Iraqi Dinar Guru predictions/guesses! 5-11-2013
Iraqi Dinar Guru predictions/guesses! 5-11-2013
5-11-2013 Newshound Guru American Contractor Recently Sansar Capital Management LLC published a report on the Iraq banking sector. I’ve written some notes on some of the details in the report. Such as there is no de-dollarization of the Iraqi economy. Al-Warka Bank is still in receivership and bankrupt. Over 80% of Iraqi’s do not have a bank account. ATM machines are not connected to the national switch and as such customers of one bank cannot access their funds from ATM Machines from another bank. One of the contributing factors of the low usage of banks by Iraqi’s is the lack of trust in the Iraq banking system. The two state banks Rasheed Bank and Rafidain bank are still trying to restructure with the help of the World Bank. The Iraq banking still has more improvements to make in order to compete in the 21st century Middle East. It will get there just take a little more time.
5-11-2013 Intel Guru Redwolf [via Jester] got a tidbit…unconfirmed…that Talibani made his speech and said something like… “the iqd is now an internationally currency…”
5-11-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [since Iraq is #2 O.P.E.C. now—how do they still get by with no world-wide tradeable currency ? what is really going on over there?] It appears that they will never introduce the currency to the world markets at it’s current value, nor should they. However, that changes when they advance the rate.
5-10-2013 Newshound Guru SWFloridaGuy We are close to general progress and economic reform after the political turmoil is ironed out and stability is strong enough to promote economic progression.
5-10-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Article: “Sadr and Hakim discuss, in Najaf, the strategic partnership” This is a key partnership. This may be the real cornerstone for change in Iraq. Sadr and Hakim are keen to get back to a true government of partnership. If this happens in the near future – we are GOLDEN!!
5-10-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar Article: “Iraqi University maintains an extensive seminar delete zeros of the Iraqi currency” This article is interesting. Holding Economic Symposiums on the deletion of the zeros to educate the Association of money changers. These Symposiums have now been going on for more than a month. If the plan is to start a free float at 1000 to 1 or at 1166, and then let the currency be market driven and grow from there…At the point that the currency becomes too expensive and burdensome, they will obviously have to introduce the lower denominations. To train the Association of money changers on the deletion of the zeros seems strange to me, since with each incremental increase in the value of the dinar, everything will have to be adjusted to the prevailing exchange rate anyway at the time.
5-10-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar A free float is a stair step process. Nobody has to train you that the yaun just increased in value. You will see it in the next VCR you buy. So to train people on the final obvious conclusion seems silly to me. My point is this, as the existing currency attains a value that makes it too high to use it in day to day transactions because of the continual growth of the exchange rate, it will become painfully obvious to everyone that lower denominations will have to be introduced to maintain an orderly market. This event requires no special training. It is the natural result of the increasing value of the dinar.
5-10-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar It is only if there is an expectation of a major shock to the system, going from where the currency value is, instantly to a much higher exchange that people would need to be educated on what to expect. It is the shock of dropping the zeros and releasing the smalls all at once, that would require showing the money changers what the new system would be, that would require training and understanding. Nobody has to be trained on slow growth. It is automatically learned as it is experienced. So my question is this, why are they holding these Symposiums at all? In a free float situation they seem totally out of place.
5-10-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar One more thing. Dr. Bakri was hired by the CBI to train and educate the people of a coming event. If you read his statements he describes this event in detail. It is an event he says is where a thousand dinars today will be a thousand dinars tomorrow. He gives examples so as to make it clear. Shabibi was concerned about the first few days following this event. He said anyone found taking advantage of the situation would be prosecuted. How do you take advantage of a free float? There should be no confusion if the currency starts at 1166. It’s just business as usual. One can only take advantage in a scenario where the currency value has drastically changed and the buyer has not aware of it yet.
5-10-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [do you think the RV will happen before Ramadan? If the RV does not happen by then I think we may have to wait at least one more year but I hope not, what do you think?] I’m 50/50 on “before Ramadan”, but that doesn’t mean we are SOL until next year if it doesn’t happen before Ramadan. There’s still a lot that can be done in the 2013 year.