Iran and the next U.S. president
Iran and the next U.S. president
24-10-2012 11:30 AM
Regardless of who is elected on November 6 (November), the Iranian nuclear program will be one of the most important challenges facing the next president. The Iranian leaders did not turn on the current path, and suddenly decide to suspend its uranium enrichment process ongoing, will challenge Iran’s nuclear program continued to take additional steps made by the United States and the international community. From the point of view of the U.S., it is important to bear in mind that both President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and the rejection of the policy of containment after she goes ahead and do so. Under the current pace of efforts Iranian nuclear will the Iranian nuclear program before the end of 2013, the stage is Iran were collected enriched uranium at low levels and medium quantities makes it difficult on the United States to be confident of their ability to prevent Iranian leaders placed the world in front of a fait accompli, the sense that the Iranians may be able to produce a nuclear weapon very quickly, do not leave us plenty of time to prevent it.
Certainly the Iranians may decide to slow down the pace of their efforts, either because of fear of a military response, either in the context of trying to get rid of the sanctions, due to suffering economic plight. But it will require a change in Iranian behavior, although we exclude it, will have President Obama if re-elected, or Governor Romney, who may elect to make a decision regarding the additional steps necessary to achieve the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Perhaps the task is easier for President Obama. It Ayesh repeatedly issue for the past four years. He also developed a strategy to increase pressure on the Iranians, and the price they will pay for their continued defiance of the international community, taking care to secure a diplomatic way out if decided to Askouh. There is no doubt that the Iranians are paying a heavy economic price, as imposed crippling sanctions have caused a sharp drop of Iranian oil production and sales – note that is the main source of revenue for the Iranian government. According to some estimates the value of the currency decline by half every two months, which means that inflation is growing in the form of random, and recorded an increase sharply in the price of products, while losing savings worth, knowing that doing business on an international level is almost impossible.
It is worth mentioning that the Supreme Commander in Iran, which has kept his challenger, described Finally sanctions as ‘brutal’. He always said in the past that the sanctions will force Iran and allow a greater amount of self-sufficiency. And now appeals to Iranian officials to stop blaming each other pests imposed economic sanctions. But these things do not mean that the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will change its position, it means that the strategy of pressure give effect in the eyes of Obama. However, still centrifuges spin, Iranians continue to collect enriched uranium, and eventually, probably looking President Obama for ways to intensify pressure economically and forcibly, what stresses more than the former that the era of diplomatic efforts are nearing completion and that all options are on the table.
Governor Romney coexists with the matter during the past four years. From here and if elected will take time to consolidate the management and review of the matter, note that the probability of acting quickly to address them much less compared with President Obama. But like the President, will see probably be worthwhile promoting economic pressures and military as a way to not only raise the price imposed on the Iranians, but also to send a message to them that: in the event of failed diplomatic efforts will be ready to resort to force.
The attitude and message of this kind, can offer to provide the Israelis with a reason to continue their cooperation with the United States regarding the next steps in confronting Iran. And highlighted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his speech at the United Nations has highlighted the importance of be aware of Iran to the presence of a red line, is not supposed to overtake it in the context of the development of nuclear energy. The Red plan on restricting Iran to enrich uranium moderate degree is enough to make a bomb. Indeed, what he wants to access it is to try to give meaning to prevent and to make sure that Iran will not go beyond the stage that will make prevention impossible. In this regard, imposing more pressure on the Iranians important in the eyes of Israelis, especially because it expresses willingness to do what is necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but it will also be necessary to discuss the views of all of us regarding how to ensure prevention – just as Obama administration do with the Israelis. There is no doubt that this will continue in the event of re-election of President Obama, or in the case became Governor Romney as president.
However, it should be noted one thing likely to offer him the two, as will try each resort to initiative diplomatic more decisive, or to submit a proposal on What will be the final stage. Will not do that just to test the possibility that the effect that Iran may be willing to accept the outcome allow it access to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but with restrictions prevent skipped the scope of enrichment necessary for the production of nuclear weapons. Will not do so just to expose the Iranians before the world and public opinion in the country in case of Tehran’s refusal to such a proposal, but also to prove to the American public that they have made an extra effort, if found to be resorting to force is necessary.
would not resort to any American president to power before putting View of this kind. The talks focused paralyzed between International Group (5 +1) and Iranians in general, on a gradual approach designed to urge the Iranians to show their willingness to make their nuclear program in conformity with international obligations. If possible sufficient time to increase the pressure imposed on them, may succeed approach gradual.
, but with the approach of the year 2013, which is a crucial one way or another, you may see any of President Obama or Governor Romney is an urgent need to accelerate actions diplomacy in order to reach greater clarity. Assuming director diplomat in disagreement with the Iranians on their nuclear program, the tightening of clarity in the options leaders is the only way to reach a solution. * adviser in «The Washington Institute for Near East Policy», positions in the eras of four U.S. presidents as an adviser and negotiator on issues prominent in Middle East.