International Study: Iraqis do not perceiving improvement in their situation. .does not mean high purchasing power
International Study: Iraqis do not perceiving improvement in their situation. . The salary increase does not mean high purchasing power
05/08/2013 (23:01 pm)
Associated with development in Iraq, historically its ability to sell oil and production at the world’s oil, but measures to achieve economic growth related to oil may mask some of the economic hardships faced by ordinary Iraqis.
In 1980, after he led the oil crisis in the mid-seventies of the last century to the rise in oil prices, The per capita GDP in Iraq is higher than any other country in the region (with the exception of Israel and the Gulf states) where it reached 3,453 dollars, according to World Bank data.
but this figure dropped sharply in the nineties, during the war between Iran and Iraq and years of sanctions, up to $ 455 in 1997, its lowest level. After a slight rise in 2000, dropped again, to $ 742 in 2000. By the year 2011, he returned to $ 3,501, although these figures are not adjusted for inflation.
should be noted that Iraq is the second largest producer of crude oil now and has the fifth-largest proven reserves of crude oil in the world. While we expect the arrival of the annual growth rate to 9.4% until the year 2016, the Iraqi economy is the fastest growing in the region, according to the Iraqi government.
has brought high oil prices, revenues of $ 94 billion in 2012, and is expected to rise to more than 100 billion dollars in 2013, according to the Economic Survey magazine for the Middle East. The IMF forecasts that GDP growth in Iraq by 9% in 2013.
growth of the public sector
and as a result increase the capacity of Iraq to sell oil after the lifting of sanctions, the expansion of the public sector, and increased the salaries of its employees significantly, leading to the emergence of a middle class strong .
said government employee Saad Al Shammari “Before 2003, the Baath Party everywhere. was difficult to work in such an environment. was afraid to write reports against me, as they did all the time, if we try to criticize their work for any reason. I was afraid to go to work with no time to go back to Dare. ”
he said in a statement to the Network (IRIN) that at the time were forced to work extra hours as a taxi driver. He added, “Now my salary is enough for me and my family, I do not feel any fear in the ministry. My life has changed for the better; have more money and I have a new car.”
and the rate of annual economic growth in recent times in Iraq (“real GDP” rate to account for inflation ) more modest than the growth of nominal GDP, though still well. The economy declined by 28.3% in 2003, according to the prospectus Business Monitor International, but rebounded by 39.6% in the subsequent year. During the period from 2005 to 2011, the economy grew by 6.5% per year, even during the worst years of violence.
however, describes Bassam Youssef, an economics professor at Indiana State University, economic growth in Iraq in the past decade as a “weak” given the weak point of departure – He’s economy stagnated because of the sanctions and the Government of trade restrictive, and is able to spend any money locally – and the sudden influx of cash when he was able to resume oil exports.
added that “what we believe that Iraq is able to do these funds sudden 10 years ago is quite different from what has already happened . ”
waiting for the benefits
reported, economists and aid workers that a large part of the wealth of newly discovered not up to ordinary citizens, due largely to the adoption of the Iraqi economy on oil, government corruption, lack of capacity to implement budgets and failure in the development of the private sector.
explains Joseph ” Although the GDP is going up, but the average Iraqi citizen does not feel so because the ability to spend these funds constrained. ”
In the year 2012, ranked by Transparency International corruption in the Iraqi public sector that is among the highest in the world, , where he was ranked 169 out of 176 countries in the Corruption Perceptions Index.
Speaking Network (IRIN), said Sodibto Mukherjee, who is leading a team of economic recovery and poverty alleviation in the United Nations Development Programme in Iraq, said that “overall economic growth has not translated into improvements proportionate to the welfare of the people. ”
Iraq was always depends on imports, and agricultural and industrial sectors – small already – which was hit by recession under the weight of U.S. pressure for liberalization of imports, what brought a flood of goods cheaper.
as the failure of the oil sector in the creation of many jobs. Has such a sector, about half of the GDP of Iraq in the first decade of the century atheist century, but he hired less than one percent of the workers of the economically active.
After a huge jump in the unemployment rate in the period from 1990 to 2004, according to government statistics, the unemployment rate dropped from 28.1% in 2003 to 11.7% in 2007, and then rose again to 15.3% in 2008.
The unemployment rate today 8%, according to a survey network knowledge of Iraq (IKN), which is based on a narrower definition of unemployment (people who did not occupy any work at all during the seven days preceding the interview and were available for work and are actively looking for a job this week), and 11% using the definition of a more holistic (people who do not work in a “fruitful” or “useful”, and are actively seeking to get to work, but they will do so if improved conditions in the labor market). The government statistics, which uses a broader definition, they are the top. The suffering of women, youth and people living in rural areas of unemployment rates higher than average.
has found the poll conducted by the National Democratic Institute late last year that more than half of Iraqis – 55% – said unemployment as one of the most important exporters of concern the government should respond to .
As for those who have jobs – mostly in the public sector – the payment of the salaries of the biggest does not necessarily mean more purchasing power due to high inflation rates. The consumer price inflation exceeded 50% at the peak of inflation over the past decade, (the ability to some sources, up to 76.5%) in the year 2006. But as of January 2013, dropped the rate to 2.2%, according to the Central Bank of Iraq.
complain Mustafa Ahmed, a father of two from Baghdad, that everything has become more expensive now, he says, “I buy a sandwich with 500 Iraqi dinars, now it cost 5,000 dinars., you fill your car with gasoline compared to 6,000 dinars, but now فأدفع is 30,000 dinars to do so. ”
measurement of poverty
, however, the picture has improved dramatically since the expiration of his years of Iraq under the weight of sanctions. Among all the Millennium Development Goals, Iraq has the greatest progress in the first goal, but has already achieved the goal of halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by half by the year 2011. The proportion of the population living on less than 2.50 U.S. dollars (adjusted for purchasing power parity) of 28 percent in 1990 to 13.9 percent in 2007, then to 11.5 in 2011.
As mentioned PCBS in the clarification of the statistics, that “after end the economic blockade in 2003 and increased wages and salaries in 2007, there has been a marked improvement in the standard of living for families, “and added that” income levels in the government sector, which accounts for its contribution to 45% of total family income has risen, and led to a decline in the proportion of people daily income of less than one dollar per day significantly from what it was in 1990. ”
However, the World Bank believes that the national poverty line – 76 896 dinars per month – is a measure of “much more useful” of economic well-being. With this measure, 23% of the population living in poverty in 2007, according to a survey conducted by the government and the World Bank.
said Bassam Y. “Despite low unemployment rates significantly, but that the poverty rate has remained stubbornly high since 2004.”
research focuses which will be issued later this year for by the government and the United Nations on poverty levels multidimensional – that is the absence of access to basic needs certain – that could reveal higher levels of deprivation.
said Mukherjee “in the middle-income country has witnessed significant economic growth, Do I have to continue suffering from all these unemployment? Should it remain a large number of people below the poverty line? ”
as quickly, he and others to point out that national averages are based on the progress the fastest relatively in the Kurdish region quieter and more stable autonomous in north, and hide the deprivation suffered by the other provinces, such as Qadisiyah, Muthanna and Diyala.
Perhaps the bright side is that poverty in Iraq is not very deep. Has decreased poverty gap index, which tracks the average gap between what the poor spend as a percentage of the poverty line, up from 5.0% in 2006 to 2.6% in 2011, according to government statistics – much less than most other countries. These figures show that while a lot of people standing on the edge of the poverty threshold and could easily fall in براثنه, there are also many poor people who can easily get them out of it with little support. : network Irene