Iraq’s oil shock lifted safe-haven currencies

Iraq’s oil shock lifted safe-haven currencies

2014/7/1 10:56:04 AM

Iraqs oil shock lifted safe-haven currenciesBAGHDAD / Wi-News

Resulting in sudden rise in world oil prices because of the violence in Iraq to defend the safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc despite the fact that Japan and Switzerland two Mistordtan crude.

Since the escalation of violence this month and rising oil prices kept on Mkasphma currencies in defiance of the point of view that rising crude prices usually translate into significant gains for oil-exporting countries and their currencies.

And contributes to the rise in prices to improve the balance of trade for oil exporters such as Canada, Norway and pay their currencies to rise. In contrast, it hurts the importing countries for raw materials.

However, investors fear that the supply shock could hurt the global recovery and expectations linked currencies trade in primary commodities less liquidity and higher risk.

The amputation Cirbeta expert currencies have no. Said. G “does not benefit those shocks usually risk appetite increases as concerns about global growth and be accompanied by a fall in stock prices.”

Brent crude jumped eight percent since May to reach its highest level in nine months at 115.71 dollars a barrel in mid-June due to fears that the violence in Iraq affect oil production. And any interruption will cause damage where the Iraqi oil about 11 percent of OPEC production.

So far there are no indications little likelihood of significant outages has dropped the price of oil which is somewhat of activity in the currency market. But investors exchange market watched whether the fighting will extend to the south of Iraq.

Iraq and ship about 90 percent of its oil exports from the south of the country, an area so far unaffected by the unrest. And will any setback for the government there to increase the demand for the most liquid currencies such as the yen and the dollar and the Swiss franc.

The rising demand for the three currencies in conjunction with the financial market turmoil and uncertainty about the global economy. And those currencies firmed slightly this year, despite the surge of the shares and the good performance of the high-risk currencies.

The Canadian dollar fell and the Norwegian krone four percent against the yen since the beginning of 2014 and recorded a sub-par performance of currencies despite the rise in oil prices, which increased three percent this month.

Said Mark McCormick expert at Credit Agricole The cycle of growth-linked currencies and trade of commodities such as the New Zealand dollar and the Australian, Canadian and Norwegian krone in the past, the biggest beneficiaries of the sustained increase in oil prices.

Analysts said the rise in oil prices is not always harmful to the economies or the financial markets. If the GDP is already strong, increasing energy demand and rising stock markets and currencies linked to growth can coexist smoothly.

Said Jeremy Hill expert macroeconomic at Citi, “when oil prices caused by supply shortages, lower volumes and higher prices hurts economic activity .. in fact associated with each recession in the United States since the mid-seventies by high oil prices, except at once.”