Iraq: There are no signs of a “framework” and “tripartite” agreement, and the leadership dispute extends to the year and heralds a new crisis
Iraq: There are no signs of a “framework” and “tripartite” agreement, and the leadership dispute extends to the year and heralds a new crisis
5-1-2022
Al-Sadr’s deadline (40 days ending after Eid al-Fitr) for the political blocs to form the new Iraqi government is nearing its end, amid the continuing “political blockage” and the absence of signs looming on the horizon to resolve the file of the largest parliamentary bloc, choose a new president for the republic, and form the new government, while it extended The Shiite-Shiite and Kurdish-Kurdish dispute, to the Sunni house, which has completed half the way by choosing the Speaker of the House of Representatives “Parliament” and is waiting for his share in the government booth.
Observers of Iraqi political affairs, with the impact of the emergence of Rafie al-Issawi, Ali Hatem al-Sulaiman, and Sunni political figures, gather the political standing of al-Halbousi among the Sunnis, especially since his alliance “Progress” won the largest number of Sunni parliamentary seats in the October elections, more than 35 a seat.
The Iraqi writer and political analyst, Ali Al-Baydar, told Al-Quds Al-Arabi that “there is no doubt that the return of Ali Hatem Al-Sulaiman and Rafi Al-Issawi to the political scene again, will affect the influence, role, and position of Al-Halbousi politically and socially, which threatens the fragmentation of the Sunni house, in light of the various parties Divergent view of these characters.
He added: “The (tribal) Anbar community may go towards aligning with Suleiman, who is approaching with al-Issawi, which is likely to erupt a Sunni crisis at a time when the Sunni household was witnessing relative calm.”
Some Shiite parties want more than one Sunni political figure (leaders) to “take advantage of the gains left by sectarian, sectarian and nationalist alignments in the country,” according to al-Baydar, who explained that this trend is matched by another “reformist” trend that wants to increase the national space in the political and governmental scenes.
The Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Muhammad al-Halbousi, visited Iran last Wednesday, at the invitation of his counterpart Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf, accompanied by a parliamentary delegation.
During his one-day visit to Tehran, Al-Halbousi met with the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, and a number of Iranian officials there.
The date and reasons for the visit raised several questions, including news that al-Halbousi had resorted to Iranian leaders to find a way out of the crisis of al-Issawi and Suleiman’s reappearance in the political scene.
In this regard, Al-Baydar believes that “Al-Halbousi’s visit to Iran comes to activate the Iranian role in finding a way out of the political shutdown that Iraq is witnessing, and to give the national parties a greater role.”
The Iraqi writer and political analyst did not rule out Al-Halbousi’s request from Iran to “remove some opponents, by putting pressure on Shiite parties that have attracted them and are trying to exploit their presence to weaken Al-Halbousi.”
This coincides with news that Sunni political forces met to agree to form a “new Sunni bloc” and include political figures from the “Sovereignty” coalition aligned with the Sadrist movement and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, to end al-Halbousi’s control and his uniqueness in the political decision.
And political sources told local news websites close to the Shiite “coordinating framework,” that “a meeting took place (last weekend) at the house of the Secretary-General of the National Project, Jamal Al-Dari, and in the presence of all the leaders of the Sunni political forces, with the exception of Khamis Al-Khanjar and Muhammad Al-Halbousi, to discuss the latest developments in the political situation. ».
According to the sources, “the Sunni forces agreed to start attracting representatives of the Sovereignty Alliance in the coming days, and to announce the new political alliance headed by Muthanna al-Samarrai, who is the head of the Azm Alliance.”
She pointed out that “the new project aims to end Al-Halbousi’s seizure of power and open dialogue with the coordination framework in order to block the tripartite alliance project and pass the President of the Republic.”
The scene may seem complicated within the “Save the Nation” alliance and warn of the possibility of the newly emerging alliance fracturing, but Al-Baydar ruled out the fragmentation of the tripartite alliance “Save the Nation”, considering that talk about this is “just rumors and nothing more.” He also considered that the Sadr-Barzani-Al-Halbousi and Al-Khanjar alliance is “more solid and coherent” and competes with other figures “who profit from corruption and the influence of weapons in the country” in reference to the Shiite “coordinating framework”.
But he went on to say: “The coordinating framework will not be able to form the new government even if al-Sadr gives them 40 days,” explaining that “the framework will not be able to form a government without al-Sadr, and vice versa. Consensus is the shape of the political culture in Iraq and the making of its system.
Al-Baydar stressed that “the current stage cannot compel one party to go to the opposition and impose another party on power.”
He added: “No matter how much the political parties try and maneuver, there is no inevitable consensus, provided that it is based on electoral weight, and that those who want to participate in the government and those who want go to the opposition, but with their will and not under duress, as is the case in the parties emanating from the October movement and the independents. Those who announced their position adopted the reformist reformist opposition in Parliament.
He concluded by saying: “There are no signs of making concessions to any party in order to meet the constitutional requirements. The current political behavior increases the state of people’s loss of confidence in the political system, and confirms that the latter works in favor of narrow factional goals related to parties, components or regions, and does not view the country as a state,” noting that “the concept of statesmen seeking reform within political, party, governmental, legislative, and supervisory work, absent”.
On the other hand, the researcher and expert on Iraqi affairs, Ihsan Al-Shammari, identified two paths to get out of the crisis of forming the government in the country.
Al-Shammari said in a research paper, “The failure of the Iraqi political forces to pass the President of the Republic entered Iraq into a constitutional vacuum and a violation of the periods specified by the constitutional texts, which raised questions about the paths out of the political blockage.”
Under the “political path”, Al-Shammari stated that it is achieved “through the re-formation of alliances by infiltrating the ranks of the Sadrist bloc (the coordination framework) and either attracting some forces to its side, or by the Shiite framework taking a similar step, and this scenario is difficult to achieve.”
Also, «returning to the formation of the government according to the principle of consociationalism, could be the ideal solution to the political impasse, but Muqtada al-Sadr will be the biggest loser in it. The forty days that Muqtada al-Sadr gave to the Shiite coordination framework to form a government with their allies may be the last chance, but the frameworks realize that Sadr’s goal is to become the blocking third preventing the process of achieving the majority project, which is what prompted him to distance himself from the issue of obstruction and throw the ball in The coordination framework stadium, especially in light of popular resentment over the delay in forming the government, and then they realize that it is an attempt to embarrass the parties to the coordination framework in front of Iraqi public opinion as well, with the difficulty of obtaining a parliamentary majority, so they do not have the ability and tools to form the majority while realizing that going Muqtada al-Sadr to the opposition, the price of which will be the dissolution of parliament and the fall of their government within months.”
Regarding the other option, “the constitutional path,” Al-Shammari says that “in the event that the political impasse continues, it may resort to dissolving parliament and going to new early elections, and this may be through the submission of a request by one of the parliamentary blocs according to Article 64 first of the constitution, which states that “the parliament shall be dissolved.” Representatives, by an absolute majority of its members, at the request of one-third of its members, or a request from the Prime Minister and with the approval of the President of the Republic.
He suggested that “the Sadrist bloc would make this choice as a political response to its inability to form a majority government that it adopted, or a new parliamentary bloc would make it like the extension movement, close to Tishreen, but it would not get the required number of votes, because most forces were not convinced of this option.”
He also pointed out that «the other constitutional path to dissolving Parliament is for the Federal Court to issue a decision clarifying the possibility of finding a way out of the current constitutional vacuum, or to issue a decision based on a request submitted to it that may occur as a result of a rapprochement between the parties supporting the option of dissolving Parliament, with the presence or exercise of pressure from Political forces outside Parliament and civil society organizations, by resorting to the Federal Court in order to demand the cancellation of the elections and the organization of new elections, in addition to the fact that the political parties will find themselves obliged to request the opinion of the Federal Court on the possibility of re-electing or acknowledging the Parliament’s failure to elect the president, as the declaration of A state of emergency is unlikely, and it is part of the process of pressure exerted by political forces on those boycotting parliament sessions.”
He concluded by saying: «All political options are open in Iraq to the repeated state of blockage since 2010 until now».
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