“Without radical reform.” The Washington Institute: The collapse of the state in Iraq is “inevitable.”
“Without radical reform.” The Washington Institute: The collapse of the state in Iraq is “inevitable.”
12:42 – 03/06/2021
The information
A report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy confirmed, Thursday, that if the current political situation in Iraq continues as it is without fundamental reform, the collapse of the state is inevitable.
The report, which was translated by / the information, stated that “unless there is a continuous decline in oil prices, the collapse of Iraq is likely to be gradual, and unfold through a continuous series of severe crises and bottlenecks, and it seems that this is the path that Iraq is currently taking, with the intensification of corruption Within the state and the parties that rule without worrying about the interest of the people and the future of the country. In addition, Iraq faces a persistent lack of services, lack of social justice, and widespread unemployment and poverty.
He added, “The only reason for the failure of the Iraqi government completely in the past years is the abundance of oil revenues that covered the state’s operational expenses and were sufficient for all parties to distribute their shares. However, this previous financial abundance is in danger due to low oil prices, and inflated spending on the bloated public sector.” and increasing operating expenses. The day will come when the state will not be able to manage its finances. As such, the pace of the state’s collapse will accelerate with the first sharp drop in oil prices. Examples of this danger emerged with the state’s inability to pay employees for several consecutive months when the oil price fell below $40 a barrel last year.
He continued, “The Ministry of Finance has resorted to devaluing the Iraqi dinar by about 23% against the US dollar to prevent a financial collapse, and although the measure severely affected the local market and worsened the living conditions of all Iraqis to varying degrees, but in addition to the recovery of the global oil market and the return of The oil price reached $70 a barrel, these strict measures allowed the government to pay government salaries while showing the fragility of government revenues in Iraq .”
He explained, “In the event that the situation deteriorates further, the most likely scenario is the administrative collapse of the current system and the decline of the government’s role in managing limited business with control over certain areas including central Baghdad and the Green Zone, and in this case, the government will lack legitimacy and lose control over Some governorates of IraqIt is possible that parties in some provinces will refuse to fully recognize the central government.”
The report indicated that “the current situation in Iraq requires radical solutions to avoid the potential catastrophic repercussions of the current situation, and this can only be achieved if political parties, religious leaders and civil society work together to save what can be saved and return the country to a place of civil peace and coexistence.” They must take the lead in building sustainable development and consensus around a series of common solutions.” finished/ 25 z
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