With “Gulf cooperation”… an American opportunity to support Al-Sadr and “crawl” Iran into Iraq

With “Gulf cooperation”… an American opportunity to support Al-Sadr and “crawl” Iran into Iraq

2022-09-13 07:28

With Gulf cooperation... an American opportunity to support Al-Sadr and crawl Iran into IraqShafaq News/ The American “National Review” magazine saw, on Tuesday, that there is an opportunity available for the United States to seize, in order to pressure Iran and stop “coddling it”, calling for undermining Tehran’s grip in Iraq, by supporting the movements of Sadrist leader Muqtada Al-Sadr, in cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The American report, translated by Shafak News Agency, stated that in light of the “major crisis” now in Iraq, Iran is trying to maintain its influence there, although its strategic position is “eroding,” considering that Washington has a clear opportunity to curb Iranian power, calmly and cautiously, and it must seize this The opportunity to press more to weaken Tehran’s focus and undermine its grip on Iraq.

The “heart” of the Middle East

The report identified the importance of Iraq to Iran, saying that it is at the heart of its interests in the Middle East, and that it is the only Shiite-majority country in the region except for Iran, and that it enjoys huge oil reserves, and it constitutes a potential route for the illegal export of oil, adding that it is a “cemetery for American and Baathist power.” It is also a geographical bridge linking the Zagros Mountains with the Mediterranean Sea.

Therefore, the report believes that Iraq should fall under Iran’s control if it seeks to be a regional power, considering that pressure on Iran’s proxies in Syria, as the Donald Trump administration did at least secretly, will lead to curbing Iran’s power, but the pressure On Iran in Iraq, it would represent a “mortal threat” to Iran’s strategic interests in the region.

In this context, the report mentioned the importance of the assassination of the Iranian Quds Force commander General Qassem Soleimani in the year 2020, returning him to an experienced military, political and bureaucratic engine, and an architect of Iranian influence in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, and enjoying the respect and loyalty of a variety of Iraqi paramilitary forces, through which they were Iran exerts its influence towards the Iraqi state.

Shiite division

And after the report talked about “the volatile Iraqi politics” and the division of Shiites in the Middle East between loyalty to Iran, Iraq, Najaf and Qom, and that Muqtada al-Sadr had earlier received support from Iran against the United States, but he made it clear that these ideological players are “Machiavellians, and they change their biases according to the threats they face.

He noted that with the withdrawal of the United States and the rise of ISIS, al-Sadr abandoned his temporary alliance with Iran and positioned himself and his movement as a counterweight to Iran.

The report returned to the issue of Washington’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, considering that it caused the undermining of the Iranian leadership structures in Iraq, and the slow disintegration of Iran’s strategic position, which eventually led to the current turmoil in Iraq, which was represented in the storming of the “Green Zone” by al-Sadr’s supporters. , occupying the presidential palace and attacking the militias loyal to Iran.

green events

The report pointed out that the incidents of the Green Zone, and the previous conflicts between al-Sadr’s bloc allied with the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Sunni coalition, and the forces backed by Iran, reflect al-Sadr’s strength in the confrontation with Iran, which must now respond.

He explained that Iran can now either retreat and accept new elections, and allow Sadr’s alliance to form a government, which will jeopardize its influence in Iraq, or it will be able to escalate the cycle of violence and seek to exclude al-Sadr, noting that Iran so far, seems to be out of balance. between these two options.

While the report indicated that no player had an incentive to back down in light of the current crisis, and that Sadr showed his strength, and Iran was challenged, it considered that the Kurds and Sunnis do not have to take sides while the Shiites are divided in their struggle for the authority of the federal government.

The right American moment

Therefore, the report believes that the moment is appropriate for the United States to intervene and exert pressure on Iran quietly, not through a major confrontation, explaining that Washington can provide Muqtada al-Sadr a lot of support, secretly and indirectly, pointing out that the Sadrist leader has relations with the Saudis and Emiratis, and he can benefit from it, and that the United States can use it to support it.

While the report indicated that there is a “clear and reasonable” convergence between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi with the US policy towards Iran, and that Saudi Arabia and the UAE do not trust that Washington will engage strongly in the region or thwart the Iranian nuclear penetration, it considered that the strong involvement of the United States in the Iraq issue, from It would reflect the US commitment to the region.

While the report pointed out that Washington does not have to engage in the task of mediating and position itself between Iran and the Gulf states, and that in return, it must “exercise quiet pressure behind the scenes to encourage a hardening of the chest in the face of Iran’s demands, and seek to gain Emirati and Saudi support for the opposing forces.” Iran in Iraq.

The report also called on Washington to indicate to the Kurdish and Sunni players that the United States would accept the formation of a coalition government from which Iranian agents would be excluded.

The report concluded by saying that “Iran will then be forced to either retreat and accept the strategic setback, or it will escalate, which will give the United States a point of pressure on Iran, and an issue that will enable it to unite its coalition of sometimes divided regional allies.”

He concluded by saying that this show of American power would constitute, for Iran, a signal that the United States is aware of the difficulties it is facing and will exploit them, adding that “if the administration of President Joe Biden is smart, it will realize that Iran is working directly in coordination with the United States’ biggest enemy.” The United States, and that it should be pushed, not coddled,” which will bring many benefits to Washington in the short and long term.