3 scenarios for the formation of the next government … and the negotiations may take a full year
3 scenarios for the formation of the next government … and the negotiations may take a full year
05.03.2014 (0:01 pm)
Translation term
The elections have few previous few surprises, and it seems that the current elections are no different in that its predecessors.
in 2009, swept the list of the prime minister, a coalition of state law, areas in the south and Baghdad in the local elections for the provinces to build on his success against the Mehdi Army militia of Sadr in Basra and Missan and Baghdad, and the military campaign against insurgents in Mosul, and the defiance of the response on the disputed areas a year earlier. The Islamic Supreme Council is the biggest loser because of poor performance after winning a landslide victory in 2005.
In 2010, show that al-Maliki will gain a big win, but the Iraqi List, it outperformed a single seat. Maliki was resorting to the courts to get a ruling allowing him to form a coalition after the election, rather than the winner so. Then play the chord divisions within the Iraqi List, and the fear of the Kurdish parties for the Iraqi List, a second term. In the provincial elections of 2013, the State of Law coalition lost seats because of bad governance. More importantly, the Sadrists and the Supreme Council They form a cross-sectarian alliance in order to prevent state law from winning new local governments.
It seems that most observers expect the Iraqi prime minister for most of the seats in parliament, and then performs a very lengthy negotiations could take a full year, and guaranteed himself another four years in office.
He hopes that the Prime Minister backed Shiite base because of the fear of escalating armed action and gives him a lot of votes. After you will be able to play on the splits within the Sunni parties for an alliance with Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq. If they gave it momentum, the other parties, as it is known in Iraqi politics, will jump to ensure that the same positions in the new government.
An alternative scenario could play it. In the last year managed the Supreme Council of the truncated base-Maliki and said he hoped to repeat it again. I have pictures himself a national party supported by the religious establishment in Najaf. Believes that block free bra can sustain the alliance that formed in 2013 with the election of the Supreme Council. If they approached the number of seats in Maliki is everyone’s right to form the majority needed to form a new government.
Can Shiite religious parties (al-Sadr and al-Hakim) playing on a shared hatred for the prime minister and that shares their lists of other such united under the leadership of Speaker Osama Najafi and KDP leader Massoud Barzani, in order to meet state law. In previous years, al-Maliki was able to play on the differences of his opponents, but the opposition to this year could be stronger enough to unite them. This could give the prime minister a chance 50-50 to stay in office.
But the problem is that the process of determining the real winner will take months, and at the same time, the case will remain what it is now.
It should also note that if the opposition won the factions of the owners they will not be able to form a majority government without the participation of the state of law, the courts are under the control of al-Maliki, it is quite possible that control them to veto any alliance is not covered. A third possibility is that the process of government formation will turn into a dead-end to the extent that al-Maliki to resign as prime minister, but will demand that keeps the coalition of state law office. And this will require a new candidate from within the menu. Except Higher Education Minister Ali al-Adeeb, the rival of the owners, the party lacks the other members of the senior. Here again, the prime minister was in charge of compromise in the Dawa party, before taking the lead in 2005, so it will be a precedent that shows a person from the wings to assume power. It can also be the Deputy Prime Minister Hussain al-Shahristani from the list of (independent) another alternative. Finally, there is the role played by external forces. It seems that the Obama administration is trying to engage again in Iraq because of escalating violence, but they are likely to try to play the role of neutral and ensures only that the process is as fair as possible.
This does not apply to the other players, in the case of Turkey, attracting about D-Maliki, but allied with the united and with the Kurdistan Democratic Party. Can be paid Monday to work together in their opposition to the prime minister. Also, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states stand against al-Maliki, but it also opposes the rule of Shiites in general, but that is deadlocked because of the sectarian quota system, which it believes the ruling parties, which will determine the influence.
Finally, Iran could play a pivotal role, has supported al-Maliki to maintain the status quo in Iraq because they are more interested in the fighting in Syria now. Here also can get angry because of al-Maliki played “divide and conquer” with Kurdish and Shiite parties that have close ties with Tehran, which has led to political instability in Iraq. The Iran to change the game if they weighed in favor of the Supreme Council and the Sadrists during the negotiations to form a new government. All these factors seem to be Iraq’s elections in 2014 will have a lot of surprises.
About: Thoughts on Iraq
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