may be an obstacle to further growth in production.
Has been painted and the International Energy Agency are three different scenarios in its report, which made the report replace consult widely in the country. The main scenario of the central or who imagined the agency is continuing high GDP in the country gradually because of stability that has been achieved in the past years. The GDP grew by 10.2% Iraqi last year, and has grown at an increasing rate over the past few years.
It is well known that the country’s oil fields are concentrated largely in two separate areas, first around Basra in the south of the country, and the second in the region around Kirkuk and Mosul in the north.
This distribution is somewhat unfortunate from the point of view of political stability to that region in the south with a Shiite majority, while the North reserves located in the Kurdish region of the country. There is very little of reserves within the Sunni communities that resides largely in the central region of the country.
Recently I wrote «Ewan ميرنز» about the prospects for oil production in the Kurdish region in the north. The reported total output could reach 4 billion barrels of oil, or about 17% of the national reserve. However, with the possibility of exploring new fields in Kurdistan, estimates have been increased by the local government for up to 45 billion barrels. She spoke «Ewan ميرنز», for example, for the development of the Shaikan oil field and the potential it contains between 8 to 13.4 billion barrels. The current production plans seeking to produce 40 thousand barrels per day ‘soon’, with the lifting of production up to 400 thousand barrels per day. The Kurdistan Regional Government believes that it plays a major role in achieving the goal of producing 400 thousand barrels per day this year, one million barrels per day by 2015, and two million barrels per day by the year 2019. The field is being developed by Gulf Keystone Petroleum.
The production of the south current فيتركز about the Rumaila oil fields. BP has committed to spend $ 2.85 billion for improvements in Rumaila this year, with the intention to raise production from 1.4 million barrels per day currently, to 1.45 million, the end of this year, for up to 6 million barrels per day by the year 2017. And will be drilled 300 new wells in the field over the next five years, to reach the goal, including 150 wells will be drilled in the second half of this year. BP operates the field partnership with the China National Petroleum Corporation.
And raises the overall size of the Chinese post when other because of concern that oil supplies through coming years ستضيق, is expected to be moving 80% of oil production in the future towards Asia and China in particular.
With the increasing development in the Majnoon field, which is estimated reserves of 38 billion barrels, thus shows that the country is on track to meet the expectations contained in the contracts. However, there are many restrictions on production in the future, including the infrastructure and the availability of water, and in the future I will discuss these things and why they limit the evaluations optimistic International Energy Agency to the fact that the country will produce 6 million barrels per day by 2020, up to 8.3 million barrels per day Only by the year 2035.
Abdul Ali Salman translation
/ Oil Price