3-8-2013: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
3-8-2013: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
3-8-2013 Newshound Guru Breitling Others are saying that the rate is built into the new budget. That is false. There is not a rate built into the budget. They have talked about what rates they are going to hit and what stages they are going to do it. Do we know exactly how they are going to ladder out the currency we have and at what rate. No, we don’t. We are on the road to be able to profit from this. Nothing but good news coming out of Iraq. It’s all there, it’s all public information, you just have to go through all this information and recognize what they did and what they are doing. Then you have to recognize if they are doing it and that’s the exciting part, they are actually doing it. It’s a beautiful thing.
3-8-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article quote: “the power of the Iraqi dinar and monetary value depends on the strength of the country’s economy and the extent of recovery sectors generating income and not on the auction CBI, he says. Pointed Moussawi to”. The value of the Iraqi dinar does not depend on what is sold at auction CBI but value of the dinar lies in the strength of the country’s economy all segments of industry, tourism, commercial and agricultural,…” If you read this quote carefully, they are telling everyone…the value of the dinar will rise over time based on the success and strength of the development of economic sectors (industry, tourism, commercial and agricultural). Again confirming the dinar will rise in value over time (float) – not overnight.
3-8-2013 Intel Guru SteveI Ray is working on one of his contacts in the upper levels of the CBI for a few hints. Personally, I feel this will be over maybe this weekend or the first of the week. Just a gut feeling. I am not calling it so lets get that straight now. Just a gut feeling as they are hurting so bad. Another reason, Rays guys said yesterday that no one got their money loaded on there smart cards since March 1st. So, just maybe, we are closer than we think.
3-8-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 What is being said is the leadership of Parliament are going to go forward and do what the people of Iraq are protesting over and demanding with or without Maliki. So, take it for what it’s worth. We don’t know what the situation is, but it looks like they have taken some kind of steps to move forward. It appears that we are there. It’s exciting news, but keep it in perspective.
3-8-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru Poppy3 We got great news today, they did pass the budget. I finally confirmed it with the associated press. I appears the Kurds got everything they asked for in the budget and maybe even more. Since they weren’t present when this took place, the question was would they try to stop the radification of it. BGG & I talked about it and we didn’t think so since they got everything that they were asking for and there doesn’t seem to be a dispute about that.
3-7-2013 Intel Guru Goofball BUDGET IS DONE…SIGNED…CL [CHRISTINE LEGARDE] GAVE SPEECH TUESDAY, HINT HINT…72 HOURS AFTER WE MAY SEE SOMETHING, HINT HINT. I THINK CBI WILL SHOW FIRST TO BE HONEST. HCL HAS BEEN DONE A WHILE AS WELL AS ERBIL. IM HEARING VDN IS OVER 1 RIGHT NOW. I FEEL WE ARE IN A GRAND SPOT RIGHT NOW.
3-7-2013 Intel Guru Frank26 I told you that T [Talabani] is in Iraq and has been there for over a week. T now has 15 days to sign the budget. That would take us up to the 22nd but I want you to know that the day before…on the 21st T will make a big deal out of the Kurds New Year. Once again fascinating. we have taken some positive steps in our investment. Is that our new time frame? Yes.
3-7-2013 Newshound Guru Mountainman Well, the budget passed which is great news where general progress is concerned and they allocated a 17% share to the Kurdistan region but and no RV and we shouldn’t be surprised at that at all. The RV was never in the budget but this is a key step for them to move forward. Now the work can begin and the CBI and Finance Committee can move forward with any economic reforms they have planned. Hopefully, the RV/float will be the next priority.
3-7-2013 Intel Guru SteveI [Does Maliki have to sign the budget before it’s officially the law?] Yes, that is what we have been told. He will sign it and then to the CBI for official posting of the new rate. [Are we likely to hear anything more about the rate until Saturday or Sunday at the earliest?] Here is my best guess. It is getting late in Iraq, tomorrow and Saturday are holy days, so Sunday they may move things forward and something next week. Could it happen sooner, absolutely, will it, we shall see.
3-7-2013 Intel Guru Goofball WE ARE IN A GOOD SPOT, VERY GOOD. SO NOW WHAT DO U THINK OF THE BUDGET STUFF. ITS BEEN PASSED FOR A WHILE. [What do you make of this: Delta–After CL [Christine Legarde] meeting tomorrow in Jorden, says watch what happens.] JORDAN WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE, WATCH JORDAN NEWS… [Does it have to be printed in the Gazette before it is official?] I HAVE BEEN TOLD THAT. [What do you say about 10-15days to get into the Gazette?] I THINK IT WILL BE VERY VERY SOON. I CANT REALLY GO INTO MANY DETAILS, HOPE U ALL UNDERSTAND.
3-7-2013 Newshound Guru Doc The pressure on Maliki continues. The Kurds tried to squeeze him on the budget and were partially successful. The international community is pressuring by maintaining chapter 7. In fact the people seem to be pressuring him to the point one article said he will announce his resignation. Our opinion here is we will believe that when we see it. Overall the bottom line continues to be the fundamentals to sustain a RV long term are not finished. We do not look for this to happen until Mailiki is neutralized. This will occur only when the politics stop long enough to realize the financial damage not becoming part of the international community will impart. We report, you decide.
3-7-2013 Newshound Guru Doc Most everyone has seen initial reports of the budget being passed. While we are awaiting more confirmations our opinion is it is most likely factual. Based on the report the budget is 138 trillion dinar based on 2.9 million barrels per day at $90 per barrel. The obvious question is what exchange rate was assume. The answer is 1166 and not $3.42 or any other speculated RV rate. The fact is this budget assumes a shortfall in revenue of around 27 trillion dinar which are to be covered by a surplus from last year. The fact that the RV was not exposed in the budget should come to no surprise. First the only way this budget would have been based on a new rate would be for the rate to be released ahead of the budget. Secondly, all is not finished…HCL, chapter 7 etc. are not completed.
3-7-2013 Newshound Guru Adam Montana It’s been posted…a few times already, but I was waiting for actual “Suits-on-the-ground” confirmation – i.e. one of my Iraqi connections – to verify it, because translated articles can be misleading sometimes… but I have confirmation that I am comfortable relying on. The budget HAS been approved. No party yet, but this is definitely cause for a “mini” celebration… this means that the Kurds have finalized a very important part of their negotiations and this is VERY relevant to the next step in the HCL. so, fingers crossed things will move quickly!
3-7-2013 Intel Guru SteveI we confirmed this [OCrush’s post below] and to add to this, yes the very next step is the budget going to the Minister of Finance. From there it will take up to 10 days to get it officially published in the Gazette. So our question to our guys was “can they move the new rate forward prior to the official publishing in the Gazette”? They believe it can. I can not see this country that is hurting financially to wait yet another 10 days. They could, we shall see. We will continue to work on this step as it will be the next to the last step. You are probably asking, next to the last step? Really, what could ever be next. Cashing in. …the finish line is now here. I was going to say close, but I can honest say it is HERE!
3-7-2013 Intel Guru OCrush Ok, they added two more articles at the end of the budget (art. 30 and 31). We are at step #30 (article 30) budget will go to the finance ministry and ministry of planning…they do what they do…then they sent it to to iraqs Federal cabinet. Once they approve it we head to article 31, which means to be published in the official Gazette…retroactive date will state Jan 1, 2013.
3-7-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni So what I expect in the coming weeks (after the basket of laws pass), is Iraq to honor the IMF Stand-by-Agreement terms (remember that? It expired on Feb 23rd, 2013) buy accepting the benchmarks set forth in that agreement. One of which was to move from the closed “currency board” monetary policy the CBI has been in since 2003, to the new “exchange regime” stated in the SBA. It is my opinion, Iraq will move into a free floating currency regime for a period of time to let the world market dictate the rate of the dinar. No matter what regime Iraq chooses, it will begin to raise the value of the currency.
3-7-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Now, something rather important happened yesterday. What occurred was a series of meetings between the USA and Iraq to active a portion of the Strategic Framework Agreement. Though the SFA was signed months ago, parts of it are implemented in stages. The part that was…now activated or now “in force” is the “Trade and Investment” portion of the SFA. This is significant. This is how we are going to see an increase in the value of the dinar. This portion of the SFA is going to push Iraq into a free market economy, thus making Iraq integrate with the world. And as a result of that effort, the New Iraqi Dinar (NID) will become internationally convertible.
3-7-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni First, be assured…there was no RV in the 2013 budget. Parliament has recessed until March 19th. Article quote: “…raising House Speaker Osama Nujaifi session to the 19 of March Current.” So, once again we wait. Over the past several weeks, several articles have surfaced talking about revising the banking law, economic laws, and investment laws. All of which IMO, will be passed in a basket shortly thereafter when Parliament returns. So a best case scenario is at the end of March these laws are passed.