A new map for energy and trade: Will Iraq become the gateway from the Gulf to the Mediterranean?

A new map for energy and trade: Will Iraq become the gateway from the Gulf to the Mediterranean?

2026-09-26

Shafaq News – Special Translation
The British think tank Chatham House confirmed that Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon are seeking to exploit their geographical location between Europe and the Gulf to strengthen their interconnectedness through networks of oil and gas pipelines, land routes, railways, and digital corridors, noting that these countries were key pillars in the Iranian-led regional system, but their three governments are now seeking to achieve a greater degree of sovereignty.

Chatham House stated in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is contributing to accelerating the pace of the region’s broad reshaping, as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon plan to establish new oil pipelines and transport corridors, but their ability to seize this opportunity ultimately depends on implementing broader reforms.

The report indicated that the war on Iran, and the disruption it caused to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, revealed the fragility of existing trade and energy routes, and also shook the old balance of power in the Middle East region, indicating that the three countries, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, are trying to achieve this under extremely difficult circumstances, as they face foreign occupations and military operations, in addition to suffering from widespread corruption and fragmented political systems that allow armed groups broad influence.

Therefore, he believes that the ability of the three countries to seize this opportunity to strengthen their ties and achieve broader sovereignty will depend not only on the infrastructure they build, but also on their ability to reform state institutions to enable them to manage this infrastructure effectively.

He pointed out that Iraq was greatly affected by the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, explaining that Syria and Lebanon were less affected, given that they are not major oil exporters and have access to the Mediterranean Sea, and that the crisis has led to the possibility of a broader reshaping of trade and energy routes in the region, as countries like Iraq seek new alternatives.

The report went on to say that Beirut and Damascus have an opportunity to consolidate the position of their ports and transport networks as vital gateways linking the Gulf with European markets, within the framework of a reshaped regional trade system.

Iraq-Syria pipeline

He noted that Iraq is working on multiple routes to diversify its export methods, as Baghdad is trying to increase exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea, and is also exploring the possibility of reviving a long-stalled project to extend a pipeline to the Jordanian port of Aqaba on the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Iraq and Syria are working on a new pipeline project that will transport Iraqi oil westward to the Mediterranean Sea, which provides Baghdad with another alternative that reduces its excessive dependence on exporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that the Trump administration supports this plan as part of a strategy aimed at reducing Iran’s regional influence by diversifying export routes away from the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the report, the new network, with a proposed initial capacity of about two million barrels per day, will allow Iraq to divert a large part of its exports away from the Strait of Hormuz, thus limiting the leverage that Iran possesses. It explained that this project will diversify routes and will not be a complete replacement for the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of Iraq’s oil exports pass to Asian markets, especially China and India, markets that are easier to reach from the Gulf more quickly than reaching them via the Mediterranean Sea.

In addition, the report said that Lebanon and Syria are also exploring the possibility of rehabilitating railway lines that could eventually connect the Lebanese coast through Syrian territory with Iraq, Turkey and the Gulf region.

He added that the line could link the Lebanese port of Tripoli to the Syrian city of Homs, a move that could potentially mark the beginning of Syria’s return to its role as a transit country, while turning Tripoli into a potential gateway to the Mediterranean. He emphasized that regional connectivity also seeks to include the digital sphere, with new fiber optic networks passing through Iraq and Syria aiming to provide alternative land routes for the Gulf states to transmit massive amounts of data that are currently transmitted via vulnerable submarine cables.

The report indicated that there is a significant gap between ambition and reality, explaining that Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon are making progress on these infrastructure projects while facing a war they do not control, and while confronting occupations or foreign interventions.

According to the report, in addition to the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon and Israel’s seizure of a buffer zone in southern Syria, energy infrastructure across the Middle East has become a major target for attacks, with more than 100 attacks targeting energy facilities recorded during the first six months of the war. Iran attacked energy facilities in the Gulf region, while Israel targeted fuel storage depots and gas infrastructure inside Iranian territory.

He also pointed out that Iran supports armed groups in Iraq and Lebanon that are capable of threatening vital infrastructure, as happened, for example, against the Iraqi Khor Mor gas field, and the temporary closure of the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, designed to reduce Riyadh’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis launched attacks on Saudi oil tankers and seized control of the coast overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The report explained that the threat to infrastructure is not limited to armed groups allied with Iran, while also recalling that Israel has repeatedly targeted the transport sector’s infrastructure during the current conflict, including in Lebanon, which shows how the conflict can hinder the hoped-for integration.

He considered widespread corruption to be another obstacle, stressing that Iraq, Lebanon and Syria occupy the bottom of the “Corruption Perceptions Index” issued by Transparency International.

The report noted that this is also related to the state of fragmentation that these countries suffer from. However, power in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon remains fragmented among competing political factions, institutions and armed actors, which makes governments unable to guarantee the security and funding of projects, in light of the presence of multiple parties that can obstruct their completion or extract rent-seeking gains from them, creating a large gap between the size of the ambition and the ability to achieve it on the ground.

A relationship that does not guarantee sovereignty

The report continued, saying that the war has enhanced the strategic value of the geographical location of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, explaining that as countries and companies search for alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, these three countries secure potential alternative routes linking the Gulf to the Mediterranean and Europe. However, the ability of the three countries to exploit this opportunity will determine whether these countries are able to shape the post-war regional order, or whether this order will be reshaped without their consent or without their active participation.

He concluded by saying that “connectivity does not equal sovereignty,” noting that while new pipelines, railways and trade corridors can provide these countries with alternatives to the dependency relationships that characterized the old system, they alone are not enough to achieve sovereignty, as it requires the existence of capable institutions that can accomplish and protect these projects.

The report concluded by saying: “If Iraq, Syria and Lebanon want to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the changing regional order, they must do more than just create new cross-border routes,” explaining that “they should build states capable of managing these new links, while ensuring that their benefits reach the general population, not just the elites.”

shafaq.com