Is Iraq collapses if Talabani died?

Is Iraq collapses if Talabani died?

Published 30/12/2012 09:25 AM

Babinaoz – Peter Galbraith : At this stage, the long-term prediction for the Iraqi president, Jalal Talabani, who has suffered a stroke and clear this week, it is not true.

He was my friend for 25 years and I hope that the same will be led by fungal during this latest crisis. After all, it has been challenged until at length to become the first democratically elected president of the state in the millennial history of the place is the cradle of civilizations. It is therefore too early for reliable predictions box, but it certainly will be out of work for some time – and will be his lack.

Talabani, who gave his life for the cause of Kurdish nationalism, has been described Palmouhd – in fact, it may be the only common symbol between senior Iraqi leaders. There is a certain irony to this because Talabani remains a Kurdish nationalist. The president has tirelessly defended the rights of Kurdistan under the Iraqi constitution. But strong personality, he has used Talabani’s office largely honorary President of the Republic to calm disputes between Shiites, Sunnis and Iraqi Kurds. A result, the editor of mediation. Most recently, he won consensus of the Kurdish regional government and the federal government to withdraw their troops from the disputed areas around Kirkuk. In other cases, they mediate in conflicts between Sunni and Shiite, and even within the Shiite community.

Talabani deal is unique. It is almost warm with everyone, and is considered his work exists Baglbh for reasons of protocol, which is most distant from President official, he greets visitors with kisses, jokes and culture, and in the invitations personally serve his guests. And one favorite Aclath are turkeys and whole bird often be on his desk. And more than once, he asked me, “Do I have to cut the turkey?” Drawer leg correct “about the south-east!, But manipulating it was rare to be reckless, he was co-Talabani politicians and government officials respect him not so much because of his, but because of its decision-making in Mtmona and struggle long-term against the dictatorship. All this makes it difficult to replace him. Wisdom traditional is that the Kurds will want to replace it as – if it came to it – Pkrda another. but, in fact, wanted Kurds Talabani as president because he was a symbol prominent among Iraqi political leaders neo-To address the practical problems there positions presidential to commanders of the main Kurdish (Massoud Barzani President Kurdistan Democratic Party, became head of the province Kurdish). has not care Kurds now retain the post of president of the republic much if not President Hu Talabani. Kurds want to recognize Baghdad constitutional rights of the regional government of the Kurdish oil and hold the referendum provided for in the Constitution of Kirkuk and the rest of the disputed territories . and believe that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is the main obstacle to those goals and fear as well, including believe he is trying to increasingly practice directions dictatorship. Therefore, the Kurds might be flexible on the presidency if there was a deal and wide replace Maliki with the commander wants to accept Kurdish demands. and Talabani – as a peacemaker Permanent – has helped to curb the idea to withdraw confidence from Maliki earlier this year., the Kurdish bloc in addition to supporters of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi were holders of the number of votes required to change the Prime Minister., but this is due to good management Talabani conciliator, It would be the Kurds in a strong position even after he leaves office. When the war approached in 2003 developed Talabani close working relationship with his opponent at one time by Massoud Barzani, and the son of Talabani talented, Qubad, is now head of the office of Prime Minister of the Kurdish region Nechirvan Barzani. and bipartisan In Kurdistan, today, the Party of Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, working in coalition leadership meetings frequently away from the brash 15 years ago when Tqatla in a Kurdish civil war atrocities.

And his government elected Kurdish region and strong army, the Peshmerga, are in a strong position in the face of al-Maliki and the federal government face to face. Economy thrives Kurdistan and the Kurdish regional government increasing links with the outside world, especially neighboring Turkey. (In contrast, Maliki relationship with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is poisonous). And not to Baghdad neither the authority nor influence in Arbil. Under the Iraqi constitution, the Kurdish parliament can amend or cancel any federal law in its application to Kurdistan. In practice, however, the federal government issued a few laws and the Kurdistan mostly ignores. The conflict between the Kurdish regional government and al-Maliki is a confrontation between the two parties tied, could not one to impose his will on the other.

Therefore, the absence of Talabani may feel fact Baglbh by Iraqi sects least force such as the Kurds. During the recent Iraqi civil war, he gave Talabani and Barzani Kurdish safe incubator for Christians and other Iraqis fleeing sectarian violence.

Even before he became president in 2005, has continued Talabani with Sunni elders – many of whom had Bsfrat to see Kurdish leader based in the back for a break in the Lake Dukan – in an effort to keep them from feeling collectively marginalized. In the summer of 2005, when the Iraqi political elite focused and American decision-makers on the constitutional negotiations, was growing concern Talabani is the Shiite death squads – which was linked to the Interior Ministry – which was targeting Sunnis. The hard work of Talabani with the traditional leaders of the year to give them a degree of confidence which was the key to their cooperation – through the sons of the Awakening – in the fight against al Qaeda. Talabani is the hero who has not Itagn poets in Taza successes usually to Gen. David Petraeus in the plan to increase U.S. troops.

And mediation of Talabani failed mostly lacking attitude. Religious فالطوائف and Iraqi national has mixed views mainly on the future of Iraq: Shiite religious parties are dominant now want to define Iraq as a Shiite state, while Sunni Arabs see Iraq as part of Arab nationalism (Sunni) major. Even with the acceptance of many Sunnis now losing their privileges that they had enjoyed during the 80 years of the history of Iraq, few agree that Iraq must know a Ataatdmenhm way. The Kurds, of course, came out of it. While the unresolved Talabani most continuous threads Iraqi (part because it can not be resolved), it helped convince every variety that there’s more to gain from the policy rather than violence. And sectarian divisions and Iraqi national, has paralyzed the federal government has repeatedly – and only Talabani contribution to understanding the government’s paralysis is better rather than for them to have a group to impose its will on the other. There are many potential successors to Talabani as president, but Iraq needs to be someone who can dictate its location. Not one of the successors Talabani many can do that.