9-20-2012: Iraqi Dinar Guru guesses!!!
9-20-2012 Newshound Guru Adam Montana I think the [London Finance] Conference was a great place for some big-wigs to shake hands…but the deals and agreements that need to be made to proceed with something as massive as an RV of the Iraqi Dinar is NOT something to discuss at an open table. It would have been a great place to ANNOUNCE it, but that didn’t happen, so I’m not going to read too much into who was there or what could have happened.
9-20-2012 Newshound Guru SWFloridaGuy They could never come out and say they are going to revalue their currency. The CBI simply stating a redenomination should be exactly what we expect. If Iraq was planning a straight redenomination with no significant rate increase they would have never spent this much time studying the long term effects, in-country (and out) security issues, counterfeiting, effects of dedollarization and how to institute a market-based economy where they are respected as a borrow in the eyes of global capital markets. I have no doubt that we will profit from this, my doubts lie with the timing and the profit margin. All we can do is have some faith and hope for the best.
9-20-2012 Intel Guru Frank26 We will talk about the Financial Conference in London. It’s a financial conference, but they couldn’t talk about the currency, isn’t that ironic. They talked about how to improve Iraq’s economy, how to modernize the banking systems, and about building trust not only with the international community but within their own community. They told the financial institutions attending, we have reformed, we have made progress, we have our act together. They talked about how to make money with the investors & said everything they were asking of the investors would help build their infrastructure. The deputy prime minister painted a vision of how they will grow and promised that their money would be secure. He told them that they needed their help. Shabibi did not speak on the first day. They did everything possible to let them know that they are ready.
9-20-2012 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Article: “Talabani told al-Maliki: National Meeting end of next week” Sounds a lot like Talibani is pointing towards the end of this coming week for the National Meeting. Be on the look out for an announcement. I truly think they have something to pressure Maliki into doing the right thing. If he doesn’t – he’s gonesville. IMHO.
9-19-2012 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Talabani, Maliki and Najafi were in the Kurdistan region today. They are in the meeting right now. The heads up will be the politics are all taken care of. Be watching for a National Conference being announced very soon. This is all laying out perfectly. With the exception of an RV…it is about as good as it gets. Will bring updates as soon as we get more info.
9-19-2012 Intel Guru Blaino There are 3 ways the currency can be controlled: 1. It can be full floating which means there will absolutely be no restrictions. It will start where it is right now at 1162. 2. Pegged to a single currency. It is now pegged to the U.S. dollar – 1162 to 1. 3. Peg it to a basket of currencies. This is the one everyone wants. I just don’t think that is what is going to happen. If they do a float, that’s the end of the LOP theory.
9-19-2012 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [Do you think that Iraq needs a current census taken before the HCL can go into effect?] We know that we can count on the value of the dinar being exactly what they say it is – 1166, right? We know we can count on them to maintain the value of the Dinar, control inflation, and keep their money in check. The SAME THING goes for the census issue. If they were to RV to a very high rate, like $3 – they would need EXACT numbers and a very sophisticated system to maintain that value. But RVing to anything lower, like in the .10 to $1 range, gives them more flexibility and room for error. My point is that they may not have an exact census, but they are in control of their economy and I would ascertain that they have SUFFICIENT information to make this, and the HCL, work.
9-19-2012 Newshound Guru Adam Montana last week I was a bit annoyed with the situation in Libya. When something like that happens, you never know what’s going to happen. It looks like things didn’t exactly blow over, but they have not escalated, so I say we are right back on track…it has simmered down enough to move forward. Iraq needs to move forward with a higher valued currency, and they will – despite the noise in Libya, Iran, etc. If they are in the middle of a major WAR – of course it’s not going to RV. But in a situation like now – they can do it.
9-19-2012 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Article: “Three presidencies held a meeting to discuss the political situation in Iraq” This agenda is just crazy!! They are telling us what they are going to talk about…Article 140 (the Kurdish issue), the NCSP Policy Board (Allawi’s part of the Erbil agreement), the seating of the final two ministers (Defense and Interior – the actual power sharing part of the Erbil agreement), the HCL law (how everyone gets paid) and finally having a National Conference. Holy smokes – that’s the whole story right there!! WOW!!!
9-19-2012 Intel Guru Blaino Maliki will not be coming to the U.S. There are 2 ministers that were chosen & are coming to talk to the UN. The London Conference is up and rolling. I’m looking for them to unlock the dinar tomorrow [Wednesday]. It’s a possibility that these people in London right now are very likely making assurances to their guests to let them know that this is their intent. The deal is signed, it is inked. I know a lot more about it, but I can’t disclose it for complicated reasons. There’s a lot of detail that will come to light down the road. It’s all good. More & more things are starting to happen very fast. I think we are going to see this thing start moving. I don’t think we are in the theory world anymore, we are in the been done world & now we are looking for the release. We are in a great place.
9-19-2012 Intel Guru BWM two contacts in Iraq today stated that there was an “influx” of ppl [people] (particularly professionals) making the move from other countries into Baghdad and the region…when there is such a “distressed” period and so much violence why would ppl leave lives they had established to come back to the area. Also with M [Maliki] not in NY apparently but instead in Iraq there is discussions about meetings being possible. IMO as I “believe” that Iraq has really nothing left to accomplish I also “believe” they will be shown some bit of gratitude and allowed to “present” the first traces of the RV internationally… key on the international part. my biggest thought process is what combination of Shabibi, M [Maliki] , and T [Talabani] all need to be “in country” to show their ppl.
9-19-2012 Intel Guru Footforward Also, this thing about a currency float. There are groups that believe that Iraq will just RV, snap your fingers and you have a new high rate, it’s all over & done with in seconds. Others believe in an RI which is basically reinstates the old rate of $3.22, or $3.86 with 20% added for inflation. Then there are people that think it will be a float, where it will come out low, $.05 or $.10 & then they will let the market drive it up. I don’t know why anyone thinks this is plausible. There is no chance. The rate that comes out is going to be controlled. It’s not going to come out @ $.10 & then float up. Also, they need to open one of their budgets. All of the budgets that have come out in the last several years are well above $1. [post 2 of 2]
9-19-2012 Intel Guru Footforward They had a conference last year similar to the London Conference & 90% of the guest list didn’t show up because Iraq had not RV’ed. A lot of dealers, investors and big money people are in London & without an RV & yet they have convinced them to come, so this is interesting. There is a lot of international pressure on Iraq. There’s all kinds of proof out there that the ministers positions have been filled & the HCL & Erbil is done. Talabini is back, but he is not the trigger. They want to RV, they have to RV and it will be at a good rate. From and Iraqi standpoint it helps nothing & accomplishes nothing to have it RV at $.35 and then float up. I think the rate is going to be high & I don’t expect it to float. I am still looking for it right away. [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]
9-18-2012 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG Talabani is back, came in on a private jet, no fanfare. Talabani, Maliki and Najafi are to meet in Kurdistan tomorrow prior to a National Meeting and possibly call for the National Meeting sometime next week. This is what I think will happen, they will have the National Meeting and settle everything then they will RV pretty quick. I had a call from a big info group that said on the agenda is Supreme Council policies with Alawi, the resolution of the Security Ministries, Article 140 and the oil & gas law. I was totally stunned, look for that to come out in the news. It’s breathtaking that they will be talking about these things. Maliki is going into hostel territory. IMO, if he plays ball, we are in good shape, but if he doesn’t, they are already talking about his replacement. If the politics get handled first, everything else comes after.