3-25-2013: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
3-25-2013: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
3-25-2013 Newshound Guru Enorrste Article: “World Bank restructure the Rafidain and Rasheed in order to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar” “the Ministry of Finance confirmed that the plans will be the guarantor of restoring Iraqi dinar of his value economic between foreign currencies and this will be part of this plan.” This sentence is the most powerful of all in this article. First, the source of the comment in this sentence is the Ministry of Finance, NOT the World Bank. The Ministry of Finance is a part of the GOI, not a part of Parliament. Therefore, this statement comes from WITHIN the GOI. This is the FIRST statement of support for the raising of the value of the Iraqi dinar from within the GOI.
3-25-2013 Newshound Guru Enorrste Furthermore, the statement indicates that the actions being taken by the World Bank “will be the guarantor of restoring the Iraqi dinar of its value.” WOW! It would be one thing to say that it would “make it possible, someday,” or “open the opportunity somehow.” But instead it said it would GUARANTEE a rise in the value of the dinar. AND IT CAME FROM THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT OF IRAQ! This statement is truly a first, because it indicates that WITHIN the GOI there is now a consensus that the dinar should and WILL be raised. The big question: When?
3-25-2013 Newshound Guru Enorrste The next statement is their squeeky opening: “the World Bank said the Iraqi side that lifted the value of the Iraqi dinar should be a priority as well as he needs to political stability in the country before everything.” The last part of the sentence is the “squeeker” part, namely political stability “before everything.” Therefore, rather than start jumping up and down, I suggest you sit down, relax, and look to the political environment for signs of improvement. Without it, you will not see the dinar rise in value. This means we are back to Maliki (damn it!). I hate to be the bearer of sad news, but that is what the article is saying, at least to me.
3-25-2013 Newshound Guru Enorrste Until the political environment improves (before everything!) the dinar will not rise in value. Just what form that “political environment” improvement must look like is anyone’s guess, but I suspect that it would AT LEAST mean that the current crisis (i.e., Maliki acting as dictator) would have to be ameliorated somewhat. That means that we are back to a no confidence vote, or a change in Maliki. Since the latter is highly unlikely we must hope for the former.
3-25-2013 Intel Guru Frank26 So tomorrow…I will further divulge some understanding on: WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO SEE THE RATE THIS COMING WEEK. A FIXED RATE THAT WILL BE GIVEN TIME BY THE GOI TO ASK FOR A SECOND GREEN LIGHT FROM THE IMF. WE KNOW THE BUDGET WILL BE IN THE GAZETTE THIS WEEK AS WAS ANNOUNCED TODAY BUT APRIL 1ST WILL BUST THIS BUDGET OPEN LIKE A PINATA. THE CANDY IS AN INCREASE IN THE VALUE OF THE IQD.
3-25-2013 Intel Guru Frank26 They painstakingly explained what Article 4 not only means but what the next step is for their country…the IMF’s Article 8. They also proudly announced about CH7 as if it does not even exist anymore because they are giddy about entering CH6 of the UN. Incredibly enough they talked to the citizens about their new position with the WTO and the WB. You know something…this takes a lot of guts to announce on such a public venue if they don’t plan to do it.
3-25-2013 Intel Guru Frank26 late last night DELTA’s Team from Baghdad saw a new campaign to inform the citizens of the pending increase in value by proclaiming through Iraqi TV these facts. With excitement said DELTA…they explained what happened in those 10 days with the IMF and the GOI. They talked about the 85% and now kicked into 30 days. They told the citizens there is no request for loans from the IMF that they are about to increase the value of their currency.
3-25-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 here ae are again with days at the most of a very possible RV and what do we do we have a group of unenvited dignitaries from the USA landed in Bagdad barking orders that they should have been screeming about months ago. NOTHING WILL MOVE IN IRAQ TILL KERRY AND CREW LEAVE THEN HOPEFULLY THEY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK BUT THIS IS ANOTHER DELAY FOR SURE. I WAS PREPARING FOR THE RV NEXT WEEK BUT I CAN SEE…THAT THEY ARE GOING TO PREVENT PROGRESS AGAIN.
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Eagle Has Landed everyone keeps debating whether the 2013 Iraqi Budget is 138 Billion IQD or 138 Trillion IQD. It is NEITHER! the 2013 Iraqi Budget is $138 Billion US DOLLARS as clearly stated in ENGLISH by the Iraqi representative at the UN Security Council Meeting held on Thursday, March 21, 2013. Heck, the Iraqi UN rep even calls for Chapter VII to be lifted on March 31, 2013. That’s correct, he gave an actual date!
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Doc In fact over the last year Shabibi, SIGR, etc. have all commented on a par rate. In ALL cases when the rate is compared to its glory days of around $3.40 it is in the 3-5 year goal and not in the short term. As one of our professors told us in God he trusts, everyone else must bring him data. Only whispers and rumors suggest non sustainable rates. We report, you decide.
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Doc We found another interesting source which alluded to a possible exchange rate. This was straight from the Ministry of Finance web site. There is a section of the site which talks about some rules of thumb for economic evaluation inside of Iraq. What jumps out is the exchange rate suggested by the Ministry is $1.134 per dinar. We note this not to say this will be the “number” but to highlight the fact that NO published source has ever stated rates in the $3+ or $7+ range or any range that was much different than at par with the USD.
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Doc In other words Iraq expects to take in $95.3 million over 2013. Remember oil is priced in USD and not dinar. As we reported previously and still contend the budget is 138 trillion dinar. If you believe 138 “billion” dinar is the actual number then you must concede the assumed exchange rate is $0.69. Even if you subtract 27 billion as quoted as shortfall to be covered by 2012 surplus then the rate would be $0.86 (95.3/111) which is no where near the astronomical rates being rumored.
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Doc We found another article quoting numbers that are supposedly in the 2013 budget. It stated a total budget of 138 billion dinar. The obvious question is is this a misprint and should it be 138 trillion dinar. To confuse things even more it broke it down by saying it was “$83 billion dinar” for operations and “$55 billion dinar” for investment. These obviously can not be in $ and dinar at same time. While we maintain these to be misprints what is consistent in every public source is the budget is based on 2.9 million barrels per day at $90 per barrel. This equates to 95.3 million USD.
3-24-2013 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Article: “URGENT…US Secretary of State arrives in Baghdad” This is exactly the action being called for by most noted foreign policy scholars. It’s about time they heeded good advice!! Further – rumor is, Kerry is there to “affirm” US support for the new strategic alliance with Iraq. This would be part of the deal I have been talking about. Maliki needs this to legitimize his final year. He also needs new troops to provide security!! As I said – this looked like his only way out…
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar Maliki and his goons, under the guise of fixing it, as though the original law is flawed and in need of repairs, really wants to drag this law through the mud and have it re-emerge with the responsibilty and accountibility for the bank falls under the Executive branch…he would love change this law to control the money of Iraq. Instead of continually breaking the constitution, he would love to re-write it.
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Tlar Article: “Deputy Central Bank does not need a new law, but for administrative guidance to support policy” Changing the base law on the CBI that was written and set up by the Bremmer Provisional Government, is a Maliki inspired demand. This bit about changing the law has no basis in fact, and the CBI knows it. The law as written is a good law that will do everything Iraq needs to be able to function both internally and in the international community.
3-24-2013 Intel Guru Bluewolf Banks are maintaining the highest of alerts, basil 3 compliant has been completed…all exchanges in currencies all contractors payments shall be paid off with the 2013 Budget law which by the way was just ratified today in Baghdad by the Presidency ( factual news ). All issues with Kuwait over and done, all political movements in Iraq over and done the shift shall be soon, chapter 7 gone please lets get real on this issue, once the international release is completed the folder shall be close forever, section 8 chapter 6 etc. are different issues pertaining to another level of issues and they serve another purpose independently apart from each other but pertaining to Iraq in the whole. Be advise for there is a lot of smoke in the airways, bottom line is we are solid and on track and the Go button is about to be depressed (released )…
3-24-2013 Intel Guru BOBGETZ6 I was informed by a friend today, who is invested in the future oil business in Iraq, that a contract to export oil is due to be consumated within a month. This person feels as if this is a very good sign as to the intentions of Iraq as well as attracting future investment. Possible RV close, IMO, yes.
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Mountainman Not only is this going to be huge for the oil sector and Iraq’s economy in general but also support all the other legislation held up in Parliament as a result of being tied to it. They’re bickering over 3 different proposals which when enacted (I believe very, very soon), will be good for the federal government and of course all the citizens who have been waiting for equitable distribution. Now that the budget is officially in the gazette, which is far from a RV but progress and next on the menu for the House should be finalizing one of the three HCL drafts.
3-24-2013 Newshound Guru Mountainman HCL is coming, bet on it!! Iraq is losing fifty million dollars daily because of their inability to enact this oil and gas agreement. It’s crucial and it’s reached its boiling point. All parties involved are losing, there are no winners here and international pressure is mounting. This was supposed to be passed but the House of Representatives said at the last minute their was a minor dispute over political visions.