10-8/9-2012: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
10-9-2012 Intel Guru BWM I have theories and scenarios based on information I have been given. I’m just not comfortable putting that out at this time. That’s as honest as I can be. I will tell you this honestly. Yes, I do think it can happen by the end of the month. I think the street rate will be the same for everyone (IN THE U.S.) and perhaps that rate will be the international rate (hard to say).
10-9-2012 Newshound Guru Fresh For all those that have continued to try and say for the last several months that Maliki is on his way out, etc… I’ve always maintained he’s not going anywhere…Maliki was never in danger of getting a “no confidence vote”…he was installed and supported by the USA…nobody will touch him without our consent…meanwhile we have the crew setting up preparation for the National Conference, finalizing HCL and getting things lined up for Maliki to finally give the stamp of approval… this is all very coordinated right now. I’m sure the key political figures from Iraq are WELL aware of when they have to get these things satisfied or risk huge consequences
10-9-2012 Intel Guru Blaino Some are concerned that people wont think that there would be enough $$ to back the dinar, most of the collected dinar is already destroyed, there will be plenty of $$$.
10-9-2012 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Article: “Iraqi premier supports President Talabani’s initiative” This is still referencing the Friday meeting and in conjunction with my reasoning above…it was most interesting Maliki was first, Allawi second and then back to Najafi. I’m not positive what it means – other than there seems to be quite a bit of activity over the National Meeting. There doesn’t seem to be a long term stall going on here. Maliki seems to be saying (at least) he supports the National Meeting format. However, I’m sure there is some caveat we aren’t aware of yet. Maliki has stuck to this type of rhetoric for awhile. It’s no secret he has stalled as long as possible…but at some point (by his own admission) he may have to give in.
10-9-2012 Newshound Guru Med ALL I CAN SAY ON THEIR VIEWPOINT I TRULY BELIEVE THIS, THE REASON FOR THE COMPLAINTS ON HOLDING OFF ARE THEY SAW THE STICKER PRICE OWED ON THE EXCHANGE. I BELEIVE THAT SHABIBI KNOWS WHAT HE HAS TO COVER AN RV AND HE WOULDNT TRY IT UNLESS HE DID.
10-8-2012 Intel Guru Hammerman The VND…China is pushing it, if they had their way it would go immediately. I do not believe the $2.20 that some people have put out. The most I heard was $.94. I am also hearing $.68, $.69, $.83, and $.84, so I just don’t know. Everybody is saying it will go down this week. My opinion, not intel, is we will not se an RV until after the election, after Nov. 7th, sometime around the 17th & the 20th, I hope I am wrong. Hearing the rate is roughly in the $4.00 range. A lot of confirmation from very high up people that the smart cards are loaded. Heard rates of $1.19, $2.36, $2.22, $1.17, & $3.86 so I don’t know what the rate is. If it revalued in Iraq, it could be 3 – 40 days before we see it publicly to the world. Time will tell, I am telling you what I was told. We are in a better spot than we have ever been. All news is positive.
10-8-2012 Newshound Guru Fresh My take is they are done telling the PUBLIC when this will really happen – which is good. We saw indications in articles earlier this year that they may look to start the process as soon as September 2012 – and then cited January 2013 as an outside window – almost a more logical contingency…So we do the next logical thing and follow the other pieces of the puzzle that may come together at the same time as the RV… That’s why everyone is following the National Conference…Why we want to know what is happening with Erbil, HCL, Ministers, CH 7, etc… these are steps IMO that they are delaying because it will trigger Iraq going International and they need to have all their ducks in a row IMO…the RV is actually a relatively small part of the puzzle when you factor in all the other things like smart cards, government distributions, etc that need to coincide without flaw in harmony…
10-8-2012 Intel Guru TerryK WELL ALOT OF RUMORS BUT I STILL CANT TALK TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN WATCH OUT. I GAVE THEM A WEEK, THATS WHAT I AGREED TO, AFTER THAT THE GLOVES COME OFF. THEY CAN COME AND TAKE ME AWAY AFTER THAT. I WILL TELL U WHATS BEEN GOING ON BEHIND THE WALL, WHAT I KNOW ANYWAY. SOME OF IT JUST WEIRD, SOME OF IT YOU WILL GO NO FRICKIN WAY, AS I DID. IM ALREADY BURSTING…I WANT TO SPILL ALL NOW. WATCH I WILL GET A CALL TONIGHT YET SAYING YOU BETTER NOT. I AM EXPECTING A CALL TONIGHT…THIS IS SPOSE TO BE A GOOD NIGHT FOR SOMETHING.
10-8-2012 Newshound Guru Doc The question we are more curious in is how long will the old currency be legal tender. The good news here is it will be at least until the new currency is issued. This would give us all of 2013 at a minimum to realize appreciation assuming the float option is real. However, many articles have suggested the old would exist for a period of time along side the new currency. Our best option would be for the old to be valid 2 years after the new is issued which was reported to be the plan under the straight RV scenario. As with most of this information only time will reveal the true plan. We simply hope it gets executed soon and Maliki doesn’t thwart this one. We report, you decide. [post 4 of 4]
10-8-2012 Newshound Guru Doc We are of the opinion that Iraq will not issue the new currency this year and the earliest will be late 2013. Shabibi true to his word is quoted as “be put new currency in circulation at the completion of print must be the beginning of the calendar year where it is determined to start implementation and not during. ” This was also his position many months ago. As stated earlier Shabibi has most likely reverted to the “float” option. One article suggested the float would take 2-3 years for the dinar to reach $1. We caution all this is highly dependent on stability of the GOI and economic growth and is nothing more than a huge guess. The other major factor is supply of dinar. A recent article suggested the CBI had already “removed” 20 trillion from circulation. Again this too is speculation. [post 3 of 4….stay tuned]
10-8-2012 Newshound Guru Doc We also have seen the CBI back down from currency reform ie issue of new currency by year’s end. We need to remember that the CBI can not change the currency with [without?] GOI approval. As we stated earlier here again we believe Maliki to be the thorn. We don’t think the CBI is backing down from currency reform but can not proceed with the straight RV option due to non cooperation from the GOI. What is beginning to be quite clear is Maliki is blocking all reform. We also believe Shabibi developed plan B which most likely is the “float” being reported not only inside Iraq but other outlets in other countries. Shabibi does not need the GOI’s blessing to manage exchange rate. Shabibi has also stated he has currency in reserve which can be used until the new currency is issued. We also saw Maliki’s attempt to thwart this plan several months ago when he accused Shabibi and the CBI of corruption. [post 2 of 4….stay tuned]
10-8-2012 Newshound Guru Doc We have several articles confirming a couple of key points we speculated on last week. First, several releases confirmed Maliki is the major roadblock in the political landscape of Iraq. This includes most all the reform such as Ebril, currency, etc. One news outlet reported “President Jalal Talabani seeks to resolve the crisis through the provision of paper carrying visions of all the blocks, asserting that Maliki has the key to solving the crisis agreed to implement what”. This is very consistent with Allawi’s assertion that Maliki has been the roadblock for some time. We continue to assert that the main reason for Maliki’s interference is pressure from Iran and the US all-be-it for different reasons. Other articles continue to report that the issues around Ebril are by far the granddaddy of all the issues. One member of Parliament was quoted as ” …80% of all the infighting results from failure to implement agreement of Ebril”. This again lines up very nicely with Allawi’s synopses as quoted from the interview in London. [post 1 of 4….stay tuned]
10-8-2012 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG I think the National Meeting will go off. I think Barzani and Allawi are making overtures that they will attend. It all looks very good to me. The CBI has said we have done 80% – 90% of the work that needs to be done. They have taken a lot of the currency out of circulation. They need to do something very soon. The CBI is saying we are ready to go once the politics is settled. Ultimately, we are very, very close. The National Meeting is very close to being done, probably a week to 10 days away at the most. Time is on our side, we are in really good shape. [post 2 of 2]
10-8-2012 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG There is a ton of excellent news. All that’s going on, has to go on. Maliki is kind of stirring the pot. Recently there has been a barrage of attacks against the CBI from the GOI, Maliki’s thugs and the Council of Ministers. They want control of the CBI so they can raise the rate of exchange. Do I think they will ever take the CBI over? No, not any where close. Maliki is against everyone because he wants to stay in power. He is making noise like he is trouble…supposedly going to Russia to make some kind of arms deal with Russia. Maliki wants the infrastructure law passed because he will get around the whole Chapter 7 sanctions and will be able to buy weapons & whatever else he wants. The U. N. still has significant sanctions against Iraq but as far as this investment goes, it’s going to go easy or it’s going to go real easy. [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]
10-8-2012 Intel Guru Jonnywg As for the RV, this appears to be an exciting time as the election draws near I feel good at our chances this next period before the election…the information hotlines are heating up and i expect releases of info over the next few days. i will come back when it is received.
10-8-2012 Newshound Guru Kaperoni There is a very good chance that Iraq will not introduce the “new currency” till end of 2013 or sometime in 2014. But that has nothing to do with us as they must raise the value first. And it makes no difference in the budget until the value is greater than the USD. Once the value is greater than the USD, that is when they will make it “official” and start a new year with it on a legal level. Example, the dinar could be worth .10, .50, or even .86 all through 2013. Then in Jan 2014, they could declare “we have deleted the zeros” and all transactions and accounting records are adjusted accordingly as Saleh states. Another example could be a RV at a staging rate of 1 to $1 leaving it in place for 6-12 months as they transition from the current currency to the new currency….and then in Jan 2014 declare…”we have deleted the zeros”. So you can see, the “actual declaring” is simply a date in which zeros are removed and goes into effect in country and more than likely would be at the beginning of a year but has nothing to do with us as most of us will cash out at some rate we are comfortable with.